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[lastpost] => 2781853 狗狗币这一波又是跌回解放前啦 1763264780 22301
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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。
- g# o: l4 E8 _" ]自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。, Q( N. D7 }: V+ E
4 b- O8 Y4 r1 i9 M7 I) e6 G自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。, e0 n2 h$ m* G; j$ Q: w& g- L
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阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。
+ G# o, c! H( i" O; ^% S u3 d2 p, S N: {2 A S
2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。
9 Q* w! \* E9 x" i0 I3 Q
7 u. K' a* a- x% f9 A ^, {8 O那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?
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. \5 B/ A# @6 w4 f4 T' k" ^观察ETF和鲸鱼活动
# t6 A! y9 x- z8 x# l分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。8 O, J* U* B) z" B3 N% @0 P
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上周降至1300 BTC。8 e& O3 o9 n ~& P3 S$ Y
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从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。
: Z) K' u+ `" Q2 E5 `: A& Y
c, P" k3 q% p- ?鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。
% H; U3 n. ^8 S" i' D8 G
( b O0 x! n/ u5 T鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。
: ?! e5 i) F6 C* ^( q# \! R9 ~1 w8 Y9 r% I2 T
Santiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。
+ s. h# a* x$ N+ J. H& w5 G% @5 [$ Y# B3 d
尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。
4 j8 W8 A6 p: a6 J6 W& D3 i* j8 S4 U0 y6 M6 d+ Q( }
比特币会突破其区间吗?
2 {6 r& B: v" ^随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。
2 P D; P: ~1 g& K. n
2 F& r4 X* K. W/ k$ T根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。
+ g2 t! {$ [- s' i) D, X) b' e
) Z1 X) u# V0 P) |' k因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。! m' c( G- {( p! s& n+ ^0 ?
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技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。6 C: k; r0 X7 \6 g0 w$ _3 M
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位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。% z$ _8 g+ @' X2 U" h5 i9 W- W F
然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。
% x# D' e i, c3 n9 ~5 H; L3 ]" ^, ?) _2 E. ~
根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。7 [2 _, _2 L2 Y$ x, r
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