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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。" C7 O( z0 e) D y' I1 {- \4 m
: w1 p s! L: M8 Z+ d) a' W2 {% [但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。* P5 K, s; r+ `, M
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？4 @2 Z! D w6 r$ D, S+ T( d+ R; k
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
! K9 R8 M' l8 K R! \, r* n( r2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。. x) H' N. O# Q, V9 T
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来源：Alphractal; g2 U5 r! D* S
' k! f, N# A5 F15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。2 v/ @# ^. r$ m0 Z* U. G, { y4 |
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事情变得有趣了
- X7 d3 T1 B+ i/ }% v" G1 t; ~BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。- ^2 c6 P \, t P$ }7 G g( G; H+ p6 N
1 ~6 U O+ u/ q3 q; y5 _来源：X
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。 u- {# p( j/ x! }
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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" F _! ]' c: ]6 _正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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9 c7 X+ @. P0 x2 |( H7 k随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。* ^ i1 ]+ L9 P. D" w$ v
* |0 c% o0 Q% g空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
( J2 u1 Q0 g# t9 |! |* W经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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( R6 e3 T4 w+ ~& \8 w2 e$ Y来源：TradingView* H: d7 N- U- H1 J9 O+ u, @
/ g# `! p5 h* g9 r, a日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。2 e8 n0 `0 `' C5 X
' _6 y2 j' Y' `) a' L, j然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。8 C" z6 X! x/ d) r' ]3 w) Y
: t2 H# n- w6 [' j# D+ f( l9 \突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。" k( w) H! ?' A* J J6 S
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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