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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 & N+ \% D; ]) D# ?
余勋也不例外、 : T- q. h6 f; G% s
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 - i9 S" e. A; }7 I- D
是保经济的重要决策！ $ W. d- s U2 ?: P* f
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
8 M9 c0 O8 V/ ?; N低点26700-32400、
) Z9 I6 p. w, ~' n1 r反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 1 G- N8 |6 R: ^, k: Y, [
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
; Y: D* i+ c# P" O2 k6 v5 ?% a& ?大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 7 Z6 h" g# u3 ?
涨幅就已回撤过半！ ( Q" w \& Y! q( V. b
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
% A2 Z, N2 _; G) ^不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
# h7 D* y! J2 m其次、 ; J: t/ _ b. H/ z
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
! m, C8 F' K3 A1 Q每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 * B1 m8 s: F% _! ?+ V- d% I* f
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 5 L4 w/ u0 a }2 P6 ~ ^3 \
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 / F7 l8 u% a9 m; W2 ?( Y
但回到币圈、 2 t& E! V" Z8 T- ]/ ^" V1 W: @
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
& z: m# `- D: }! N5 i b- A9 o在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 6 \5 i5 U& ?6 u' }4 a
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 5 r4 c" [( |: B
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 " P% Z) {! i/ a
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
1 H4 J; \. G% q: f, H对当前的底部、影响有限。
1 `+ q* l4 N% T最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
}+ a; \/ h7 O3 o4 K" F+ [2 y所以27000、即是
; S. D* L/ n( h2 p" k% Q去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
) I- x% a- ?6 o2 s& c/ j同时还是去年放水初期低点、
/ k6 u& b# [ L5 b也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 - U; v3 c O0 w. g" L
由此得出的结论是、 : A5 ~# z8 z+ P7 R* }% z2 ~/ J
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 - U! ^- ^# F) U& r& [% D
点位不会出现太大偏离。
4 `( ^; B* x* v( V3 L& ]- E K综合以上、
) Y4 _0 f# h0 _: `3 C! \9 Q美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 6 P* ^9 e. h& \% k& Z; t
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
8 P2 N2 g9 W# U6 ]那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
W8 l" Z1 Q: X9 y# `" M抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 / e! }' o- S3 ]1 B
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
9 B( Z+ E0 J" W9 _. b" V% U! ^% R3 j即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 ) [0 Y$ f; J' o
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
: {8 _' H7 S6 ?$ n夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 ! Q5 d4 j6 H: n2 f; R" {: E& Q
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
& F! Y% W, p% P2 c) v逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 5 U6 R1 a" U- n/ I+ C- n
高空需至31700-32000间布局、 ( m2 r8 m6 q6 L0 H L0 D7 j
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
V1 a2 y/ z* I" e( P得不偿失。
; B4 ~$ k; C9 q8 k来源：金色财经 |
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