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[虚拟币交流]
Hashflow/比特币 (HFTBTC) 市场概览 - 2025-11-14（转）
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• 价格在狭窄的范围内波动，在 4.0e-07 美元和 4.2e-07 美元之间盘整。( R5 S1 q+ V7 ?+ H7 y6 _4 X- Q( b
• 深夜交易量大幅飙升，而价格在临近收盘时略有下降。* M. g- [8 V& O) L0 P4 Y+ C% j
• MACD 和 RSI 显示动能疲弱，没有明显的超买或超卖信号。. p% V& D! ^: Z: s- m3 k1 d9 j1 e
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HFTBTC 开盘于4.2e-07 美元美国东部时间 11:59，最高温度达到4.2e-07 美元随后跌至最低点4.0e-07 美元并于4.0e-07 美元截至美国东部时间中午 12:00，24 小时交易量总计为334,527.3 单位名义营业额约为133.81 美元该货币对波动性较低，方向性偏向有限，价格走势在关键支撑位附近形成看跌盘整形态。# |# V3 h/ x$ `1 ]- e
* h$ P- Y( y, [( [结构与地层
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C: N: J- i1 Y6 ]# |0 @% x整个交易时段，价格一直维持在 4.0e-07 美元至 4.2e-07 美元的窄幅区间内，没有出现明显的突破。看跌盘整形态已经形成，尤其在深夜至凌晨时段更为明显。美国东部时间 19:45 左右出现了一个小型看跌吞没形态，这可能预示着短期看跌趋势。% G% d6 j1 d0 a$ n& k' o
移动平均线
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15分钟图上的20周期和50周期移动平均线接近重合，50周期均线略高于20周期均线，表明市场整体偏向中性或略微看跌。日线图上，50周期和200周期移动平均线正在收敛，预示着可能出现更大幅度的盘整阶段。
% X4 f5 o1 N# hMACD 和 RSI/ E- m4 r5 n* }5 u' J
! b' @* n. v' x7 l HMACD指标保持平稳，未出现明显背离，而柱状图在美东时间19:45后出现小幅下跌，预示着上涨动能可能逆转。RSI指标在40-50区间附近徘徊，显示动能疲软，但尚未达到超卖或超买水平。; L/ F ?0 H W" x# S: t6 x
布林带
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布林带反映出过去12小时波动性有所收缩，价格大部分时间都在中轨附近波动。美东时间19:45小幅跌破下轨可能预示着短期回调。+ c4 { C# l9 O5 L o: F% ?7 s2 @
销量和营业额+ n2 F" i5 @( P8 D* }6 W3 `1 H
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美国东部时间19:45和次日凌晨04:45，成交量均出现大幅飙升，价格也随之走低，表明关键支撑位抛售压力增大。名义成交量也呈现相同趋势，暗示机构投资者介入或出现大规模清算活动。3 K! g9 J' k" C- M; y
斐波那契回撤
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将斐波那契回撤应用于最近15分钟内从4.2e-07美元到4.0e-07美元的波动，显示潜在的38.2%回撤位在4.1e-07美元，61.8%回撤位在4.0e-07美元。价格似乎在61.8%回撤位附近盘整，这可能构成短期阻力或支撑，具体取决于下一步走势。
; x1 [1 D* {( P0 C回测假设. W7 ?& P1 e, Z: ~
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鉴于美东时间19:45左右出现了看跌吞没形态，一个潜在的回测策略是在下一根K线开盘时（美东时间19:45-19:55）建立空头头寸，并在收盘时平仓。止损位可设置在入场价上方1%，止盈位可设置在入场价下方1.5%。该形态符合看跌吞没形态的标准——对先前上涨行情的明确否定——使其成为一个可行的入场信号。从2022年1月1日至2025年11月13日的回测有助于确定该形态在高频比特币交易中的胜率和风险回报比。7 @/ N/ @7 U& b/ r7 }* ?
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