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[lastpost] => 2786228 比特币价格飙升，IBIT成为交易最活跃的ETF之一；矿业股下跌（转） 1764745789 rainwang
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币关键指标再次闪烁——BTC 会反弹至新高吗？（转）
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随着比特币徘徊在历史高点附近，积极的购买行为再次出现，但鲸鱼的行为却呈现出分歧。
* ?# H5 |& k+ XRSI 信号超买水平，而 MACD 动量减弱——BTC 需要突破 105,000 美元，否则有回调风险。
- d; z& V8 I" N x4 z( I比特币的[BTC]随着积极的买家涌入市场，市场势头再次增强。- Y7 O( d8 c( j! ]1 r
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接受者买入/卖出比率已飙升至 1.02，这是自几次历史性突破以来从未见过的水平，表明市场参与者的信心日益增强。
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6 v! g3 z+ d0 M8 H7 J链上数据显示，大型钱包正在加大增持力度，为许多人猜测的可能创下历史新高的最后冲刺做好准备。
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# u- D% q1 q. @. k随着市场情绪升温，BTC 价格徘徊在之前的峰值下方，下一轮上涨行情是否即将开始？5 }1 r0 O8 C+ e, O% s w# A" V
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市场信心[激增]？
: @3 s9 C. }( z6 J" w& ?根据最近的CryptoQuant 报告，Taker 买入/卖出比率已果断突破 1.00 大关，达到 1.02——这一水平在历史上与比特币价格走势的突破时刻相关。 B; P5 |6 N) _. N% M
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2022 年末，在 15,000 美元至 20,000 美元的积累区附近以及 2023 年 10 月突破 30,000 美元之前也出现了类似的峰值。
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/ V$ } B. |! a( I9 ]) X随着 BTC 目前徘徊在历史高点附近，积极购买的回归表明人们的信心日益增强——但这也提高了风险，因为这个门槛此前曾先于上涨和急剧逆转。$ u3 b* L, T Y) J. a d
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超级持有者已暂停
4 X- t6 u+ j- b尽管总体积累趋势依然看涨，但仔细观察就会发现行为发生了微妙的转变。
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根据 Glassnode，持有超过 10,000 BTC 的超大鲸鱼已经冷却了他们的购买活动，回到了 0.5 左右的中性积累分数。
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相比之下，中等规模的群体（持有 1,000 至 10,000 BTC 的钱包）仍然是活跃的买家，得分接近 0.9。
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即使是规模较小的机构投资者也表现出持续的强劲势头。然而，散户投资者仍在继续分散资金。
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' I1 b' l/ M, c$ C8 |4 B尽管看涨势头持续，但推动涨势的主要是中等规模的投资者，而非资金雄厚的投资者。+ n1 D y: {( S/ j
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比特币显示出疲软迹象- f' c; I3 W( g
RSI 为 70.68，确认了超买状况，这通常是局部顶部或小幅回调的前兆。
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2 |) y+ h1 @4 q此外，MACD指标仍保持看涨，MACD线位于信号线上方。然而，动能正在趋于平缓，反映出购买压力正在降温。( e- n- e- @6 r1 P# S8 l2 r: q1 ]% h
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尽管早些时候出现飙升，但价格仍然维持区间波动，暗示可能出现疲软。- ?1 o# v/ R# Q+ ~ h
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如果 BTC 未能令人信服地突破 105,000 美元，那么在任何持续突破尝试之前，短期回调至 100,000 美元或更低的支撑区域仍然有效。6 M- L$ L2 h+ p# s
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