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[lastpost] => 2802941 Galaxy研究主管：比特币或将进一步下探至7万美元附近，甚至测试5.8万美元（转） 1770079328 sunnyclare001
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币兑美元暴跌：现在抄底还是继续等待更低的价格？（转）
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两年后，当比特币价格跌至 40 万美元，以太坊价格跌至 2.5 万美元时，你打算如何感谢特朗普先生造成比特币价格的这次历史性暴跌？! g, z4 K/ h2 v8 i' V8 K
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; ^4 E K3 {4 \8 k/ }我们确实需要印更多美元。根据 99Bitcoins 和 Cowen 的分析师预测，美元价格下跌的时间点如下：
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比特币价格走势：为什么全世界都在恐慌抛售？
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* ^; k- b) y I& N市值: Q6 ]! @7 @5 O2 a$ n
+ ~7 U3 p; m4 I% k0 ]( U8 O24小时 7天 30天 1年 所有时间
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" C0 u! x5 u/ v0 _结果是，加密货币领域充斥着太多骗局、山寨币骗局和无用项目；我们需要一个新的架构来构建未来。% z$ n; H+ {1 B b7 D
( ^, R2 C* b3 ]! j, x在他的框架下，市场目前的表现已经像一个熊市周期，在没有散户狂热的情况下触顶，这可能会延长周期，并使反弹在即将结束之前显得很有说服力。5万至6万美元。' U$ s, V. h) p$ y* [3 N
7 n% s0 B7 \, s- a- a- }' i（来源：Facebook）' R$ A( ^' X0 [# T2 F" ]: S0 F
7 ^# T$ y+ u1 ?对于任何问“我们什么时候买入比特币？”的人，这里有一个明确的结论：你要寻找的是投降区域和确认水平，而不是感觉。
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> Benjamin Cowen（Into The Cryptoverse）：“最有可能的结果是比特币……至少会跌到 200 周移动平均线。我认为低点很可能在 10 月份出现……那时我会买入。”6 e: g4 K" ]8 V- z5 u4 E
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科恩还提到，到了春夏之交，他愿意重新审视这个论点。7 a/ U) ?4 k8 @2 z+ ~7 i+ q
4 @( @4 M( N7 R/ T' f买入区域地图：挥杆前需要注意的事项
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- }2 U* Y& F3 ^考恩的“买入窗口”逻辑基本上分为两类：
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战术性逢低买入（风险较高）：价格扫过之前的低点后，出现反弹并触及阻力位（通常是 200 日均线区域），这可能形成宏观上的更低高点，并带来另一个卖出机会。结构性买入（风险较低）：夏末至第四季度的情况，恐慌情绪高涨，波动性很大，价格正在测试长期成本基础水平。2 A2 M+ t; V9 B+ l5 E- V9 @% h W8 E6 I
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就我个人而言，如果我要买入，我希望买入的感觉是不舒服的，而不是像在商场看到“促销”横幅那样。这通常意味着在杠杆和信心都被消耗殆尽的情况下，试探性地在深层成本价位区间进行交易。4 e O: x) a" i# N3 y: Z
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（来源：CoinGlass）/ n' ^8 D) ^% _7 f! |2 p3 ~; D
# o0 o6 Y0 J' I% TGlassnode 将这种结构描述为“脆弱的”，其上涨行情容易受到抛售和供应过剩的影响，而不是一种清晰的趋势体系。, a: h% E! B0 N* I
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为了追踪这一点，许多交易员通过 FRED 的美元和利率系列来观察贸易加权美元指数和政策预期。
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+ c# A H' d; x1 H' \一个简单的决策框架：逢低买入。市场此刻正在告诉你什么6 s6 P* p- ?. Z9 n9 r! o) c' z0 ?
, m2 M: f4 }0 x% u如果你想要一种基于规则的方法，而不是沉迷于无意义的滚动浏览：$ A1 |$ f0 |3 e! A0 X
) D. e; F" f; w$ \* ^激进的进入策略：只有当抛售势头疲软时，才在主要成本基础支撑区域附近（想想“真实均值”区域）扩大规模。保守派的入场思路：等待持久的转变，例如周线强势重新夺回主要移动平均线水平（考恩使用 50 周逻辑作为市场机制过滤器）。无效化以示尊重：如果比特币在每周收盘价上重新站稳关键趋势水平并守住，那么“中期熊市”的论点就会减弱；现在可能是最佳买入时机。
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当然，最稳妥的做法是逢低买入，而不是试图抄底。少量买入，如果年底前股价创下历史新高，你就不会亏损。% x. q) g& b ^+ P& W$ n7 Z
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唉，这市场真是让人捉摸不透，感觉抄底和等待都挺纠结的 |
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