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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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$ o! W4 y; O, _ 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。! t2 `5 o, `, c. K: [8 n: V
- {8 q1 I! B6 U- i8 _3 @ 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。* `+ b U4 f5 d, | F
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6 e; u( w6 u+ {, {3 H, r 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续* W- |3 F- u5 e( t
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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* ^+ A1 I& y7 B* Q3 ~! ~ B6 q) j 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。1 ?7 T% b7 Z" z4 i
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: a+ H* S1 A/ s. _: R9 Z: c% m 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。9 c! K; _+ y7 i
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，% s5 V# E2 N- p: w) q, f" S
% U+ A; e4 p+ N3 T; w6 n# ]' P价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。
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& A$ X* |" c1 ^8 i @% F “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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“$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在8 t5 N; ], q' g6 Z: m
. z8 n+ `7 s4 ]0 n: W3 ? a, {) Q积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”
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早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。! i3 s0 U9 t4 u% f
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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8 X* b; i n: x( M% I8 I0 E1 ] 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。
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9 w( P, i: j! v+ ` 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。) o2 T+ E, i" K* I# T" \
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/ A! N- ]2 V$ }! q& z# g 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，5 s% b- E5 ?. ]) R& e3 }5 x
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市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”
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