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[虚拟币交流]
比特币减半后若币价低于3万美元 大量矿企将巨额亏损(转载)
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比特币区块奖励每四年减半一直被市场认为是牛市启动的催化剂,许多人认为跟着这个) G/ h8 y, w& A2 `& y0 G. i
叙事投资大盘是稳健的,但对于比特币矿工来说,挖矿的电力、设备成本和区块奖励之间的权衡就更为复杂。) e! }+ {4 M5 m; A: H! q' h. H
比特币减半,矿企成本将翻倍
! I3 q6 A& n, z; O& M3 T4 h H0 ]8 v目前,每个区块的奖励是6.25个BTC(价值约170,000美元),而到2024年4月,这个奖励将对折减少到3.125个
D. {) @( V' j7 X/ Q2 U3 mBTC(价值约85,000美元)。" {0 }% K" Y! d2 Y3 t. H! z% @, [
Blocksbridge挖矿咨询公司的研究主管Wolfie Zhao表示,目前上市的矿企每挖掘一个比特币的成本为10,000-
+ N" l" B% ]/ d* m0 J15,000美元。一旦减半发生,这些成本将翻倍,使得矿工的收支平衡点达到20,000-30,000美元。& j9 G, _* q: Z0 _) T, K) F
根据Zhao整理第一季的数据,Stronghold Digital Mining(SDIG)、Cipher Mining(CIFR)和Riot
/ L3 I/ }$ {. L8 H. k8 \Platforms(RIOT)的生产成本最低,Stronghold每个比特币的成本为8,200美元,Cipher为8,600美元,Riot为1 D1 g, P- g% h9 G
10,400美元。% t+ w5 O! x; S9 M9 L
假设减半后比特币价格没有明显的上升,未来只有成本最低的矿工才能存活下去,其他矿企无可避免的面临到越8 ^8 t( O" w' b1 k
挖越亏的地步。TeraWulf(WULF)的营运战略长Kerri Langlais表示:在减半之后,能源成本和设备效率将决定谁 m/ C' S7 I$ N1 X2 L
是赢家和输家。' r6 k# R' V& g; I( t
比特币挖矿成本是贵金属两倍( z/ L3 `8 F1 c9 p
挖矿服务提供商Luxor Technologies的分析师Jaran Mellerud认为现在这个时机点对于矿企来说是充满不确定性
+ ~. E1 D1 b8 ^/ [. q6 G$ A# j. A的,需要衡量是否要扩增新设备,而相对于其他行业,挖矿业需要很高的资本成本,是贵金属行业的两倍,判断
8 s' @/ S! m5 \# e( @8 H错误将付出更大的代价。% e" ~ r# }1 Q: d5 ]" e
即便面临挖矿难度和算力不断创历史新高,且相对于2022年秋季比特币价格降至约15,000美元的低点时,矿企的
! N+ t O% C2 L* u0 i情况已经有所改善,但是现在的算力和难度增高是反应先前的投资,是否要持续投入又是对于下一阶段的预测。
2 Z& Y# A; `. O$ ^7 O' U/ J6 i比特币价格的上涨或下调还有能源成本都关系到矿企的盈利能力,决定他们在减半后决定是否需要运营下去。" ?! K9 F" h: Y( _
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