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[打法交流]
德州扑克发到特定起手牌的概率是多少?怎么计算?(转载)
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拥有一定的数学基础知识,特别是概率论,对于打好德州扑克是非常有用的,我们将告诉你翻牌前发到特定起手牌的概率。
( P U' J; }5 z( X起手牌的概率
0 }! t. M- W7 |每个玩家在牌局开始时将会拿到两张起手底牌,而一副扑克牌有52张牌(去掉大小王),因此,玩家拿到的第一张牌是52张牌中的一张,而第二张牌是剩下的51张牌中的一张。因此,德州扑克中总共有52 x 51 / 2 = 1326种可能的底牌组合。
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因为不同花色的同点数牌(如A♥和A♠)牌力是相等的,因此德州扑克总共有169种起手牌:13种口袋对子(每个口袋对子有6种组合)、78种同花牌(每种同花牌有4种组合)和78种非同花牌(每种非同花牌有12种组合)。我们现在来检查一下:13 x 6 + 78 x 4 + 78 x 12 = 78 + 312 + 936 = 1326。正确无误!
, S% [, ^9 g* H% S我们可以用排列组合公式确定发到一个口袋对子的概率为:13 x C(4,2) / 1326 = 13 x 6 /1326 = 78 / 1326 = 0.0588 = 5.88%; Y/ a3 m. s6 Y7 `$ g2 f7 D
AA,KK,TT,22等某个具体的对子:具体起手对的概率都是一个样,都为0.45%,大概就是每221把牌局才能拿一把,按照每把牌局耗时2.5分钟(1小时打24把牌)的标准,概率上的结论就是一位玩家在九个小时才能抓到一把AA。我们经常听到朋友说一个多小时抓了3把AA,几把KK的情况,所以这样的运气绝对是逆天了!2 E: \' ]. n% N- ~& w
这里C(4,2)是我们发到由四种花色组成的一对牌的所有方式,以KK为例,KK可能有6种发出方式:K♠ K♦,K♠ K♣,K♠ K♥,K♦ K♣,K♦ K♥和K♣ K♥。
2 D; O# q) x/ [" H2 ?同样,我们可以确定翻前发到同花牌的概率为:78 x C(4,1) / 1326 = 78 x 4 / 1326 = 0.2353 = 23.53%。任意连张(如89、34、TJ):概率为15.7%,也就是每6.4把会抓一把,1个小时能抓3.75把。
9 F8 }8 W/ H4 H- v/ o* d6 [同花连张(如8♠9♠、3♦4♦), C& l7 w- [+ ]
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概率为15.7%/4=3.9%,也就是25把牌局出一次,1个多小时才能抓1把,很多朋友偏爱同花连张,这样看来,一个小时才能抓一把的牌,还有什么不上的道理。! v( m" L( _/ k
l( X9 I' T c, n) c6 x花牌组合(高牌组合):TJ,TQ,TK,TA,JQ,JK, JA,QK,QA,KA" N+ y7 u. h! H/ C/ y8 R7 T
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很多玩家对于起手牌有非常高的上牌要求,以上十类牌型在他们的要求中。1.12%*10=12.1%,也就是8把就能上1把,按照1小时打24把牌的标准,这类玩家一小时大概能上3手牌。
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翻牌前发到(非对子)非同花牌的概率为:78 x C(4,1) x C(3,1) / 1326 = 936 / 1326 = 0.7059 = 70.59%。最后,为了让大家更清楚更直观的知道一些常见起手牌的概率,我们制作了如下的表格:
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