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[lastpost] => 2811836 以太坊也是牛逼的站上了2100美元了啊 1772913364 叫我十三
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人 O& T4 ] Z1 X( n
8 [% w. s& K" |9 B* j认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，2 u5 i, i; [# B. \, V! w* F* m
+ S1 N; l# `: v/ e9 @而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富% @, F9 E/ [( E; @2 d
' \) r1 ^; _1 {
的千禧一代。
9 Z; `2 c$ {0 D从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB
% W6 H6 H, `4 d+ s# T. b
7 w" Y* q- P D& j, E2 W- X的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“' _1 T9 G% @6 `* N
; K/ `- W9 Q/ e+ v 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加 [) j$ k+ A1 h
& X$ k4 N$ {' N9 C9 t) ?0 X x
密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据
& J3 Z2 }) `9 J; w/ S5 j+ a3 T& h2 p5 Q
《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成4 M: H3 L2 P- U0 j& m
$ f: I- d$ b) \. b. M% \5 x
的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
8 ?* J$ D5 X2 i, y
! v7 X7 t( f9 u报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
* g% f B) n+ v- X" H! F
# U" J( Q# p+ l; b* o10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
- W: ~ [1 @9 N# L$ e: x3 {
! R! n1 [* w3 a _+ d6 d( X5 s" g) b! ]ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
3 T# T, S9 }3 w M# a$ z6 J- z1 _' p' `* o& M9 u/ Q
据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
) n' R: S, |* ?: j" O& }
$ }( k' {. y6 a' u) y息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
( C- B# f" [+ ?) y8 G8 P+ |. p& b
与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密/ e; G+ Q7 M* {3 l6 J5 x" l
3 Y# ^, y- ?2 n0 J: C0 M/ f- W
世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富, s4 |7 L! p) C$ o, k& D$ u/ |6 c3 c
8 W, j3 h1 I) A
传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
% i3 v6 v9 J- S4 j& B, ?9 `; h8 A) X6 @) Q% e1 k/ @- c+ L l4 Y7 {
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
% k" {; _2 Y. Y$ U
5 X) ?6 u4 O1 h) \" Q2 m代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
3 l- g0 n5 j# s2 a& N2 [/ R, _: r$ Z5 f" H) ?5 ]% _
本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体+ r+ D4 H4 Q, k( q' C8 b7 s% C8 Y: }
2 L: G* H/ y: C* ~" a& Z
系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货
5 B3 h4 w% ]) G, X5 `: x5 ]6 P, ^3 q" E5 x/ F, {3 F
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致% e0 E/ _9 G7 m5 R3 f& F" o
. _5 M4 {4 U7 G5 I, a$ C& H3 i
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
( c) D0 c% U9 O: H. Y5 X+ h! D# G1 Q, ?, ~/ Q s! F5 [
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。8 f [$ U& ~* b: g8 y
; @5 k# J/ V( ?# i3 I. p0 g& q/ n1 f) j
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