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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 * I# U6 F4 t9 u5 ~
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3 W3 N; Q  U: n& r, T, A$ y1 l  u只跟踪一个联赛: Q5 P- o& E- m; x, D

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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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5 J& }+ j: M+ Z$ T1 d0 }" ~方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，: u6 c0 q3 J1 _+ s$ l. Q
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目. S! R8 A& M! O4 z( D

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8 G+ I) s: M( n# Q9 _亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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7 l' q& ?, Y/ o* }: ]/ f而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，5 V- o/ Q2 I; R& R, v6 F

  X( y/ Q+ d8 k4 h3 g但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。' K1 D* P1 d8 W4 h8 ]* ?6 W

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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。4 P8 i+ S. s: M# o: U

9 [6 i) c2 V! g1 ]排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，5 c1 K. W( d' ]6 H0 V8 i
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，2 |% C/ a3 L. w; Q4 z; M2 J; v
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这比买国债存银行合算。
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0 b# y0 l' Z1 \4 T0 |! q: J( H在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。/ V/ Z  @. E9 K4 ^
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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就是回避了大的亏损，, l& M, G- J) m2 n! a5 y! R/ O

: @; i' Q! B5 g8 ?1 R5 U: v大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，8 J0 }8 V' i- l! o! C) j8 o3 {+ S
9 E$ b# H" ~4 x
回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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