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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 ; }3 D  \% t, C9 X: M) X
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( O* f7 m5 S, ?& _/ x, V0 m$ C- ?只跟踪一个联赛/ |7 b5 ]+ [0 [4 w/ x" H2 k
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* h( u0 o  m8 v. q全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔0 `) j) |1 M" ]) B

6 I+ s' W4 C' A/ ?0 J, R三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。: L" ~' X9 B8 s* i; P' W
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）8 b2 c9 J. v, M) `! q5 y6 a; s- \
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱6 x, J# h: q. a: W: a- z
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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) [9 b, \5 _. ]7 k$ l) k
* M; ?* [; @9 D+ R1 H: @亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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1 A; U3 o$ F. P+ a而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，9 ?' {' [; H) M

- h' V$ u+ ?/ M# ^: H但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。5 B% v) Q5 |0 q* h% G$ F

7 k2 d0 [! R6 _$ y" P排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，' y, z' R9 O# Z& o- k7 Z

. G7 f  Q/ U0 K+ m8 b但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，9 V2 n+ E2 ?  B: m( f) Y$ O  s
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这比买国债存银行合算。
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，, ~- w: N. M- g6 s

2 _7 z& p+ X' K5 }) X# r几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，. U( R& t* k/ ?' f0 k

+ r0 ]) n! W6 @: D就是回避了大的亏损，
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5 a& ?" S- ^7 z' G# Q" \大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，  O" i* v4 P: J6 q# P; Q
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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