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[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
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此帖转贴,作者wloo (凉咖啡)+ r7 z# U, Y2 }' d/ m& _
Dubo不是好东西,盲目的赌真的会让你倾家荡产。但是如果你真能掌握其中某些实
/ t% E8 r K7 H& H9 K0 ]: U质,结果也许真的会大不一样。
' c# y6 |# s6 h* }. O一个玩21点的,在掌握了提高3%的赢牌机率技术后,他一个晚上就能赢走90万多1 X# N( ]5 {9 ^" U- C) m) H
美元
* u$ E8 b2 P; R5 L" d1 M$ C9 E5 \' h他凭自己的技术,要养家糊口是不成问题的。要说华尔街那些人能在某种程度上掌9 C- f" n/ `) Z0 d, Q
控国家经济,也是事实。他们所做的某些工作跟赌有紧密联系的。所以说,小赌可5 Q* z& q" |" U/ V5 x H. W* ~
以养家糊口,大赌可以救国救民,也不能算是痴人梦话。
# X: l+ {6 a1 c& ZDubo有多种,这里只说赌彩,就是玩彩票。 有人说,彩票是愚者的Dubo,智者的游
4 Z. |. r8 {8 _& x戏,我赞承这种说法。
+ e4 { P& Q: ?0 A) t2 e4 L现在还没听说过什么人能用玩彩来养家糊口、救国救民,如果真能玩到这种境界,
' c* a# p6 w& T2 T4 ~5 M0 P8 R也算世界状元了!但如果你非赌不可,就必须首先具备成熟的心理素质。8 j$ |* q( t" k2 B
首先应该面对的是关于彩票公证性的挑战。8 _# Q* O1 o& D. q/ e* G0 J+ p* j/ _8 y
玩彩前,每个人都要先问一个问题:彩票公司公正吗?出号真的是随机的吗?; e) k a: @. D/ D2 @, L
疑问1:现在世界上主要国家(包括加拿大,不包括天朝)的彩票公司都在用一种 p f* p* ]8 C$ n
G-tech技术保护,不敢对G-tech多说什么,只是在下面列出很多彩票玩家经常提出
" ?# V8 V# o p* w的一些与G-teck 有关的问题:
( E8 E* @9 T& K8 z* Why one organization called “G-TECH” behind the world lotteries?7 q8 N9 i* V, D
Is it because those world governments cannot afford to buy the3 W8 [+ ]( J" \* Q
equipment outright unless G-TECH supplies it to them?
# s% X$ ?7 n# H! E* a* Why G-TECH collect percentage of the profit from the local operators?
1 M0 ~, s7 m' Y1 U' U! y* What more is in to lotteries apart from Machines and Balls?% ^4 |% p& S/ Y& [- G9 c$ A0 A" C
Could it be software involved?
7 W* ^2 C1 O, t- e, o* Why world data such as UK, France, Germany, Spain and even USA have the
3 c0 ~7 o0 q4 N+ z7 isame resemblance but never and ever match entirely?
/ Q2 G; U Y$ i& T8 E$ I* Why satellite terminals are involved if the draws are taking place locally, u- Z# N. t$ `* a) K7 w$ f' p6 c
is it because to transfer data back to G-TECH for calculations?5 @6 J& }3 N3 t( y& E' D
* Why there is a minimum of half hour interval from the shut down of terminals
6 G) }. Q8 Q4 Zto the time draw takes place, what the organizers do during this time?
1 N# a8 s9 n* Q# C0 f* How can the local organization running the lottery like Camelot in UK can take! P: W3 W6 J4 H; P+ Z
their share of sales (%50 I believe) before the draw takes place especially
& a' O, Q' C! Bwhere there is a minimum prize of £10 guaranteed? ? How do they know how |$ b9 R: V9 D# c& X! c
many $10 winners there are to calculate their sums when there is a possibility* z: m6 ?4 n# B0 O* r3 b
of the number of £10 winners exceed from the total sales?
# X _! l+ |3 y0 I* v** 注:据说G-tect理论需要30分钟去完成某些“优化”计算
+ B3 K5 d+ I! ~6 H' t. W8 V** 注:理论上讲,过去的中奖号码最多在4500期后就会出现首次重复。 z) E" P0 _" J
疑问2:曾有人在某彩票玩家网站上贴出下面文字,后来经有心人查证,其作者IP
$ L8 n: S, t# {* s( O似乎是控制加拿大649、Super7的彩票公司,就是说是彩票公司内部的人发出的...
