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m9 K1 x7 B, H8 V2 [$ o加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
' _$ O8 G: r1 v5 G! A/ TDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，/ R5 K0 M7 c' _2 Z" \* Y
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。% k! N/ g9 M& B+ l' A# P3 D
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0% X1 V0 R6 q& S, V
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。: ?5 f/ a$ r: W: |6 g
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
9 J Z" ]0 z3 n5 o* r7 W _2024年4月第四次减半0 A5 ]; a4 W# G$ t8 w3 u
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
. a8 c( W6 b" ~# @4 F; o5 }5 c$ C& L可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
$ q7 @1 @) {' h! M& L: z针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
( ]& J( F6 b* z. ?二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务8 l& t% |# k ~) J5 ]
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。9 s8 d& f& j* q" K/ @! J" W1 C
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠 G5 W+ }! Y) b: i. X
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。 ]; Q# n6 ]. o# n1 `9 }5 M
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁1 r& Z* }7 Q" }! |9 q
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
, }6 a9 o( S! f金融(TradFi)产品。1 ^1 k5 W9 \1 ` G$ {, k
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
$ m& ?) V( P9 F8 u3 M6 b) [5 A1 t链桥」的项目。6 h+ d! [4 K. @4 l7 \% U6 L# G6 ]. b
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉6 V" {$ V) m! H1 q X
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
' {" w$ | I' t! c" T1 K等。
( X, _* X2 [1 c4 U) q7 X# fPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
0 r# x1 B, A5 S: @( X/ L在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。7 {$ l1 `# q2 {# H
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
$ |4 Y+ x) P0 D1 Y1 t; P: p; [6 EPantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
9 v2 O* z" D0 i: |- d数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。$ _: L6 S0 {2 X
Pantera点名了几个项目：+ j7 n! `' E$ D; q A! ^
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图- J1 `& d8 y8 }+ p
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
: `; n* Q" q6 A0 U/ o/ y( @$ GModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品4 O0 W! V/ X: i9 Y
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划5 E7 A& e* m$ B0 N' W
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游+ t5 I+ v+ J1 ~) b/ Q' @; b" z
六、小型公链需专注特定应用
% W* i6 P1 G- h! C" \4 c) q3 ePantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚# j. ^ [4 l8 M: z; }8 a
至能直接与L2竞争。
, _# R1 ^) p6 o% `5 ~3 N1 G也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
) }& r, R# j \5 TPantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地8 q0 u3 Q: x" V' R% M/ j
成为「应用链」。8 S$ S t3 C0 P: h( M% V, r
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
. \; e0 l( e& p$ x3 E7 r" u1 b2 I
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