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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
+ W" D& \9 ]% ]3 w8 `
( K7 V1 j& Q& D0 p1 }& x9 e 平手中水,主队有利3 E1 U6 w( ]9 [6 Q) z4 U
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
$ T" q4 Z4 d# d- _) @$ n9 c 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
8 P/ l: [2 A- J6 }" D 英超主队& _3 S9 j% A2 _
胜:13场 48%
9 X0 z! u S! z, A0 M* k" j9 Y 平:5场 17%4 j7 r9 J6 g& X1 ~1 x y! ^/ D& o
负:9场 35%8 x9 x% F: a' M# I6 ~9 H
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。/ H' M) A3 L( u @
1 v* h; d9 I+ b4 \5 `9 a
一、初盘阶段
' Z; `$ J: G2 V# @ 具体到水位如下:
5 H# J# H: f; m R" B# \ 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
+ G* @ F9 c( x) w2 a 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
3 v, }# C9 J% `! h3 Z0 F 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
$ P3 O9 U2 ]2 u8 v& R: B) {7 s * ]7 [. p9 @6 t& \2 m
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
; I7 }0 l( S* |& K3 Q4 @ 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
+ z% }7 a. N8 T" F5 x9 I 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。3 L! y$ I* l6 I% @, W1 ]
9 o% X' w! b" K
二、临场阶段" V# H9 e9 e L! n
6 T0 @# `2 b; H 具体到变盘和水位如下:
J B6 j- c$ g& c 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负) X3 q& k& h! I: T |1 s9 s% o1 {& w
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负9 Z" z) E% F, ]3 g8 G
7 e/ X% M' k5 m
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。" J; ]# B+ f# i
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:3 B F( |+ e! l, g1 `* k
1 V& }& E, t6 e( q5 I; X: F 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
" n4 \' P/ S# G" Z! f% ?8 z+ v 初盘:0.82平手1.04
q: n' y9 n+ `) A 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
, i; l) i3 y, u3 J/ T3 o, ` 4 s# C" W0 ?# l+ E. e# O
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆& H! `6 Y: @. `6 t
初盘:0.76平手1.101 m8 |1 E/ A# X0 v
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
: H# L$ \# i& m : M0 R& _5 ?+ Z. i
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技& R3 \" Y3 x8 d! V+ H
初盘:0.82平手1.04( T+ e9 d& o: y, W# |0 r* L
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
/ }+ t, z# q; V# R% B ; U$ x. H( G P: N
伯恩利2-1西汉姆3 z/ L$ q" T/ P E; W w
初盘:0.88平手0.98
t4 O3 D3 H# p, \' Q3 M 终盘:1.12平/半0.74" [$ l3 n$ A$ X% }) m/ p5 L* b9 z
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。' p- g: O% Y7 U. S# p: f# Y
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。) T" Q* ]$ ]3 e6 k
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
0 s; r2 D% q1 A# K5 ~
+ N3 \! O% C5 m% Q& k 三、球队表现
- z# S4 w% a! T J: R0 a: Z6 \" X
) x1 }9 Z4 P; Z0 B3 q 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
5 N j/ V7 B8 c0 F# I C' W . G! P0 e) B ~& U. I3 `0 q I
四、投注要点6 |7 G# I# V1 }7 D
要点1:平手中水、主多不败
' n! Y4 C I4 @! R: y 要点2:平手降盘、走两头
" D# e# s1 E% ]' |) J4 ] 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
, Y; ^- b1 I9 l: y" M4 L 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大: T. }' ?. P/ d9 k
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任( [8 E* z) j6 X# h8 U: p
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
1 E9 ?% ~4 o2 n" E! |, n 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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