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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
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平手中水,主队有利
1 M) v3 @0 H% K+ v, ~2 u 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。3 P3 ~ W. ^. o! k/ \- ~' b
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
/ o1 O1 ~ C+ f- A& v6 p 英超主队
: m$ O% a; {6 A; E2 p0 w 胜:13场 48%
( i' v4 Y/ V/ b% r3 w 平:5场 17%1 {: P0 R% O) ?1 X
负:9场 35%) z& }, [0 v+ t5 B+ A1 x
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
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一、初盘阶段. }: {. I7 j) h' S7 b
具体到水位如下:
- C" M3 G9 j5 s 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
: \$ e, l& r( Z, {- N9 F 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
+ \+ x' u# d4 H8 R% n 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负9 R6 A$ y: c$ G) X- B1 u* v
9 A4 ~. E- ^( Z8 v 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
) ~9 w% a! s. F" K& ~3 m6 u& x 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。, R: q9 x/ L5 H
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。6 G1 C M) k2 A0 k4 y1 q. ^
7 f$ e. t1 z, M9 Z5 a: d3 b 二、临场阶段# H# F8 ~1 T' x9 r- @! d
+ E& D4 F0 N8 {" r: ]' @( o
具体到变盘和水位如下:, P1 s* ?8 c1 i
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
. F% I" s) n* @, O3 y8 e 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
4 Z1 p( o- _4 ?# K
) Q2 F* i! m' Q# P' r 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
4 I# y- I: l+ R0 a$ l2 f, W 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:2 r* s* ]1 |* f% V
$ v+ G; f' z7 i/ ^
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿% w( H4 z6 l0 K k
初盘:0.82平手1.04
6 z. }4 g) c) q5 d0 R& O+ F 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.850 k4 U# m6 h. q0 `" i
* c# o/ D# E6 F t+ p8 s
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆4 \/ G) m" d3 z; ]& ?
初盘:0.76平手1.10
- G j& \/ J* C$ B1 e$ y j 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.916 C$ V7 M2 s; s# B
. `, f. E8 d+ W
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技" k) n/ y( h2 i' z% Z) {; N- G
初盘:0.82平手1.04% [- d; F" `- V
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
" d) i& T8 a4 v( v. C( L B) b! X
" A* s' V$ M2 W' S 伯恩利2-1西汉姆2 ?7 Q4 Y2 I8 ^0 v/ J0 b2 Y, r" v
初盘:0.88平手0.985 |4 }: r1 r4 R# r6 j7 z& E# Q' @
终盘:1.12平/半0.74
# @; J; L/ Q- \) ^6 u 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
) O9 W' T, z5 P$ Z9 W3 s 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。 u0 w1 O* a5 U. W. J2 ?
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
& L# n- R* Z( [+ t( o( n" T* n
: |. z: c2 j8 ~+ O d% j8 K6 C 三、球队表现
C& h+ M9 |0 y + D2 ]/ |& y4 a4 u$ }9 D2 l# [
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
n7 B- t. o' ?3 D H 3 t4 O; m. X8 H6 S/ Z: x6 ?
四、投注要点
& {' y0 N2 v* W* r* x 要点1:平手中水、主多不败9 K. a8 j1 O5 v) ]- g' }: z6 |5 T/ _
要点2:平手降盘、走两头" e; K4 H' l3 b4 ^8 r: }3 `
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败& |* }0 H# D0 ^7 _# m0 f
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
+ y: ~2 C4 X: G C' d 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
3 l5 \0 D/ A# p/ A2 o 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大0 a) c! v! Q! ^
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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