0 `5 A$ @* Q& G4 ^Winning numbers how there are selected9 C, u( T0 [* ?; u# S
This is the way we select the winning numbers:
5 ]8 K' d9 b. d* N3 k* ~4 y( USelect "XXX' Numbers_set from Played_numbers
d4 {* m, ^5 S, Awhere Province_of_played='XXX' and city_of_played='XXX" and time_of_played='XXX'
, V7 b- p! R+ K( M) T0 @and Method_of_Played='XXXX'
) @; }! [/ Z: P i6 ~9 I9 [On each ticket we record the place, the time and the way the numbers have been selected.6 h9 ~- w! a& d- V8 \( w- a2 Q
We run this query against all played sets.& M v' t: W/ Y. d6 ]9 _
We then feed the drawing machine with the results, the outcome will always be what we want.
, _ b5 ` f5 P% \For example if we want to have a single winner from Ontario, who played quick pick we run
9 M3 O' P0 I' M: X% e, ` B% uthe following query:
$ u# q0 K" [1 X" [2 V! r) }, o8 R% QSelect unique numbers_set from played_numbers
% ^9 z: W; j8 Xwhere province_of_played='Ontario' and method_of_played='quick pick';
" ^! W4 L7 F; L% c, C% u* rIt just takes less than 5 minutes to get the results.
! y/ @6 c0 ]; P" @We prefer players wo play quick pick because our machine predict the numbers., c9 u: N/ Z( \+ r2 j
If we do not want a winner we run the following query:
3 V7 P+ f6 O& J# ZSelect unique numbers_set from all_numbers_set where numbers_set not in played_numbers;
" R0 a- ?) X: q# B. v上述英文是原文,没经过任何改动。
% Y" N( T0 s; V* q: ^8 \虽然此帖没明说是用在何种彩票上,但后来因为其作者IP的曝光(彩票公司内部人),8 Q6 r% t+ v9 F' }. w: ]# F
很让人怀疑加拿大649、Super7的公正性。如果这是真的,很恐怖。8 _+ U3 O# L& Q( C: W; B
疑问3:为什么现在加拿大彩票公司不实况转播摇奖过程,为什么加拿大彩票公司8 ?7 a4 s, Q% o) c8 i+ H a) H6 ~
在停止售票1个半小时后才开始摇奖,而且每次摇奖只有几个人参与(一两个摇奖
% G7 w8 k3 M) u1 {3 i, m人员加三两个摄录的技术人员)?) Y$ p$ v0 ~4 v5 C; [
为什么摇奖过程没有法律公证人员参与、证实?为什么所有玩家购买号不能在摇奖$ O0 O2 N; k/ X/ F
前刻在一张非重写的光盘上(体现公正性方法之一)?等等,很多问题。# A8 j1 R3 Y9 B9 a. l* w: x
疑问4:为什么大多数情况下,“中奖者”信息不公开?(有人指出有很多未曝光的重# d' h: t, F9 @5 k, @' W+ Y
复中彩者). C7 s: X6 X3 O6 y' o$ ^
为什么几年前安省649出号与同期加拿大649出号极其相像,远远超过其理论上的
/ b. |% q1 h; d$ j可能性?# i- r# N) \; B. S1 D% e+ _) w
疑问5:为什么彩票公司很多公开年薪超过10万的工作人员,几乎所有人公开的Taxable
{' ?) Z: r4 W8 HBenefits只有不到200元?不用上税的Benefits有多少?
6 _4 Y4 x5 X7 k8 l# {下面附件里包括部分2003年OLGC年薪超过10万的Name、Position、Salary、
3 [) u1 V9 }, B$ x' K% n, _7 eTaxable Benefits。其实还有很多的疑问,但以上的疑问足以使一个成熟的人望而
+ h% u$ i9 }; z( v+ d止步。我个人的感觉,相比之下真正公正的彩票是天朝的彩票。如果你有成熟的心; z7 @6 e% V5 Q* b3 p
理素质包容以上疑问,并且还坚持非赌不可,那么你还需要了解一些有关彩票的最
9 y; {$ y9 s! B' n1 D& }+ i+ s基本的知识。) w+ G* E+ x/ p8 P2 {
应该承认,通过适当的分析,是可以大幅度提高中奖机率的。虽然那个玩21点的,6 A% H& |5 b( I; j% c
在掌握了提高3%的赢牌机率技术后,一个晚上就能赢走90万多美元,但是对彩票: f1 C$ I/ g6 t! H& k6 ?5 I, i7 I
