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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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, a* \9 l: g$ C$ S- u7 j3 }$ y3 w& o- j! d R
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:% P, `" M5 R0 U2 g: M: }
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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; w$ E0 j k* a! n/ l/ I以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?, g+ O/ s# b$ v. s
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盈利可能性! f' g1 F _" E
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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, l- W. g. N- J5 @+ |5 o增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。: H$ ~1 [) S3 l2 _
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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- y/ a* S. I; d) Y. Ja) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 2 w3 Y/ w6 Y) o/ a0 `- {
0 x0 f4 S/ ]! J& S正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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$ I5 \" R9 z! r3 [40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
4 h2 w9 a" @5 E2 J( \: j* d# s. `3 Z60%的机会你会一无所有
$ F5 u' O" Y; ]7 J( n' J1 ?预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
b8 H4 Q# N& @5 g! O$ X由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。- F2 ?) w2 t* m
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。, y2 ]# A& T( ~
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基于增值的投注
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" r9 N. Z( d9 D* G) j* s凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。; U: E5 b) A4 W" f7 h, n
+ K9 ~. g. [0 v- V N公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金3 Z. y- O: e' [) S: E- E
P=获胜机会
( W; O# M4 y% K6 Z4 mO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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8 s: v7 d- y+ Y, P2 p0 \好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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$ a& {# v- G0 Y: n6 j) e1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5). O/ J0 z' m* H) t
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A=02 V3 ]& |4 ` k' k; E! G0 S$ r
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢* M; E9 M0 M6 h) X0 \
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)5 r# K( N9 L( M* {! X( A' p
, x" X9 w2 W, D2 b3 l! J, YA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2); p1 ~$ o6 _9 E# U! [6 O7 V
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A=0.1/ _" K I1 l# g' ]/ ?( {! v7 R
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去: n% y. R C2 N) ]; B% d) u
4 N% x! h5 Q. w- o+ R2 Y0 }3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)3 B, f, _# p: v8 m4 b( d# l
1 c9 _+ k/ |, q; }& x* Y" PA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2
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- Q y s" C. {, o; h8 z结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
3 |6 x' F7 u# g) _$ P H7 a
- O5 z. l+ c8 j第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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