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[lastpost] => 2796758 比特币：为什么机构而非散户将决定比特币的下一步走势（转） 1768309639 22301
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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。
- Y* {' b s+ g. Y2 E) O* V以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因.
2 _9 {: K9 c9 Y4 T6 B4 ~此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。
: ]! m! Y; u+ A [. L' d以太坊基金集体亏损
: p! p+ N/ M' t* H+ C' W/ F. H根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。 2 ^- X" q- t9 [" R% H
与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。 & _2 D# V% j: O4 F( C
与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。
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# X% A5 A& \% p3 U7 j4 N! }0 \编辑切换为居中 # {" |1 I& u$ W6 V
流入/流出加密资金(按资产)
# r: `+ X$ L6 m这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。
# q4 k/ q0 O3 Z以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。 1 F2 @* o# G. s' f; N0 p* q5 D# q: h
! @+ i; Y) g6 I* I5 Y编辑切换为居中 ) K# u( M4 y' I9 C
6月5日的TVL以太坊 , [( e% s6 K% g$ w5 a- \! i
但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。
7 L' o+ d2 s) b2 o+ T6 y/ M( a2 H宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。
6 f, R+ q) l5 ?男性讲述金融时报:
, i6 Y# @: C9 m* |; ]% A3 i) R“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
4 t, i2 d R' o# r3 {$ X; {
呆滞的技术面 8 A) L( N# w0 m) t8 B. X% `/ M
自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。
) T. R0 r( k* @7 r) Z/ N7 F! D具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。
9 b% O7 C7 `2 E# T1 u根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。 ) d* m9 e# q. u; S2 n0 C
! G3 d" V4 s: R3 X& _0 F( j# ]8 H编辑切换为居中
# q& `! H' `/ S: b) q/ H$ cETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置 2 L6 {: g. k1 N+ U0 l' w! `) i! _
如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。 * L* N2 V( k+ R2 Q
交易所的ETH储备正在增加
5 _+ e2 I8 Q* v. z) ^9 |CryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出. , e7 `' X' I a. R
自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。 0 O2 A8 \' \4 d1 T; Z" H- A3 ]
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编辑切换为居中 # y" Q* f9 b" Z7 t$ k) { ?" j
以太坊外汇储备
, T4 P- d2 \* @- |* q通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。
( S, I7 K. H6 y/ l9 ]; V来源：金色财经 |
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