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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。 / {+ @ @7 u# U# Z5 K5 y9 q
以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因. % l1 d/ O- W& j0 [8 j n" p9 W
此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。 2 c# D6 J( G5 K( o
以太坊基金集体亏损
+ E3 j% S) ~7 K2 @5 W/ a" y, Q# G根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。 2 Y( B1 n5 [7 g3 q
与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。 9 v0 n8 e S9 e+ E5 l4 ~' l; ~9 w5 _
与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。
) _. |0 G; {2 x& J. z8 F
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编辑切换为居中
+ r( f) F9 N) Q. G; Z# g流入/流出加密资金(按资产)
9 j5 s3 s7 d1 V- u5 ^这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。 ! @6 [3 m+ H$ Y$ I
以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。
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编辑切换为居中
$ r: [1 C Z5 J+ ?6月5日的TVL以太坊 % i* O- U1 p. u- P$ V. S8 M% |
但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。
: W6 G2 V+ H- b6 M- w5 U宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。 2 ]/ F) E, I: a' G$ s! v" u
男性讲述金融时报:
" Z- Y; ^& |2 k, ^" ?: ]2 l7 R# q“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
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呆滞的技术面
* u2 U) Z1 H) Z+ L8 e2 B/ P自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。
$ ~- J' e8 y9 z' U, V5 v具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。
4 \4 @! u8 u+ j9 x# s根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。
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4 a4 E6 a% `# ^, N编辑切换为居中 / l4 y4 z4 ]6 B+ P+ J( c: h
ETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置
% s. m3 p; h5 d& o如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。
9 v! Q! F; @( X9 v: r交易所的ETH储备正在增加 - G( Y4 _6 L9 i" Z7 `
CryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出.
/ Q$ d: x7 ?( v; {自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。 2 G: A6 f8 z4 v2 c# S: \" W2 o
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以太坊外汇储备
" P$ A. Z' n1 [通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。
8 [2 d k, {* x9 R来源：金色财经 |
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