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[lastpost] => 2764896 加密货币交易所GeminiIPO散户配额高达30%,上市前夕豪赌散户热情(转) 1757649332 南相楚
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势' `& L; Q$ n1 C
% f' F) ]. f* O' v过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。4 g9 V$ |7 ]" Z& L% U
) m. X& e2 M# p kPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。2 F# `# T5 M7 ?
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
* {* a" ]; J' s0 b, R9 i; v
3 \! T* t5 T2 W; C7 b$ o8 B. H2 s2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期# C- w/ I# L& B3 B% {. N% o
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当前持仓成本:
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8 g9 v; X: f% p% A4 B9 h机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
: g: R h3 ]% B4 W0 f0 U1 o
' `7 f/ H, i- V* L6 |) E微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。& @- `' b# k* E
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比特币价值回归:
3 B/ }0 V/ |8 r, g. _2 X; ]. n! v! @
市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。! u# B# p2 R$ W, l6 c1 C
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随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
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# C9 @- z1 z; |( U加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
* O3 r, |$ M# ?: m q- \! G# K- q' g
) M2 J: U" W& Y A \ ?- O3. 市场热点与反弹情况
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/ X A/ r. Z( G$ F+ l( f& ?( ZETH:
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\' p" y" i$ Q+ A虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。9 Z2 P0 h& r- d R h' _2 M
+ x+ r( H9 ?3 h3 w机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。' \* U/ w3 T' K
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BTC:4 Z+ s7 J* s" H! \- x- _5 \
( l" o3 ~' R1 k& |9 t尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。' f, Q' |- Z% d9 E
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。7 p( q$ I! Y1 W% h) i- k, T
" I+ V( B- B" h I- M1 S0 l5 S1 Z* OSOL与XRP:
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。7 I0 O9 z+ K8 d N+ }
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XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。3 n" M, g- b% y6 @/ u' k0 p
7 C3 B8 `1 c4 b1 k5 k
其他热点项目:& ]& j6 J Z" y( D3 H1 Y
: R: B' J1 U! t- C" o涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。1 j6 u" ]) B1 z' A% A- h2 ?, N% _4 n' y
6 I1 d) s" i+ o( v" A山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。" ^; B5 ?6 _ G: {* e9 P/ I
2 H/ z1 f8 r6 a n- J$ s8 U8 l/ g4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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$ l, z+ }! P) `% ^; nAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。- M9 s- m; w7 A1 T8 t- @, Y( E
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。/ Q, ~1 A1 X1 j% P4 i+ p( i6 P
7 H# I6 g' ?+ r- \9 j9 G7 {1 Z新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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市场展望
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8 t; R; }1 H' J/ v: A# [: [/ G5 X随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。4 _2 @. s- B' E( _( ~5 \* F
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