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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。' P A9 S! R, a u+ `0 W) D5 L
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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3 w5 r8 }+ {0 K/ EUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？2 O# S% h+ W) M$ A+ O
: L" Z7 i. W9 ?0 s开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
& p- t! U. y1 i3 x) }( N2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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来源：Alphractal' v9 s. m. j; d G2 P- Q- h6 o, y$ k! }" L
, o( K# u" b0 M15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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& D/ p9 h: S) b尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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. E( ?. H3 I" f4 L0 T事情变得有趣了/ E; v; X& Z$ }0 ~+ e
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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0 N, A" V/ x" Q5 f5 ^+ b* @1 {来源：X; U( U) J5 e3 ]5 J7 a( n9 ^
- l7 T8 _6 S8 m3 I8 d3 D根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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" W+ T& Y9 ~ G. K b/ r正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。' k" V, ?$ Z W, F- t
( E! X9 N8 L) n3 p* R; e+ Q空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
( T$ M+ {7 ^' W) J经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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5 K# y# G5 j! H8 M9 L来源：TradingView: w- t/ J- r& }- g: ]( S0 a( ^
% M; N: s) F5 C, ~6 K. E, q日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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# ^1 c6 O* S1 Q+ ^9 p: i: K5 q, n然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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- s3 i0 d; u5 P- j# O$ _5 y突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。8 @6 P+ W8 K; r$ [: R
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