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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
3 b+ h; D4 u3 ^* B6 ~     ! I8 U7 f/ o* Z
     平手中水,主队有利/ r# ]; Y* s) q: B$ A4 r% [
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。1 b( k- C: n, F& F
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
- ]. h* e0 I) C8 S6 J$ Y     英超主队
: H0 A. }. \$ R4 d1 {     胜:13场 48%& Z: A3 a, D; r
     平:5场 17%# o4 C) A8 P7 S# t' ]
     负:9场 35%
1 `- b! x2 _  a' `9 r     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
+ L' t6 e5 l( \3 D' ^3 V     
5 j% d" n# d: {% i0 C     一、初盘阶段7 v7 S- \7 R0 Q' b0 e' V. y/ F/ Z
     具体到水位如下:
5 v2 d" j& p9 k6 d" d3 w6 s     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
. y) e6 A4 e6 q: I5 n# z' `     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
$ r5 d" ~; A8 q( P& ]  s. L     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负. J1 S$ @% B; |! {4 m8 l( f
     1 P/ ?$ `6 b' V! a2 a! n
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。/ N7 A& F# N. ^2 C3 N5 T5 ~
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
* K% s5 n5 z, u: I5 {" @/ z, G) M     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。3 l- ]0 u  R$ l. M
     - ~" ~& G, K4 Z" p7 D
     二、临场阶段
- e8 f8 ?( ~% w& p( T     
% o7 W: }# z& l) X     具体到变盘和水位如下:+ m' R( R' d3 N" ~' x
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
2 E1 Z+ d/ X5 R) q- u7 K  t     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
; g" {' d! ?5 m  j     
! D# ?) D' P0 b     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。! M' Q& o5 B! |
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:0 f/ B+ P2 f9 f+ \5 A* ^  c, _9 |
     
% U+ r; R2 M; s     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
  B  J) V7 X) y* e$ O% @. f. L     初盘:0.82平手1.04) a3 ?# l8 ^1 h& x8 A0 B
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.850 k2 f! H0 ~) G3 o' Q  B% @
     
0 u) p; M( o, D" ]+ c5 |- `     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
7 r6 G) r5 i0 v1 ~8 u! [     初盘:0.76平手1.10  W( _4 K; T! V1 B3 K# G6 G3 ]- e
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91; n: X, I, U9 A, B; g
     9 p5 d2 u- F  R
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技8 m3 K3 _+ `+ W3 \& |3 Z# D/ W
     初盘:0.82平手1.04  z# e& @, W% [3 g% E) q: p0 c* f
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98. T, I, H  G+ l1 c  u2 G% z& o
     
' s; W. @% v7 z1 j3 E* o! t1 ^4 w     伯恩利2-1西汉姆! i/ \/ ?6 b+ G. J6 w. ^: Y7 F% J
     初盘:0.88平手0.98( x7 W0 v- b, C' {4 I
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74, X0 T' E$ d# p( `) T
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
/ u% V; V  o) F  S! ^1 H     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。+ o  D8 {+ p( w0 n2 y+ M. Y) r, C7 R
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
" j6 O, E6 k7 S( g6 V     - n3 L: v1 |" T; Q0 {' v4 j
     三、球队表现
: [* a/ }, g4 `( D3 s     
, v- s% \$ c7 }, o     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。; ^7 p- p, i. z2 d% z+ V5 l
     * C7 }% W/ f% r6 R7 [
     四、投注要点
, C: F& \: Z# T* r# D4 F4 D     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
7 K9 w5 I" _- s9 b- n0 l     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
1 y  J3 J0 ]( i% l9 j% I7 g8 e     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
; R% X4 Y2 s! f; N/ F$ I6 i     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大4 i8 U, h3 @: `
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
. J, U( L) C9 l% ?     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
" M6 C, k8 h8 A1 Y" M     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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