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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘# l: v- E5 v; s1 Z7 y
     
# Z0 j+ N7 ?/ g7 w  t: x* Y+ z     平手中水,主队有利/ M# y5 y% p& @: R$ O0 K
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
8 e/ B" q6 G/ O     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
* I/ U- v; E+ I1 C     英超主队
' }9 u6 J* z1 f4 k+ u/ m( }     胜:13场 48%' \; H! y3 f: V. Z. l5 ?, e
     平:5场 17%
, a! ~' c1 _5 i# c7 ?8 P9 o     负:9场 35%
1 s$ X. t% x1 l9 ^% o" N     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
  Q9 F& u+ M3 G0 _( B' M     
; ]! X4 e# A; t9 C! f" Y! ^  Z" l     一、初盘阶段
2 D& A: [( w7 X: j; j7 M     具体到水位如下:
5 X$ Y# F! k+ |& K* m  p     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负$ ^0 o! Z& P% c% v2 J; W
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
& r; Q: q3 D0 }8 d. {     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
- Z) Z+ q* t% a, {: ^+ B$ s     * S9 D+ A4 r9 h5 r$ v* G
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。  R$ C4 @$ ~) O, t
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。% S7 K0 y8 A$ Z8 b  m
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。$ h) p) x; C5 F; g
     8 \( T% p" W( @8 f7 r, D
     二、临场阶段0 l, k+ Q+ {; y* Y9 a0 p  |: t/ q
     ! i  x' C, ~, J! r# O3 m
     具体到变盘和水位如下:
4 z( O3 J! [9 h/ r     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负  r; h; V4 b: T( _* e2 t
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负3 }! v( U9 _9 T
     
$ e- J- M8 A9 S6 Q: z2 Z/ w     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
+ x! P+ D( a0 _- z, d9 d     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
7 u* {" m, ?# f3 d  w: [/ r: l     
+ v8 V5 `# F: x. I1 X) Y, `     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
5 G) `- y# z- s     初盘:0.82平手1.04
0 a9 ]4 L# k" u     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.857 j2 [6 U2 K# U% z8 b9 q
     
0 r- l* Q  t6 p+ t, j1 G9 b     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
' a( |; ]' i3 Q$ f/ a, s. r     初盘:0.76平手1.10, ]( ]: M+ y: N- W# K, }4 K
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91! [( a3 ~' D! |2 s; A
     
0 a1 [5 f5 I" G" q$ [/ w* e     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
& M+ z1 V7 x$ H. {5 u# f0 f     初盘:0.82平手1.04
5 @& l. |8 r- f     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98. ]8 Y2 r7 g9 S2 X) D* T
     
# J2 C, N4 D: _/ H4 u7 A     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
+ S. Y% X1 r4 f     初盘:0.88平手0.983 _" I0 G" \& A- M* m3 E
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74* P5 L# _- x! c: i* N2 j/ H
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
" @, Y8 P: ^" ~$ z) m     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。* {7 }3 U3 U: `4 g4 i
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。% L/ Q! W/ z+ k
     ; W2 S" f- A4 N. Q1 Y% O, s
     三、球队表现4 H9 j) P& r* K% K
     3 @/ v- g3 A& v  K; @1 y7 v
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
- n; v* D" q* E8 [. U, N     ; H9 G1 _( x9 [* t) \
     四、投注要点4 n8 {$ v+ b+ h# C
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
" M$ B# K! E+ G     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
! M& Y; |) z2 I     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
# L, _# n; u; m( L# ?     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
% k' N. Z. B4 B9 _     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
' Z, T0 S" S6 q6 u  _1 c: U     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大% }6 q( _# q2 c4 }! r/ t$ M
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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