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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘( H" _+ t/ K/ H
* Z: L. }' O; M2 x
平手中水,主队有利
6 T! }+ ]$ P( V) g% o 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。6 g2 t9 D) G" S9 k' F3 S
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
+ l+ F v( e! g s( Z$ C 英超主队
, J6 k y- v4 j1 B R t 胜:13场 48%
: i4 }4 ^9 M" C, l 平:5场 17%
+ M T6 ?+ h. ^ a( M2 l+ Y 负:9场 35%
: A8 v; q% ]3 I' E& E4 f/ P# M" i9 s 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。9 e) |4 K2 w% x0 m6 H3 S
: _5 h, p _% |0 L' R q6 E) ?: ? 一、初盘阶段/ [' B3 r$ N; ]- P7 R. @9 ?
具体到水位如下:; J9 X% y% w& _) [
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
. s' n( u9 F7 B9 k: p 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
: s+ h* h$ q' K Q' Z 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负5 w* [* q9 {' W# m% F! \7 U4 a
6 w1 r. G: X s( M* i 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。 |' `7 _3 P! q( |
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
' m# z B, o& Z6 A$ F( Y 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。5 J9 l E( y# O3 w# [! p
/ d* W3 c# T+ j! ]$ t; {" o
二、临场阶段
. U& T( h/ i8 E" [* S* l 7 |1 w$ j3 L7 L+ E9 ?, f
具体到变盘和水位如下:* N+ D- L0 W9 N: ^) X& M
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负, C. H' L: D4 Z
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负7 x8 t4 {: \ k) q6 J% T! x! v! L
8 b3 w H- b; o" H9 o p; d
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。+ {7 @3 ^) \3 L* I6 Q0 s- X
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
5 z# L* N% w: @- C1 }: K* _
9 }3 q4 o+ F5 I$ w: y 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿( `4 O' r w% Q9 v5 p! {4 h, g
初盘:0.82平手1.04
6 Z( X' ~; r7 n$ O. d- G9 b; q1 r 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
2 `6 k6 `2 R |4 M 4 i' A' y' ]& p
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆& D1 K' G3 k1 s& A6 Y
初盘:0.76平手1.10
7 N6 ?) o. z( w4 b 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
7 s: m2 X: z: O2 L " N- [- U, F% ~ U
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
, t$ m$ Y/ `: g- C$ _; F 初盘:0.82平手1.04; R. |( k) k* {9 m) H( D7 z9 ~
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98, j" u h0 N- Y- D, }4 F, t: T R
5 A3 c7 ~- Z* @0 j. r/ K% G. H; i# ?
伯恩利2-1西汉姆( l/ c& {3 i# J( ^/ B' W1 L0 g7 X* @
初盘:0.88平手0.98. S0 V5 o5 o" M8 [& e1 ?
终盘:1.12平/半0.74
; A# w) f! R) w/ C& g g/ e0 j 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。: L6 ]! Z3 E; f' r$ U$ G# b; v
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。) Z$ U! O+ \3 L% r
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。6 z0 U. p$ q. Z9 D e, f+ o
2 T8 j& t" U" [& t. s 三、球队表现, q) N3 ~/ V2 u4 ^6 R2 X
' a+ J: w4 d/ {( A7 d9 C 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
- p/ w& ]# V1 R& r* ~! _
9 ~: Y. n; s: O, [ T* l 四、投注要点+ d/ p8 |, o! n) f- X7 G
要点1:平手中水、主多不败7 n, B. s! d3 R4 ^- U& }( ]
要点2:平手降盘、走两头: [ b l+ t0 s, j2 `) l( N6 s
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败& p5 g0 ? O6 z5 `: I$ t/ Q
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
9 }4 ~0 H& t. H+ h9 T. ] 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任# W% @$ Q5 }# W. S4 ^# Y. c( `
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大6 q A6 f* c5 }; p% C
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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