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[lastpost] => 2796859 通过 Polymarket 对预测市场的深度洞察及观点定价的本质(转) 1768352302 22301
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当前离线
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势# K+ a: `8 ]5 T# N& N. u# ~
* @6 Y" P4 Y+ Z过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。% @3 @# K& c% {2 m( J2 s
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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, q* ^) p" X) ^6 o4 M+ O: o! R+ }CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期# Z; Z. x) s( j! X, c
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当前持仓成本:
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9 a9 o1 k2 o. T5 R机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;+ k$ N8 D; L( L4 C! ?
' B( f$ x% n) ZETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。$ A. I: \/ x: V, s$ n3 [' w( I# X
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比特币价值回归:$ X, y' Z1 ~* M5 H
) z* F! s! D; Q2 Z( D0 i市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。$ L) J) k+ U) X# I& k( h# b
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随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。, ^" r+ C+ y2 @
+ q N1 l1 C5 q' W! H0 M( C8 X5 j
加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
/ [& Q1 T9 C; i. n
. H/ P( |5 W9 L" M$ e; \! `5 j, Q3. 市场热点与反弹情况" L- b- d/ v$ O- \
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ETH:
% Q0 _" b+ J0 G& x# {
" O/ Q2 ], p- [9 y2 N% ]/ j1 ^& o4 n虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。: u6 d2 N5 m; T7 r: M3 Z
+ J5 B4 m- S; A+ K# M
机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。9 a& u% U# w( a0 Z+ ?0 I. b! [
9 `: J3 F( ]6 m/ p( e如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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SOL与XRP:* K c" u: {6 H8 n+ A' C2 }1 L
0 x+ b. Q' C& J H. u8 wSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。3 j# S4 n& f, a( X* S
Y6 N1 e- g* V$ X其他热点项目:
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涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目# q1 ~0 X' _; U. e5 L3 f
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。4 a# |. }( k; ^- K
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。' G9 T/ ~7 e6 |" G
$ K. W" [1 C/ e. q
新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。- E( ?& _$ c- B! H9 ^3 U$ l% o; d' r* B
# p0 e2 z1 I* D8 O- e. F+ j: j市场展望2 B/ Z% R7 N2 a; Q5 r4 X
5 E2 v5 Z- k+ {; Y3 t) R+ ~! Z0 H9 k* C随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。0 S& V/ J: f9 B
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当前离线
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