而言,却完全不是这样。其实对彩票研究而言,提高3%的中奖机率并不困难。比
. i% A, S) X% c1 {如几周前,某人给出20个数字,说明是其后10次加拿大649最佳候选号。结果中5
* Q5 i z) q% p: F1 I个(或以上)中奖号至少3次以上。
! j3 i4 V! H8 m6 i理论上,49选20中5的几率是3.2153%,此人的结果提高30%以上的中奖机率。可4 Y! e! g5 E( w# p* A3 P
结果是他自己最多中了10块钱。原因很简单,彩票可能性的数据量太大,除了专业
! O( b: e# X8 O1 E玩彩的,没有人会每期投入几十万。
' Q9 j8 Q" I E; G0 S( Y20选6有38760种可能,20选5加另外29选1有449616种可能,每期花$976752,! m7 E1 n9 Y8 J, G1 t
似乎专业玩彩的也不敢这样投。结论是即使你提高了30%的中奖机率,尤其是没有* g3 h, C3 X. `% n" K
人敢100%保证它的号能每次都达到30%的中5个机率,如果每次买全可能号码,最4 ]: S9 U; \! [- @ d4 [; Y
后你还有70%的机率是赔。. n) S4 W" D8 l
即使用旋转矩阵选号,20中5保3也要20个以上,仍然赔。如果不自己选号,去quick
" v; k6 e; S8 Upick,就是机选,那你几乎是没有什么机会的,即使是10块钱,你也会很难得到。7 N$ O {" R3 l+ S
且不说上面提到的G-tech保护,首先,理论上的中奖机率就少得很。理论上的机率
$ u- K& g0 g1 m9 f$ Q) [( y; T2 E6 X$ g也不保证100%中奖机率。
! s( E0 u6 D. L! a- }举个具体的649的例子,中3的机率大概是1.765%(或1/57),但你买57张彩票,
( x* k, O: E8 m9 O; y% e' L) W* l" `却不能100%的保证中3。如要100%的保证中3,现在的世界纪录是163,就是最少
, W8 H2 m$ }# a2 I* e买163张彩票(当然按特定组合了),才能100%的保证你中3个。如果你老能设计
' `, Q* F$ z2 o. v5 a. I- ^: u$ _一种组合,用低于163的数额就能保证中3,可以去参加Lottery Wheeling- h8 d8 W8 M- T$ [7 M) f
Challenge,也弄个青史留名。当然,这特殊的163张彩号组合,肯定不会受G-tech
5 ?7 w; C: k. L3 G影响。问题是用163张彩票,$326,去赌$10奖金是否值得。
- r. Z% L7 p2 u) J7 ]& f3 q" D( z- `如果在这时你老还是非赌不可,那么该如何赌呢?不同的人有不同的技术,如果你
/ j# I% f% c, K6 w没有白胡子老头托梦告诉你中奖号码,只能多在历史数据里下功夫了。
) L2 w( D) x! A% i/ O说到彩票研究,会有很多人说是痴心妄想。
2 O% o% ^4 k/ w# E明白人会用概率理论来说明彩票是不可预测;
$ c' @5 s6 P0 A" t! R* K不明白人会说,如果你能预测,就先来中几千万;0 W" K6 B0 b; G m5 O
不明不白的人会说,中大奖的人都活不长,等等。
- R; g, z9 E2 E1 H6 K6 B3 `且不管这些不同人的心态,仅对彩票本身而论,要研究彩票,只能从历史数据着手,
" ]) I8 G+ t) C) y2 H前提是你要承认历史数据与下期中奖号码有某些联系。
; r6 W9 P3 M) `& |4 Q& l1 T比如说第2527期彩票中奖号码是20 21 22 29 39 41,那么理论上第2528期的中奖8 k+ j1 R! M' o' J& k
号码于上期没有任何重复数字的几率是43.6%,有一个重复数字的几率是41.3%。3 x' ?7 l7 r5 y
对所有前2527期结果统计表明,每期与前一期没有重复数字的次数是1086,重复* H$ L2 l# ?# {$ U/ j( U* T9 ~: B
1的次数是:1047。另一方面,每期与20 21 22 29 39 41比较,没有重复数字的次
+ x/ P& z {- U& v8 L数是1102,重复1的次数是:1040。这些统计结果显示基本与理论结果一致。; s# J6 ?! D8 I1 z% H7 F; P
明白人知道这里我想说明什么。 x% X! ^3 y" v) c! @
在第2528期中,不同的组合,其出现的机率是不一致的。比如,与2527期重复2或! ^5 f$ B+ _% z* c4 \2 d
大于2的组合,其出现机率要小于15.1%。承认历史数据与下期中奖号码有一定联系
4 n$ @, N+ {' r$ ] |2 q& s9 s) }# R后,你可以设计不同的参数去分析,其中某些是非常有效的。大家分析同一个对象,0 X$ b# t0 L, [& S% A
但具体方法不同,其结论有天地之差。比如国内很多“专家”出书,分析奇偶,目前为! i# Y) n' v) j7 _1 u) p
止,没看到任何实用的分析方法。简单的通过近期奇数个数、偶数个数来判断下期9 G& K6 ?2 k* _+ M' i D. v$ N, |
奇偶分配,简直就是天方夜谭、痴人说梦。对具体的分析对象、分析方法的讨论,! |9 m3 i+ h2 C0 F$ C
有时间时再听俺下文分解俺自己的心得。也请各位高人帮助填补下面内容。1 J1 F! w r) H" }5 H9 j4 K
小赌可以养家糊口,大赌可以救国救民。 |
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