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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

* e* |7 R& Z) \" e7 J7 ~
賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類, a6 ~8 {! ?: `6 {7 ]6 Y
10A23456789
1 ^8 Y+ n8 P' S( S  r3 w-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159% R. k- z6 G; V% x! {
-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146, s2 U$ a2 b$ x" S% r
-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133& k( _& O& f% W3 L
-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120
* d( O- q9 j' P. E0 v-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108
1 C. n; n9 N+ y" R0 F( l-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096& f4 O* Q( ^! s9 R* i6 ?; ]
-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085
5 R" j1 Z3 a8 Y" k$ r-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074
6 p9 B! g" e! U( ]% b0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064
" o' y% W, b; [& p1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054
# K& s8 `8 }0 g2 Y% J2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045
8 `, v( m1 i% Q/ P3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.0367 ^' h5 b$ H% S) w
4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028- {" u' Q9 ~' V( r: f$ Q
5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020$ z) }) b: S  y1 ^
6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
1 R- z1 q8 o0 \% h) w! L! e7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007( F* ~* a( `7 I( ?  u8 t
8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001+ _5 _: K$ Y& k5 p# H  Q& Y
9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996
3 q2 O5 C  Z- \$ n9 Z6 {10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.9929 p4 A& B, K* @8 P6 O* Q
11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988- A1 R# E7 A3 \+ C  T' o) ^
12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985
& b) t1 V) Q# f13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982, O6 @% z- E9 S7 r' j" v4 W) F% w
14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980- J' T0 g! _8 S3 y) ^/ f9 ]) u
15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979
: _5 Q, Y0 [. }- p16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979
# }/ K; E6 P+ D$ o3 s' _1 v17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979
. J  b1 _; i: |2 w, B6 c) }18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.9792 _# x6 m8 _7 F  [  p5 x" O, y! Q
19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981
/ h0 Y. L) V# h' n20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.9834 f, U% {& Y) n5 w
21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986
3 |& i# P, b5 x22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989
- [+ a( H0 m6 ?" S2 X% D, Y% f23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
/ S* |9 o. A3 `" `6 `  [! T24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997
& i5 z  ~# ]0 d  K7 |' ^& ^25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002
% u& `* P* w* J; L

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。


  s5 P1 E8 i  P) s表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類4 h2 M$ t% q5 F! i* y
10A23456789' E, h, Y% t' g' ^# h
-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095
) p! {6 r% [& E/ o5 z* k5 j1 v-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082) D7 C, d& g0 N
-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069
  @( Y! [- I1 |" N# z-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056$ U. j- h1 i- R
-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.0446 W0 x0 g( G# ^6 Z
-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032
7 Q& [- B- W$ r( U9 T/ f-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021
. r4 D" m7 g, K) E% J/ _/ d-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010
. T' B; k9 E; K3 g/ u00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000  T0 E# J# T7 B9 u
1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010
! b6 U6 {/ b- R2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.0198 O( ]5 m7 ]7 r3 K
3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.0284 D/ X8 q! q3 E" v
4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036  ~4 K! H& B& m# v5 O# z
5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044
& [; z* q/ X2 y2 N) w6 [6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051+ a) r' g" X  x. Y4 f( G4 T) l, `
7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.0572 k) s* x% Z0 o( P5 P- [2 t1 d5 I8 T
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063" r9 E6 x" x, ^, o( }/ j
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068
. i4 u1 W: U; C) z4 ?10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
1 P* S( d; x4 ~/ m; [6 A$ t11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.0761 v, g5 G6 ]8 C, @% C* P# {3 q5 F& M
12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.0798 ]3 u* Y$ a' j: G3 V6 |
13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082
& v% l7 @  I( j. G* d7 a. C14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084- Q1 @% J' I7 D; {! ^
15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.0854 j' C% k& o( d5 D
16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085
0 D; K- w( ]- j/ I17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085
7 e2 g# y! ]: \18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.0855 }. q" J8 F3 ^) d5 k2 ~( `
19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083# n, S1 |; Q( [8 M3 q$ A
20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081
: d* s8 W$ I/ T, }21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078
& w1 O1 b5 I: m, O  Z+ `( e22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075
' W. Y' y9 Q0 n6 U4 Q* ?- e0 h23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071
. b! s4 s8 S  o; q* [24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067
1 V  {, M* R6 w# L' Y25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062
1 y) K: [0 _  S: R5 a+ N. ]

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。

# O, O& I. I8 {5 r2 h
押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類0 k$ o& m. _  S. @$ b
10A23456789% ?% R+ U7 m' ]+ k+ k5 x
-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122  d) z! j2 G: A+ v/ D7 a
-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137
: p! ~. h1 M& Y: ^& K0 W6 L4 ]) f-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152
; P- O# U& A  z- k" Z-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.1664 Q5 b* o/ T) K
-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180/ K6 t* ?* B, Z# D7 W6 y
-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193
0 b$ w* J! W8 y-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.2051 x# X% e9 I/ x, k/ V! ~9 E
-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217
! W. ?1 d5 V8 S" q4 o& Z0 D) K8 w0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228
& u4 r3 b* d$ \* m9 x) ]- _& \1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239
" F1 c) V" u; J% A5 @$ N: C/ F2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249
: C# K( ~4 V- ?1 Z0 a( e3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258
+ J9 k1 }, |2 f* U4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266! Y' d7 |$ }3 a' B1 ]  ^, r3 d
5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274
+ y3 Z1 j1 y& c0 h6 o& i6 }6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281
: [/ z  R" U6 S- z) r7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287
; |( e, z: b- t( r# S8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293
* V* M  k7 R# E( ?3 S9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298
" x/ u/ U3 G' L8 B; G! d10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302! ~4 i- h3 b5 u" U
11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.3062 M3 V. l4 c' z
12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.3080 |/ c* H; P' j' a
13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310) E6 N$ A2 U) c' Y
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311
4 W8 c4 e+ k) j' D% e15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311
, j! F+ Q3 a: x/ b- t$ z2 ^" i16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311# p  P" d( p% V0 o$ G' c
17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310
- [- _7 w: }$ _  {: g+ j9 h+ ]: w18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308
& r; m: j0 ]. H: ~- q; j9 l) x19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305# I% e6 A) F( C  @5 y
20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301% m) p% }0 W. x% ^3 b, [' V* m/ k
21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297
' e$ s) ^& E; z# W# F: B, b22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292, F& k% h9 x+ a" q
23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286+ Y& b0 q) D7 i1 M2 {/ g4 |
24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279# b) i7 I/ j, m# I% C
25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272! T# E; w! _0 j. W: E- H. D

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
avatar
7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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