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* A8 n% E2 f! ~加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
; Q s4 P( p( j; hDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
" H: f6 C- k- @6 n衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。5 x# p* d2 z4 x* t0 P m
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0) t$ }$ |/ C5 R1 K+ W
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。: X# u1 _9 X0 _, j) {! c( q7 ]
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：* U0 t8 m9 p. ]$ @
2024年4月第四次减半
5 ]7 G; R e5 {9 m1 J机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
* x& o/ W: _. `& }5 `* [9 ]3 L可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock). T7 i1 J- N8 e
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。* L5 ~ g) C ?* e3 X; } p$ m! Q% D# D
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务/ A0 t% s5 [) N( }
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。- l* D9 \2 D7 i8 R% k. `
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
, j7 `( U8 c; P9 S% [诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
$ w: U2 ^: Z; W4 T7 W三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
8 G8 O! Y* h" S& o除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统4 v0 V' g' W" ?3 h8 ?9 M
金融(TradFi)产品。. ~; _% \) f' f6 b# J: F" o" x
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨7 p3 n- k/ n1 O& T/ c0 X" e
链桥」的项目。
7 T$ \4 g& I; M0 z* A9 Z' z四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
; `% f' k; p. ?) {5 n模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
, C+ h7 p% q& j' {等。) X9 f( I3 {- @; z( D
Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用! `; M, h5 Z5 C& ~! S& _4 _# p
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。: ~. q0 k4 \9 c4 o
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
- \4 C b6 L. _2 [6 z+ oPantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
) c# {8 e" t: N% g2 ]; I* t数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
9 M# x! U+ p& O# a# G F6 l, ?Pantera点名了几个项目：
" \: u( v6 `7 h8 a& FHivemapper：去中心化的Google地图4 g0 n4 y: Y' n- d3 g' q
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
+ c( U! M0 q: p5 f/ d5 l8 nModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
) x8 o; k E2 X7 a: a+ W0 k4 {The Graph：链上知识图谱计划
3 {2 z2 }: ?6 g# E- LRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游
; ]1 B, v8 \$ F. e; N六、小型公链需专注特定应用
9 A6 b, j7 e8 b( z+ e( [Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
, B0 T( a6 I5 J( _! L$ S至能直接与L2竞争。; Y7 L9 s/ {$ D; E
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。$ P# ]6 J: B+ [ n& g7 Z& e
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地8 R3 r' t: H4 J1 k- g( j
成为「应用链」。( \% ], H( D2 ?
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。 p+ J& f7 D4 O( y; h
$ ~8 v9 [4 j3 W
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