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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
5 F: u) h3 T$ t( f" _/ C) g& Y     $ @" t2 v9 O7 v- l
     平手中水,主队有利) P3 q; B+ r, O* E8 H
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。1 l3 y7 h: V7 o. U/ O8 ^" ~6 L6 @
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:/ n" c  g) p& }/ q2 {" o4 v
     英超主队+ Z* o, G% w5 `/ ?4 u
     胜:13场 48%
) H+ A3 n( {: ~" r: E, C( M& S     平:5场 17%
3 T8 A9 c$ Q# f4 V( `     负:9场 35%
1 g9 h6 [5 r; O0 j5 |' R     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
/ x5 p. |; ~& S" s' s     4 X- a' M3 b/ m, c5 A! n
     一、初盘阶段
' w8 ]+ ^4 t  C, A4 P% q- K9 I     具体到水位如下:, \+ o0 }& `, Y, N( z- t+ T3 n6 L
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负( ?! c$ L( X+ m* b  ]- F. _
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
6 Z4 S1 h- U4 a# j% [     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负* Q) C, ]% c$ {& P: ?
     % A- a$ A# t5 H
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
) I, n' C  d) e+ |9 H8 c5 [! b, A9 N     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。1 j% j- X% k* o5 k& W  H
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
, \2 T3 U) N( `& j% s0 ?     
0 z) y' `' E& W     二、临场阶段# l8 M/ _3 e  {7 R1 s& A+ D, s( W
     
" i: c: {1 H# r! T) u9 T     具体到变盘和水位如下:% t" f& L1 R( b5 A6 d
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负1 X# p2 C' z% U' x( Y/ Q( w% q
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
2 y; c1 L9 G0 ^; b     
: }6 m6 e! H, I2 U2 k     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
3 K. e: C0 T; D" w9 u2 M! d     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
% G& A( {" c4 [# n/ @4 ?     
! t" ?% e6 D. S* o1 |     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
6 ~- U, y4 P+ N' K     初盘:0.82平手1.04) i8 q: N; R% B3 T/ m- L6 B/ A
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
& X# @1 Q, w' a; g  t! N, f0 Z     
9 O- q+ t& |6 a4 K- K) h; S     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆7 Q% _0 x- s% G( J. y
     初盘:0.76平手1.10; S% n- y3 o7 d) P  b2 C. \3 d
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
* ?7 H- o7 \. X+ Y) t+ _3 u, Y- |     ; Z" C. T' S4 O9 r
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
( l& j4 N; s+ r     初盘:0.82平手1.04
% |4 h2 q. o+ D) A( I8 `1 @( \  \     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
. ~0 e+ j: B7 G3 y     
+ l6 b$ R5 W7 |* B     伯恩利2-1西汉姆. u! H* e5 a+ }  m$ \) T5 q  d
     初盘:0.88平手0.98
7 f& z+ F# V8 \1 N* Q  {- x     终盘:1.12平/半0.74" A% e  |5 Z7 N, ^% I, g
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
1 Z& X6 h" O1 q- F: L     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
3 O' J0 _: ]7 z, b+ y* t     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
  S) a. R6 o. W8 [& ?  a+ M     & T; v' O2 X0 @, [, ~5 X
     三、球队表现7 a' ]  J$ ]# V+ K0 @# \( A
     
" I, G) J5 ]7 _5 w- D, z2 `$ x; @     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
. G3 p! u$ l: T4 ~  j) n     ; L& z8 p" r9 l1 q* c; {
     四、投注要点, |0 D* `  {- {3 x, ^; A# L) a" r7 w3 I
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败# k1 N* v/ O; N+ w3 @2 O
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头( Q, e: G1 Y) ?- D
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
9 `! A3 S) a* g. }     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大& j2 q0 K0 W. v) h" u
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
, }8 g$ C' K* q0 c6 }     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大' l* X! J8 V* n5 @6 ?$ H
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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