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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 # x0 Z$ }9 Z/ |' n8 @
余勋也不例外、
% s9 n8 y9 O& n7 l其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
3 o- D; D' [; w, `% Y是保经济的重要决策！
. M% C6 i$ B& n/ o& x. \, i. g这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 3 `* e) U* C$ H' K
低点26700-32400、 + F0 A* h* \8 n3 ]; R, g i/ \
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
9 x0 A$ u) ^2 |6 b& ~) B' X但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
8 l$ E3 f/ A) C大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
& |! B0 V u1 t9 _' s/ R" Z, h! p涨幅就已回撤过半！
4 [8 \5 N6 P, u5 t9 ^! l7 |. g所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
9 i0 L' p/ i4 z( F) B" E不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 1 t1 P, T% B1 B1 _4 J3 E8 ~
其次、 * t' o+ s! s! n$ S/ [" h
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 ( z! F9 A& }8 x2 Z" n/ E
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
. c; [, B/ O4 r. b( \& p, W等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 N2 y/ [9 Y. f3 U% \" Y6 ?8 S2 y
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
, { i$ ^4 j6 o3 J r8 f但回到币圈、 0 J0 @9 Z/ n% T: @) S* A1 D
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
3 e7 f% ^3 `2 n3 p$ m6 P在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
2 i$ {5 ?8 A$ o4 b( {& O. u c1 e/ p而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
& H( ]- m' C% U4 D4 N! o个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
! V0 S" {2 c, y3 B/ ?) c缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 ; I7 N. Y1 j& ^
对当前的底部、影响有限。 ( t# ?$ a; H2 e- O0 W8 t0 D
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
% g) a. J- a C7 Q# E) J+ h所以27000、即是
3 @+ [9 x4 H* r- Q; J去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
& m1 B5 Z0 H$ V; t同时还是去年放水初期低点、
7 c9 V- X# _; t( B$ ?也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
9 f9 L! _3 ^: n: D8 H由此得出的结论是、 ; Z: B3 j- e7 T% ?; L: J
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 ; x2 k5 j2 {8 S- o( b$ U& E$ c
点位不会出现太大偏离。
2 X/ d; D O% c) t; d综合以上、
% b: @- c+ c+ `% \# j! E美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 , ~4 C9 U W& ~6 J
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
' u4 Y* k; ~( _3 E那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
3 n. ^3 O' A- C6 L$ t, D抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
/ p8 b& \( x. [1 n那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
5 W) |/ ]/ |) `, S2 K# A即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 ; ^# \3 b: [1 l% @: ^. l
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
0 L0 y1 s, c0 j& L* N1 p: S2 v. I夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
( T. d$ N4 ?2 a* @2 O( i6 u大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 2 ~- [" `2 ?7 ] H
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 ) Z; N5 t" Q, R4 g; R6 ~0 f9 e7 @
高空需至31700-32000间布局、
$ e+ H9 B. Q+ ]反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 3 W+ ^9 ~6 I! B* O/ j$ Q1 g' k
得不偿失。
+ w# N: t3 G( g. z$ {% |4 A来源：金色财经 |
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