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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率2 J |- [' m- {
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
5 P, O% |3 l, P: ?
/ C' o7 P+ M5 H3 D很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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. `+ d* N% V4 q/ G( _以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?% N! g. h( f- I6 ]/ _
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% H5 q, G E- R! L$ h盈利可能性: Z& W0 O4 G; Q% P* {% ?! s3 z1 F
3 [- J3 z+ p. I& V
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。2 @% u$ q% s* q* t2 b
, I- v* W2 r' c) A增值' C' Q$ W1 |, U `$ y
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
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" f* e. g8 @' b, m正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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+ a, d" {3 p2 K40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
7 r% P+ c$ F( v s& U% R60%的机会你会一无所有) A# ?2 f# r s7 m: W" G5 t3 _
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
8 c2 G! R# r+ O9 x+ f9 ?由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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( f2 T: l) X& K1 U增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。 u" e) U/ X. A2 _% O# F- j' t' a
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基于增值的投注# }( y' I1 d4 ?' B
/ W! w% N: R3 I% c$ d0 Q0 L Z0 z" k凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。8 u' r# q) t; F* C5 b2 {' G
" z* u) p: @% T6 M& G2 N: i公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金2 k4 ?* a$ ^: e1 F2 y$ ], ]
P=获胜机会' \+ I" q, I& {; t5 J6 R" H' T0 S
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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- O5 d0 y! k0 A* D4 ^首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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' M8 V% F* L5 V- s! T, {" ^1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)' m7 A) e* Q4 e# M+ P* o
$ o! I7 f/ n8 X3 M9 R, f5 dA=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)5 A7 ^0 p4 E0 i6 {, x
3 t! `& }3 C6 [$ ~/ AA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2); I: B* N: O) l4 M" h' \) A
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A=0.14 L! q5 m9 ~9 T. o$ t8 i
# S7 P, e3 w$ b结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
5 v2 O5 h. x Q" S- z4 ^) N, |7 q9 H7 F6 i( i1 ^
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)/ w7 ^% ]: d/ `' l! d
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2
3 Z& p. z3 `1 z0 C
# U" l; N" _% ~# E5 E/ ^' R/ g结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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