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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
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平手中水,主队有利
2 E6 A: ?: {% S: e' B0 v8 ?+ W6 v5 E 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。! h/ K, U! v' O- t9 h
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
7 U" y2 |- R$ h$ O 英超主队
6 A8 ?% `# X) I; G U+ L 胜:13场 48%( |- B" B& |5 f+ G0 V4 t
平:5场 17%/ z [# _& ?) L& I* C4 N5 C# w
负:9场 35%
7 p( ?% l/ p* k8 L5 I 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。/ }1 K: F8 s% x& I( u1 ]: ] E
. x* j0 P) ?) H! Q! t
一、初盘阶段" x$ W: U4 M. m$ N9 ?' Y6 _! B
具体到水位如下:; H$ _. G2 V( V: {( q% M
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
" Q7 y+ d9 X9 X7 _/ ]% N. z 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
$ q* s& O$ @( Z; T1 @& F+ ~% e 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
1 n* Q, _% p/ E2 \3 ?, s : L |2 g5 H8 r+ w2 H; A
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。; b* n* c- ]" ~6 b: h
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
7 G" W7 f7 F8 P, Q 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。! P$ B8 q( Q9 J; m% d
0 {" N4 N0 ~& i7 [ 二、临场阶段
" T( |3 c' U z, t+ T$ R
t1 }0 I* X' g: ?. Y/ P 具体到变盘和水位如下:- a5 B6 w/ O$ l: ~4 s# i3 S
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负* _- |% j; d2 a d' b( ~. ^
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负0 O# i# W/ E) t6 N
& K0 j- _! [' K9 o" H) J. L
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。7 B9 ?" a _4 A
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
8 p+ Z' o0 P0 j* \& z
' t3 q8 [( @7 V) v; _9 s3 J$ J 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿$ t+ u7 l, u2 B; A C- {
初盘:0.82平手1.04- ]( U; T v0 A; V0 Y! y
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
* H6 z2 a: Z# |1 Y# I4 ^
8 H7 I4 V. G! M5 k) P 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆; V8 }3 K0 G a1 Z f+ u
初盘:0.76平手1.10
) U2 t+ ?: ]7 g& O 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
N' A3 b- N. `- {8 N; Y1 d0 |' Y
, }* k- A( _; k: u7 Y 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技: e+ d' r6 x' ~* x: ^$ r
初盘:0.82平手1.04
7 O% C; l" \* J4 d 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
! M% K, X2 R0 ~: V
' y6 U( ?' D9 q9 L 伯恩利2-1西汉姆
- {6 G1 e+ m& u 初盘:0.88平手0.98
* U: B& U4 b& X3 [4 S: j. ? 终盘:1.12平/半0.74/ ^& T" `+ j% h: R E
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。2 z% p; \6 s9 W
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
! Z' C2 M, _' y$ x 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
7 O! s, \$ F8 E T 1 e9 K5 V. P& a, |$ @% E# u* ~' q
三、球队表现
8 U' s. f' m4 ?0 s $ A- }" N$ ?6 i7 b- q& w" {# t* v
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
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四、投注要点7 w) ]( G% V' L" u- Y
要点1:平手中水、主多不败+ x) m- [+ D" L W
要点2:平手降盘、走两头 W+ y: c+ L* }5 h
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
6 u4 h. `% Y' _3 ^, } 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大 ?$ s P6 i9 h
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
) `8 W5 Y @6 j6 s* G' E K Y 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
( w6 Y8 N& J& H. ^: Z+ i$ \ 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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