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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
/ g, R  V% u* R6 o     
/ d1 w5 c) ~! J! V' U, k. b0 ~9 i( ~     平手中水,主队有利% I3 i$ x# }% I4 A
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。$ A" t9 w( @1 Q
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
" F; k3 B! }, `* }& k     英超主队
7 g- z# D4 d* @& {/ ~" ]     胜:13场 48%
, I, }. I- ?3 d7 D) n7 U" o6 e1 \8 ^     平:5场 17%! E; K& J2 h8 _* p( s$ e6 G# x* A
     负:9场 35%
& K6 a9 Z6 P" r' Q: A     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
5 |6 v& n3 \0 q0 ?  W- a7 S     
( L: q; `) M5 n6 a& l     一、初盘阶段3 ?& @  M/ c+ c2 I" w& P! A
     具体到水位如下:  Y- h/ a7 h" A0 Y
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
5 X+ f, ]( h( e4 s     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负2 U* t; e  p( D1 H! L: _& L
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负& D5 r& D4 U+ {* @: W
     - o; d0 o" T& v6 e* q
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。! c/ s) S+ J% k$ h" l! v3 V
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
( }7 T9 r4 c/ j/ f3 M! U8 r: y     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。' `2 b& e! y  y9 y8 j
     
+ ~) d" @  _1 t$ L" R     二、临场阶段
/ q9 f5 z) \3 K! d- [) j8 N     
' k4 Q" w5 d. G: R0 D7 q     具体到变盘和水位如下:$ {6 k; K3 f* J; z5 X
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负7 q, r8 a- p$ P% y" i: k
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负3 ?. x& U- {; W
     1 ?1 @2 r5 A7 {0 H& @" g' [# j
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
4 |6 _7 j; U% L: Z- |) J     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
! ~- _. V2 p, \8 r/ C. J9 l* _     & ?" R: @7 [2 x+ }5 g6 |
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
; U9 ^: y. Q* d     初盘:0.82平手1.04
: W. a+ ?; W8 `5 o6 e1 C     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
& x' s9 P: l. V, X& c     
% ?5 c) ?3 B$ X3 p' [     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆" I( n+ o$ {- G9 k  A* ~) `
     初盘:0.76平手1.10
2 F& M: G3 T, ^( j     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
9 P) v7 \3 c) J& c) h     # G( R( k6 a" M; f1 k9 T0 W+ p
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技& V" r8 Q* X! h: i
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
+ c( h  H2 l0 ^8 D; A     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.982 ?  n3 c! Q+ y- y7 o) _
     
6 {; i% d  ^. r. l" u- ]1 O     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
6 Q) X7 {& F5 r1 l% G     初盘:0.88平手0.98
8 P9 n+ }  ?! e+ q/ N' t& @) z     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
5 T% ^1 ?" ^- v7 V) K2 c- Z6 B! [     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。0 ]* T9 |' Q3 {2 H
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
: w# G5 u5 W# E: p- [' i# }     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。' ^, q, Z' \7 h! a. z
     
2 U( Y- c7 o/ [1 K     三、球队表现
5 L& Y; k2 G  w     % a1 z3 Y9 [- h- @* c: B6 I8 s
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。: a) J) ]- x2 }& |! N0 M) ^
     
$ g& x. W  {1 Y7 |' c/ v     四、投注要点1 ?9 k, M. a" ]. d  a
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败* \. t# r2 I" T( ?
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头4 E* U" m% \% q( x, m
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
$ X8 O- |; z" U/ z     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大$ o  U8 V4 j/ j8 i
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任% z* x! m2 O5 R
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大: M0 {1 \0 u' f1 v4 L. V( r4 A
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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