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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 ) Y$ P" W! l- v( c! ~& L; k3 _
余勋也不例外、
( }) ?, r: @4 T8 j+ T4 c/ A其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
4 E- [' g8 n$ M, ?1 l W是保经济的重要决策！ 4 l7 w5 u% N- E( ~: e" ]
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
3 A: P5 J; |2 W% k8 x' { ~- ]低点26700-32400、
" G2 D* y1 }& i7 U/ p+ H反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
G2 U6 d. ?8 p9 B! u但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
4 T9 A) u" w6 _( v大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 2 T5 i8 V% Y- o) e1 z. T) A
涨幅就已回撤过半！ # V) l2 m! t7 M' [0 _
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 4 [2 |% v, `% [" {% B6 f
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 `5 G2 C7 O3 N1 i0 G8 }% V' M
其次、 % V: @4 R$ K7 X* w
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
3 x8 b( C) |( B: R每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 7 @2 s( h4 u- J' \
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
3 Y& y$ f* Q( g4 j; b) B3 f美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
- k# ~& f9 C( u. w$ f但回到币圈、
$ w- P! T% c3 _" A2 X8 }6 U1 j去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 / k) t+ C! l( X/ w A4 @
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 * ]: Y9 ~. G8 ^& [; p
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 7 V! {% n7 u; Q; u1 Z0 w* Z
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
% J( g6 P! w! \6 h0 P/ ~缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 : S& L# Z. @4 \* ^$ Y* k% [
对当前的底部、影响有限。
+ ?5 D+ }" [! Q3 ^, t6 ~. c最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 8 K$ ], j' J9 o% }
所以27000、即是
* r$ N5 ?1 T: Q8 E去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） ' t( j0 c& z) r* Z9 s
同时还是去年放水初期低点、 7 Z, v( L5 \- u+ |
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
! M* N7 K- a. M5 Z由此得出的结论是、
/ b' i9 O& q0 [8 b/ r加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 , ~5 k1 f/ j6 a2 \5 Q m
点位不会出现太大偏离。
- [ l0 B% v3 Q# b% Y综合以上、
0 G+ t4 J3 C7 [1 S w, M |美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 * [, Z. z4 G. o2 }$ r. U7 h7 q
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 % c9 h; A1 O, V2 {3 a9 s
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 - ~/ w. F! R. `4 N4 E6 I$ X: ]
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
) W( F8 X+ F! p. k9 ^4 t6 v) E7 v那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
) V4 `$ \/ j1 ]即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
6 n4 i) N4 M* F美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 % {: p% }7 w a& q! K2 k
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 " f9 {# [% {* s, g6 B- v( t: j4 l
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 9 r: U+ Z& `: c
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 ) a/ }3 U7 [2 H j0 M, w) b: @
高空需至31700-32000间布局、 7 W2 G9 @' K6 u4 R0 v0 W
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
+ }* h5 g$ N' |得不偿失。
$ L0 {0 e& i( S( I9 x# S; e来源：金色财经 |
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