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[虚拟币交流]
分析师：比特币价格可能在2022年跌至1.4万美元，但现在“买入是最好的选择”
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研究称，比特币今年将面临“周期底部”，可能会从目前的水平下跌超过50%。! s5 J f3 W- r) J7 `1 |
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在6月1日的一篇推特帖子中，链上分析平台CryptoQuant的撰稿人Venturefounder预测，2022年是比特币“投降”的一年。 P: z' y% y* h0 t: ^
% q O6 h+ R) L9 ?6 d比特币现在拥有“有史以来最好的3年投资回报率”
. d# r" I. a4 S+ x1 rVenturefounder写道，根据比特币减半周期的历史模式，今年应该是当前四年周期中的熊市害群之马。/ _4 m" b% G$ W m
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就像2018年和它的熊市一样，BTC/USD应该会在2022年的某个时候找到自己的宏观底部，如果计算以前从历史高点的跌幅，这可能在14000美元到21000美元之间。' l5 v& Q/ O1 F7 C8 N
6 z; W" K: z% p" D; y( F“距离比特币下一次减半还有670天，与过去的周期相比，我们按时看到了比特币的表现，”一条推文解释道：
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“在接下来的670天里，BTC将在接下来的6个月里投降，并触及周期底部(14-21k美元)，然后在2023年的大部分时间里达到2.8 -40k美元，并在下一次减半之前再次达到~40k美元。”" ~, ?( I, n2 g
. e, z6 X0 F( z, n" a; I; [这样的预测虽然不是什么好消息，但也不是没有先例的。在2018年12月触及3100美元后，比特币在7个月后设法回到13800美元，然后再次逆转下行，在2020年3月的低点3600美元见底。* x7 k! g; u( h/ W' H9 h
( [& c" U3 s0 ~# d即使是2019年的最高价格也不足以打破2017年12月创下的历史最高纪录——20000美元。5 `& B% j u0 s* U; G
; ?% P! v( ?, EVenturefounder认为，这一水平可能再次成为现货价格图表的一个特征。尽管如此，那些愿意乘势投资的人(即便是现在)还是会站在历史正确的一边。# l: l7 f& C7 l/ r) F% q
0 {4 Z1 T8 s- O( D. c3 M) U“换句话说，从现在到未来6-12个月，购买比特币是最好的选择。这可能是有史以来最好的3年投资回报率，”他补充道：3 h2 W; a/ a& T; r- ?; |" k
}+ L/ \9 R6 F9 X/ j- e“我们可能没有在周期底部，但我们在BTC周期底部的范围内。这是你在把握市场周期时能做的最好的事情。”' B+ x- L; n, B
: J f2 b$ y& |! ?' k" N底部预测不断出现, j% f0 `! a; a8 }$ n
与此同时，其他人已经估计可能的底部范围在14000美元或附近。
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# T! L* o7 ]$ U" p2 I$ X, H这一价格将比目前的历史高点69000美元下跌约80%。. Z9 L0 a# a* b1 Z2 x1 y
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链上分析公司Glassnode的数据显示，目前31000美元左右的价格相对来说是一个较小的降幅。
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! M' w/ x7 L3 f4 N# Q/ nBTC/USD从历史高点回落 来源：Glassnode& B E4 c2 I* q
& g: i% M' G) c! d上月，同行分析师Rekt Capital估计，一旦BTC/USD跌破200周移动平均线，其潜在目标价为15500美元。
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卖家要将市场推低到如此之低可能会遇到困难。持有最多比特币的上市公司MicroStrategy承诺，只要比特币价格接近20000美元大关，它就买入。
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交易巨头BitMEX前首席执行官Arthur Hayes也证实，他对20000美元的比特币感兴趣。6 V e; V3 A, C5 t# I- n1 t+ R" W6 v
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