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[lastpost] => 2795273 基于 Polymarket 的交易 Bot 项目被黑客攻击 1767835026 比推快讯
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Wintermute：2026 年市场能否复苏取决于三大因素，市场急需注入狂热动能
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比推消息，加密市场做市商 Wintermute 在其数字资产场外交易市场回顾中分析：2025 年比特币的传统四年周期表现疲软，山寨币周期几乎消失，这不是短暂调整，而是结构性变化。因此 2026 年加密市场想要真正强势反弹，高度依赖以下三个关键结果，需要其中至少一个发生：
ETF 和加密财库（DAT）公司将投资范围扩大到比特币和以太坊之外。目前美国现货 BTC/ETH ETF 将流动性高度集中在少数大市值代币上，导致市场宽度变窄、表现严重分化。只有当更多币种被机构通过 ETF 或企业金库纳入，才有可能恢复更广泛的市场参与和流动性。
BTC、ETH 与 BNB、SOL 等主要资产再次出现强劲表现，并产生广泛财富效应。2025 年传统BTC 上涨随后资金流向山寨的循环基本断裂，山寨币平均上涨周期仅约 20 天（前一年约 60 天），大部分代币受解锁抛压影响持续走低。唯有头部资产再次大涨，资金才可能重新向下溢出，激活山寨行情。
散户注意力重回加密市场。目前散户还在积极参与市场，但资金主要在定投标普 500、AI、机器人、量子计算等高增长主题。2022-2023 年的惨痛记忆（暴跌、破产、强平）叠加 2025 年加密表现落后于传统股市，让很多人对加密的暴富吸引力大幅下降。只有散户大规模回归，市场才会重新获得狂热动能。
风险提示： 本新闻涉及的内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。依据发布的信息以及所表达的意见行事所造成的一切后果由行事者自负。文章链接 |
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