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[虚拟币交流]
Bitwise高管:人们正低估比特币 BTC将大幅上涨(转)
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据两位 Bitwise 高管称,在特朗普ZF威胁要改革全球贸易,而经济指标表明各国央行可能向市场注入现金之际,比特币是一个“世代机遇”。, w" J3 y; U/ T8 g& U3 o6 R
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Bitwise Asset Management 的阿尔法策略主管 Jeff Park 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中表示:“世界确实处于最大混乱的边缘。”
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Park 指出,2 月 12 日众议院共和党预算计划将债务上限提高 4 万亿美元,旨在增加ZF支出,同时还有去全球化趋势加剧,尤其是唐纳德·特朗普
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% \ w2 D% h5 ]' Q5 c( M* k( e# @最近升级的互惠关税威胁。7 ?+ y& U/ v2 O0 ]; J
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Park 还指出,市场将出现他所谓的“最大延迟”,指出“黄金跑赢大盘的尾部风险”,共和党高达 4.5 万亿美元的“史无前例的减税”,以及他认为即将实施) S4 P; j3 e- `# K& I r& w
$ i7 J/ D4 V0 s5 d' p2 q的收益率曲线控制 (YCC)——央行将长期利率作为刺激借贷和投资的目标。5 U$ V/ z7 a2 e0 e$ ?! {2 g' A
% B+ \& C2 ]+ Y6 _美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对今年进一步降息的可能性泼了冷水——2 月 11 日,他告诉参议院银行委员会,美国经济“保持强劲”,美国“不需要急于调整”利率。
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Bitwise 首席执行官 Hunter Horsley 在 2 月 16 日的 X 帖子中写道:“人们严重低估了比特币今年进入主流的巨大飞跃。从未如此乐观。”
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“BTC IV 百分位数是全年最低的,你看不到这一代机会,所以我们不一样了,”Park 补充道,他指的是比特币的隐含波动率百分位数——过去一年中波动率: [1 h/ B( T# Z0 O7 J: t3 E
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低于当前水平的天数百分比。
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6 N( D9 ~' n. D8 Z+ j3 m/ Z根据 Deribit 的数据,比特币的波动率指数目前为 50.90,低于年度高点 71.28,IV 百分位数为 12.3。+ x8 N) m; c+ {- Z# `; ?, F" e
! {) Q: b- B$ @" w) t& p: z% C据 CoinGecko 数据,比特币在过去 24 小时内下跌超过 1.5%,交易价格略高于 96,000 美元。: C- u3 W6 j. t; E
+ u! v+ {' I: a/ {今年到目前为止,比特币的交易价格在 90,000 美元至 100,000 美元之间,但在上个月末特朗普就职典礼期间达到 108,786 美元的峰值。
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追踪加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数的市场情绪在 2 月 17 日为 51 分(总分为 100 分),表明市场处于“中性”状态。市场情绪较上周的“恐惧”水平有所改善,但低于
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上个月更为积极的市场情绪水平。" X1 q# p) d2 T8 c& l
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