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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
# N: y+ z1 s. s. w4 s     ' m0 G% T& R7 R9 u, W
     平手中水,主队有利
3 v3 T: ?* m5 U4 s% W     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。, ^2 F( b/ M! V/ Y6 x% ^
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
% ]5 S- E+ M- W1 j* t5 R     英超主队8 ?( A( i; d- Q; d
     胜:13场 48%' }! M7 T3 U& c1 ^: n
     平:5场 17%8 W' n8 C9 t$ V5 l# X
     负:9场 35%
8 \+ M8 l& B. a3 ]9 `     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。) n& x2 G8 `) z
     % a9 F. T1 D7 O6 E: N, N
     一、初盘阶段
  H0 @3 `, y& X: z3 i     具体到水位如下:* W$ K4 _3 ]5 ?3 D3 A$ c7 `# n
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
4 m8 t1 W: ?/ P* u6 \: L6 w1 [' L     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
& P% ?8 T6 t- g& y& J7 A4 d: j     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
, f# Q- b. @) H+ ^! P+ J     
; j9 q. ~7 @5 P2 B, g) _1 H     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
3 s3 {- X, L+ X4 X/ ^4 @     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
9 ?2 a! G% t8 r+ e( s& m4 K0 B     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。( Q/ B2 w* w& R2 r5 e8 _4 _; d
     
0 U: v9 N5 k# O# {6 h# a     二、临场阶段3 D; x% \" T5 o4 L$ k9 s5 P
     
% m; ~5 f$ z/ S* O     具体到变盘和水位如下:
/ O. `5 }' r( c& q     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负& {  J$ l" \) [, Q
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负2 v1 F& m* g; i9 z
     
) q  K; v! _: _' C0 G! [- X  P     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
' g+ @( g2 e9 h3 `3 n     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
2 R7 N0 V# Q; E     - Z3 F( b  A0 L1 F0 T0 R2 K
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
/ f3 N/ \4 [- [. K     初盘:0.82平手1.04
9 z3 D9 d/ R9 e: q. n     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
# N5 B0 c! l" N0 S0 M& D3 o4 D$ Q     
3 l" }. f! X! `% ]5 v     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆& p- N& f1 m: H9 c
     初盘:0.76平手1.10# i0 L$ x1 A& j
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
6 A  A$ P5 F2 x- M' v: J     
+ G1 F% B$ R" [9 e5 ?. }2 }8 R     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
" R1 O* \7 q! `8 l/ j  l5 t     初盘:0.82平手1.04
6 o* ~3 ^' ~' [0 o+ X     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
, X5 `  _+ b" E0 ~- j0 a* G     
: o3 j9 P" |8 j$ U     伯恩利2-1西汉姆3 O( w8 N+ t, b; W; s% n3 a6 ?
     初盘:0.88平手0.98' N, x( w% X2 l$ }* T/ r8 }
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74/ H% Y) }) d/ a* M9 x% J
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
  @3 h: {: S) ~7 ~0 b$ X% J  N     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。- s9 g% O5 _( r  c
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。2 K% r  E. ^7 T2 w
     # d4 x8 ]1 j* ]8 T- Q) F' L, B- X
     三、球队表现
6 \: _6 e0 [. |' M/ c( V9 @0 C$ a9 ^     # c! u* k" F# G% |7 H
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
  Q/ i8 c$ J8 w. K' u     
% b; i$ a3 \, x: N     四、投注要点2 u# B8 |5 b/ M. l) c. i8 O4 d
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
# O# Y& s" t0 _4 v" Z     要点2:平手降盘、走两头7 Z) T1 i1 C% t9 J- w
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败: r/ d  A& p  @5 V1 T
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
% N2 Q, `& m, ~, |2 j) b     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任7 F% j+ c+ I- p% ^
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大+ T/ v8 `8 ~( U2 |$ a0 i6 S' F5 {
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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