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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
$ g, f* }6 r9 ?* Q2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。2 ^6 V0 n2 ^! N2 {4 w5 K, q
" I, _* d& O0 Z3 R9 l来源：Alphractal( I; {9 W0 ]; k( Q% {, Q
- Y% T4 X$ q, ^& {15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。9 @# v- G! c5 ~) j. v0 W) B
4 q$ y; e& V# k5 l4 \# `, T( @事情变得有趣了6 l9 |* d' M4 w
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。" k- K2 i/ K! B! \$ d h
9 K: ~3 n0 t' S( f/ @5 _. }来源：X* l9 Z) z5 x0 x$ ^
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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9 w7 K# j$ [# I7 z' L# r; r正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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7 F: }) C: X, H随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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, y5 O* ?+ [& N* S% e( o: Q空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
, `2 b! U! c$ q2 F- w经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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来源：TradingView
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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5 w5 V$ M7 z: e然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。5 X5 _3 ?3 D9 J( f2 ~$ B% d
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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