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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。
4 j$ x: x! W0 I9 r2 K' n1 C以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因. : K. O* x2 B. \4 V" H. g4 y0 E
此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。
* ?' l' i. ]' g W% o: V, x以太坊基金集体亏损
( F) O- d/ ? _# K根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。 * K( d/ C! X9 d8 M3 D
与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。 7 g+ u- w' R. t+ J3 B
与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。 o* L; E6 s" {7 p
/ s! `4 H5 Y' \+ b
编辑切换为居中 1 r( _2 G6 {: h' m
流入/流出加密资金(按资产) / E2 T5 \) r2 C5 z1 @
这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。 1 r) P, ]( Q- V
以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。 , y" F" S* T! ^" I4 H: ~( N
' f7 U& ^4 c% q7 X) R% `9 ~* n- z编辑切换为居中 . Y' z* |/ l |, N+ P* t9 i9 U5 c
6月5日的TVL以太坊
/ Z/ J. q; ~9 Y0 t) ?0 f+ g9 U但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。 ! V9 @+ x" h) u. t% p' V
宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。
6 a6 Z1 y5 p* g- v* i男性讲述金融时报: 8 j& x7 x5 ~9 D- u; p$ r
“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
0 W* Y2 W9 W. x/ Y: ?3 |呆滞的技术面
2 c& Z0 z/ Y& T7 O自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。
4 D" v# d3 R8 s5 f N' G l7 ]具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。
" g5 n" A9 i/ i( |3 L9 t1 d4 [1 X( a: K根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。
% r+ E' d- D% Q0 |# W- Y
9 n( D* q3 b% w8 `' G' F b编辑切换为居中 % H- i) h, e+ ^
ETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置 & m% Q6 K$ ?. z7 n5 N; y! m! @
如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。
+ V) J' n$ ?9 m4 {( t1 F& J& y交易所的ETH储备正在增加
3 V4 H5 A0 ]0 c; \+ zCryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出.
- E. f" A6 N7 K7 B自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。 1 W- @& g, Z1 g6 H) H3 a' d* q
/ @- i! ? T l+ ?% r6 Q编辑切换为居中
' h* c! g; n/ h2 Q0 D以太坊外汇储备
; x' ?; C& M8 u( I6 l2 y$ F* _通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。 $ P! R: N- S9 p' j0 Q7 B" f
来源：金色财经 |
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