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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘1 L2 q% B$ W; o9 U% x
     * y7 ]3 I) ^+ |2 u
     平手中水,主队有利
, J  J9 R. E. E# b4 v     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
4 q+ f: g0 o1 I7 f& T; k  S2 z     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:- X8 f6 n( Y' E
     英超主队; |7 G( u3 _. }, v
     胜:13场 48%
) [% y9 z" ?4 {2 ]     平:5场 17%
( G+ m5 l& n& e6 y     负:9场 35%+ {/ }  R* i6 t
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。! d) n: z3 ]( ?# c! q
     % a8 z6 x" g3 S' P/ U- r
     一、初盘阶段, ~% u5 @" }2 C# i
     具体到水位如下:8 n9 S+ v; G$ _8 x* T% R/ \
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
3 z4 O7 {! V7 ?! Y2 ~$ E: O* j( }     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负( G( A, j# }1 C$ h
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
3 Q! Y' h& T8 ~, w( z8 _8 ~     
& v2 s4 u4 z, }) k5 h8 G4 O     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。" r& B8 ]4 J3 C3 I& s
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。! E& Z! a7 S" C" |7 g
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
( V4 R% {/ o2 Z' r     1 _; m" q, X) B" k: ~7 Y" p1 x& `
     二、临场阶段7 V! ~! d' u. P7 O3 T: A1 }7 t
     3 \) s% q- X, ~% P0 y( p
     具体到变盘和水位如下:# w( G. U- S: X
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负, ^! B6 d0 z8 H2 C
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
9 Q) j) M8 X& |+ e     $ r1 ]) s5 g  ~0 w! b( e8 m+ q9 }
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。& W1 K  h$ ]* z5 o$ g
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
6 d) G: o6 _- [+ J: P" e     % P8 x! `; V5 t
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿& U6 b. L/ b; |5 }) I
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
$ b& X, F% W2 E& R* [) [     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85: m3 ~8 i& A- a/ w, F  o
     
9 Y% `' v% f& [" V" F. C     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
! D0 a, v1 I7 p- ?$ k+ }( ?% \! p     初盘:0.76平手1.10
2 ^. X' j( U, G" A3 x8 ]2 p+ k     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
1 b' _3 t& z" ]0 k+ b     5 W$ B' \! P1 l; i6 q7 I6 k! F
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技+ V% _( n) |7 o+ E5 z
     初盘:0.82平手1.04: s3 m& H1 n2 b3 ~" h2 l6 c- J" i
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
' M2 W5 s3 S5 G6 D8 E% t, P$ m5 \5 Y     $ o. v: r( g3 L; H
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆6 w- f7 v6 b6 n" r" ]) Y
     初盘:0.88平手0.98" R2 \) L, f( N+ N( }2 E* `
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
# b; p; H' `0 b! o* y     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。  I; V* v" y& M1 m, r1 ^* n1 t
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
' a9 M4 P0 j8 X4 h) T     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。  T4 ~, |0 E; D* B) h! p
     
' T# P% Z- e' K2 g8 E2 }     三、球队表现- H2 e% V" O, N$ p" S* j7 _& w
     
6 K' T0 w3 ]6 T     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。! d1 S' Z3 J+ [. M: ^5 e- S" s7 L
     # X8 a: S! {0 L* J. i. E" j
     四、投注要点
9 r5 |' Z* c* W+ L7 G8 m7 a) v     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
6 Q  u: Z9 A, v. d' d8 x     要点2:平手降盘、走两头- e- x, G9 x4 R  ?3 J- {4 n
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
7 q2 k3 J3 i% W" \6 y  B     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
! r7 I# f' ?% O     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任2 o3 |' B- `( R0 I5 `! u5 [$ E+ b! _2 A
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大* _* S) |' z! o  ?2 `. k
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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