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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>


( \" o4 y2 R  @7 y賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
/ b5 k) c2 S% D/ T. e  `( c10A23456789# O( W# f1 O% q$ h7 C5 l: G: H
-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159
/ t4 x- Q! h" c-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.1467 M2 @2 ^( E4 v) H' L
-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133
% k/ A- }4 z; I. V2 |# C-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120/ l$ E) b5 j9 U
-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108
; ~# T2 ~: o0 p( w( {-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096
- R4 q& N/ b+ G( n% v7 `-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085
. I) N' R5 J- X! L-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074; W2 z3 @! W- E! J. c2 D( ?. T; |
0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064
! O. I' C/ e1 w1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.0540 `0 s% i4 G1 t
2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.0453 y  k  \# N7 g& g! p
3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.036
8 W/ j, P) L1 O# h4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028& a7 i5 [/ X& L' i4 w
5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020: }* N% V) m( G& B
6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013: y, N+ Y1 w: z1 L9 m- Y
7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007
' e1 C) V9 ?2 Z7 _/ W( i8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.0010 c; |, S$ i( F1 f; \# z
9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996
+ p1 O# A$ p- ~( U10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992
- t: n! b8 i2 Z1 G/ S1 w; l% K11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988( f* S3 v( F) v6 P' o
12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985
4 n0 `6 S* P' B+ I2 I13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982, D. J- g+ |9 t2 B4 i
14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.9809 z3 @1 K# T2 O( h( I+ \- |! {6 y. m
15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979
6 O; d1 G* X9 Y# j5 l8 f  Z4 B16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979* D6 w) }) J7 C+ `
17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979
4 E& P& b9 `/ g2 [" k" x0 B18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979
# J( M+ V* b4 g7 H# q. p19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981' s; Y( F& t1 S) e9 v6 I
20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983% J/ ?% ~8 U- O0 w/ X
21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986. Z) ~! P9 Z# ?% O: l! y  F/ r; I
22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989/ ^6 a# w0 \- k7 x1 o
23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
1 E+ H& `$ p8 ]24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997
/ z9 h0 y- v8 S9 G- b8 K; @25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002
! p7 U3 Y5 W8 e1 I. a; e

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。


$ @& ?9 f2 ~( H& G8 ~7 n/ v. P( k表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
: n3 e# J% k- |& J4 y' A6 Y10A23456789
; u( p8 S; @" d-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.0952 y) t& W5 r+ N. Q5 R2 M. ~
-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.0824 d6 Z& \2 W' a1 Q/ k6 D$ ~
-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.0696 x: R& _" S" j5 O6 w2 a
-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.0560 Y9 o6 Y4 c% m9 L* C. P1 a
-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044
# K2 B" i0 _; f" Z* j-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032; `2 l* a/ t4 Z* l- v! D
-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021
- a# F1 w: b+ b-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010: M, k' G6 m- ~3 }) B3 e$ Z3 [
00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
6 Q0 z# o' N' C' w  f1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010
/ n: ~9 a+ a6 X" V6 ]2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.0191 U: A/ v# I  x6 i# C1 U
3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
; I7 P  X/ r. o- \' F, {0 @) A4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036
7 x2 n5 @: m4 y! q1 [5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044+ t/ x6 a- f% p8 E% q$ m
6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.0510 K4 m/ `6 \7 B# [! J
7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057
7 `0 X8 B" X  C8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063
; ?9 e) e" r4 E, M& f: ]9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068
6 c5 C% s' |7 ~1 t# ^10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072. Q' ?3 i( c9 d% l% ~
11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076
" y; n9 s9 k( P" V  u12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079+ H9 G$ P- s8 A6 C- F4 u5 q" `
13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082. W9 N1 e$ {1 w8 q( g5 v
14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084) S, O& v0 u; S5 ]
15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085
3 w2 w8 v3 _, c. T& [8 B+ e16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.0857 i; q* d" K) ]9 S! Z8 g1 `" U
17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085, U8 ]( R5 ~! h$ B4 F: |
18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085. C, d$ G! Y. k9 ?3 T2 D
19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083
0 D8 A) w" ?9 q1 y" v# _; `; |20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081( h: n3 l  W3 H4 I
21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078
' T3 G3 D# n, t) V4 o22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075) M9 e$ s) u' p, Z. e  s5 j
23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071
7 K$ }8 b. T# |, s0 m5 `. f9 e' ~0 I24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.0672 ]! V7 f$ e3 f
25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062
6 R4 R& l- [6 b1 U  @( P* l2 U

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。


4 q8 R* S9 q9 K0 c0 [% R押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
: H( ?- Q+ G7 j10A234567895 o$ z/ I1 u$ D
-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122
( y) z& G2 t" q- y: J- |" C3 n-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137
, v# k5 Y1 i# l# \-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152* H! u- u, j2 E9 c  y& o1 F: E. I
-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166/ w" e; V! r- r/ T! i2 y- `$ t
-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180  Y( L9 k% T: |, F+ x
-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193
& o. j- M5 b% v4 K-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.2051 Z$ G9 `; X$ \4 X5 O+ e; N
-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217: ?9 s+ B& \# J8 X& ?
0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228
& c4 S& G& N& }, U1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.2397 [! D# k0 Z: [3 p# f; Y
2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249  M: L8 U! }2 M! d) g
3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258$ p3 g8 W& E! V, K
4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266
! t2 |3 z6 G% Q& x. j2 w0 @5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274/ J( f- L# a2 u1 C/ P6 K
6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.2817 C) I/ ?2 j" s
7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287
7 e' i) J" z  `; q7 l8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293
' @8 d$ V6 e$ {* t9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298$ O9 m8 l! U# ]" O/ \" g4 P
10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.3028 V9 b5 S1 r3 L6 @9 T1 m5 w
11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.3069 M! G$ ~( D8 X; @' \; _6 }
12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308! k) R1 y$ B! R1 j$ u' f
13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310
& z/ a* Z: K: y1 o3 M7 x  o14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311: B+ q1 q3 ]( q0 ^2 K4 l  X
15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311
$ ]6 V* b6 q# Z9 J% b: G16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311
% d! I6 h: X2 C: e, R) S+ s5 \17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310& ?) B; B/ Y% a( W/ P6 H- X* x7 k
18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308
# J* Z$ [" {, e0 ^! _7 [19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305
4 _5 p* Y9 s. _5 i+ G20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301
' H$ }2 I6 ~0 g7 n' q21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297- u7 m- _8 O8 X" l; I
22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.2929 \# H+ k" m; F1 M1 U5 C
23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286$ q2 s$ d$ b% s2 i. }. P
24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279& j! ?7 J, T' W6 W8 C
25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.2720 W+ R( P/ I) [0 q; A

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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