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, \( a3 @. _1 F: o1 B! X加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为+ }6 b \* _3 |" H
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
" M; R% t* _- O. S衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。$ W, H# D: l8 U- h8 o
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
. @" i0 w& n# G9 zBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
* J+ n+ m4 f4 s% ^9 V% _5 |Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
/ d1 m/ c0 w' ]; P2024年4月第四次减半
9 M3 A$ E( m5 b" x0 w( j& c8 x机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF7 b. `7 \1 b Q& N
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)$ i3 {7 [5 l/ u5 b9 Y6 u) ^
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。( S" ^" z1 f0 r- L# V
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
D$ Y: [1 b9 X+ H; z `friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
* k4 x% {( p3 v# n6 M# V* MPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠4 g% y, J: g- j, ]& S- H! _" `
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
v! |& f" Z0 l1 `三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁, ?: h* `8 |# N( j! I) g, h" {6 t
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统# K) z4 x" P' J$ z) ?+ {9 i
金融(TradFi)产品。
* ^9 } a% `9 M% x2 F3 K如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨% E) c& y4 X: c# p* E
链桥」的项目。
9 Y: k: m4 T. |" D1 }5 a+ E" F9 z四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉4 Q7 |" N# A0 y5 l/ _
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
6 b) z' v w/ L+ D7 [等。2 l2 W' a7 r# C& ?
Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
" u s, y; D& Y0 L4 m# @在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
1 f& y3 ]; O. P五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
( b) H/ U, k- s1 IPantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
. H) z o# f) X, s& Y7 ?* W数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
: g& F) c, g3 b" @, Z$ BPantera点名了几个项目：; X; S3 H: O K; N Z% z/ X, k9 G
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图+ ?" @( l8 D( _7 @
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
4 D" L% V6 _3 ^4 R' ~* f/ sModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品; G& P8 V0 N. ?1 h! \# h
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划" F. |# R! s; {6 N6 H
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游
- X/ n0 S* G+ B: X六、小型公链需专注特定应用
" {3 C' E) u% P: U. y+ J& o" APantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
/ L# @/ [. s5 `3 W" @* S5 |% D' h至能直接与L2竞争。
- e0 I4 ^* f3 P8 Q4 i; G7 I1 {0 h也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。/ J! f+ G! N) f9 R0 y7 q
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地/ e3 g6 Y/ E4 }- T2 ?% \3 u
成为「应用链」。- k8 V' Z. ~& b$ B* y
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
" g8 d% B' C. D- {7 V6 e) U( O( x/ e4 z1 _) K, n4 ]! j
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