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大小球盘本质上就是与全场入球总数相关的盘口,计算它的依据就是进球数的概率。! O( i$ d" |3 I/ o- F0 P
我们先引入下列符号:) L$ a! F2 q8 `5 x, E( M# i
Pn(n=0;1;……;x)表示在一场比赛中可能出现的各个进球数的概率。
( y. _" {9 M: j6 m即:P0=全场进0球的概率;P1=全场进1球的概率;……。4 t9 v& g+ E2 r- V) @/ K, i
那么 ∑Pn=P0+P1+P2+……+Px=100%。
7 S G% Y, D9 h# i- vBo表示大球的投注总数,D表示投注大球的回报总数额,O(Over)表示大球的赔率。, L. w& p) T* g9 b1 \ `
Bu表示小球的投注总数,X表示投注小球的回报总数额,U(Under) 表示小球的赔率。7 M" A! D4 \ a; K
0 I! Q+ y/ w* g$ ~
在一场比赛中,我们以G表示大小球的盘口(G为任意数);K表示全场入球总数的结果。
) B" C, W% o9 @$ _* c在任意盘口G下,全场比赛会出现如下3个结果:) ]6 z8 h" ?- Y& `- {) [+ d
1:K>G 即出现我们通常所说的大球。
% `% {; t" v7 G. g( g, V2:K=G 即出现我们通常所说的走盘。+ |/ e# f- B/ P* I& F; B
3:K<G 即出现我们通常所说的小球。1 Q# Y3 ~6 l, g4 l9 Y
3 x" p" o5 ^' ?) K4 k) E- Y那么在此盘口下投注大球的回报总数额为:: H- M6 b2 t( o& s
D1:(K>G)={Bo* O 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。3 Y: j- t% m2 N/ P
D2:(K=G)={Bo 即走盘退回本金。! G+ J# ^5 h+ e3 A) E" P, n
D3:(K<G)={0 即输盘失去本金。
) M' y2 i; U# \1 B+ Y) a- e# O7 A! f' b2 ~- ^
同理在此盘口下投注小球的回报总数额为:
. m% \% ~2 _ j5 G& A6 _X1:(K>G)={0 即输盘失去本金。; E j5 `( J4 w R$ k8 X
X2:(K=G)={Bu 即走盘退回本金。
4 K+ Z9 X0 K1 D: DX3:(K<G)={Bu*U 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。
# c! _/ J" T2 {; b" E
]" a! g3 t& j# U _; Z/ W( r8 c下面分别描述大小球盘为2.5球;2.5/3球;3球;3/3.5球时的大小球盘赔率计算方法,其余盘口可以由此类推。! H! w7 L; q1 G& p
. y( R3 G& \( B; S7 {1:大小球盘为2.5球(G=2.5), ?3 R' M3 {# y6 a7 c. ~, D3 ^. j
/ E6 n0 h8 M+ S- j, I在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:& }4 k) v& O" Q; t7 P7 K; W
K=0 D0=0
8 a/ Q7 z" }# C6 t0 X+ xK=1 D1=0
* F5 C1 L/ S/ i" PK=2 D2=06 P( a `& C ^1 z/ Y r& }
K=3;4;....x D3+= {Bo* O
# r) W7 H1 y8 J9 K k; v6 ? T( ~' T, D. A! ~, Z$ O- j! W9 j/ U
投注大球的期望回报总数为:∑D=Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2)=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2)7 H; _4 _' j# m* z" n) u
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。, J& r, R" w9 B5 X
∑D=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=Bo
) x+ t2 v8 a+ ~+ @2 H O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=1% o4 l! R* D- q* W$ l& ?# s
在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=1/(1-P0-P1-P2). V" {5 @7 F. J4 j
或者表述为 O=1/∑Pn----------(这里n=3;4;……x)# G7 i2 `% H# k7 ~2 H5 V- D6 o
9 Z0 f2 Y( a4 K- B
在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:' y$ x2 [8 [' P
K=0 X0=Bu*U / V+ Z% I+ `7 c9 B# J5 r
K=1 X1=Bu*U - ?8 B, A0 p+ }+ J7 w" _
K=2 X2=Bu*U + o, k! p9 n2 d* C( c
K=3;4;....x X3+=0' I `0 X$ b8 O# c8 \+ z+ C6 Z
- u7 V/ j' n6 ~. T
投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U7 h( U/ \2 |9 \
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
! ^! W1 G* E6 W4 `) Y ∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U=Bu
* m9 @, ~+ f! f( m U*(P0+P1+P2)=13 o9 t/ O- y6 n" F- ?- U7 t' _# F
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=1/(P0+P1+P2)6 V3 Q3 l/ z3 E
- u2 j3 Q. I& m, {* D5 \7 I- b8 ]
2:大小球盘为3球(G=3)" J# t3 p8 B# j3 \
- E9 x: a1 r5 q) e2 {9 l
在大小球盘为3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:
. w* |5 x) ^* {5 T' Z# R* BK=0 D0=0
. o: m5 t. J- k8 h8 bK=1 D1=0 8 M1 u& @1 v6 [: z9 u0 N8 {
K=2 D2=0: e5 ]" {& T2 b2 w' B% p0 \
K=3; D3= Bo
, _( J& V$ l' |- b5 UK=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O
, k7 |) H7 J7 v$ H5 S& y; Q9 T4 m5 N6 U& X% F
投注大球的期望回报总数为:' @$ `6 `" J! u) D
∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)= P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)' n. y3 `+ [, f5 T3 @3 ?! \! x
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
6 P# u) c9 A+ g+ i$ g; _ ∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo
7 Y0 q. F( `% T- R8 U: S P3+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=16 e( d- ^, R) d. ?) V0 X( @
在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)5 c' }2 [9 E+ S! _3 i; M H
或者表述为 O=(1-P3)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x)
. y8 t4 ?! B$ r, m3 R V7 X9 S. ^" J d2 W* Y
在大小球盘为3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:
: f) u# ~" G a" u: o; O5 `* P" OK=0 X0=Bu*U
, A! h% d0 }, J q' s. oK=1 X1=Bu*U
2 j4 C! f+ i& d0 `5 H' J6 wK=2 X2=Bu*U , ^) D F; I) y! [5 f/ P, s
K=3 X3= Bu# p7 m( z$ G E9 E% G. u
J=4;5;....x X4+=0
# P D( z* }% a, A5 Z0 ?
8 g5 E1 m2 y/ @投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu: e$ T: L( `$ {2 v# R1 \8 Z" _2 w
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。$ r4 h# n7 Y/ B
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu =Bu
) f* ^2 l. g7 V) S9 V% l8 p U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3=1
# M9 Y& A d4 Z3 H 在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3)/(P0+P1+P2)
& n+ J4 k+ @! B: x' J
0 @ W& E) S# o1 }+ p$ d6 o3:大小球盘为2.5/3球(G=2.5/3)
$ h) M: x3 n$ g# b, _
. [7 n8 j# M7 d* R在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:
' a% W6 A- T+ u! e9 gK=0 D0=0
/ ?, l/ Z, m7 C; f; w9 JK=1 D1=0
/ d: ^1 h8 f$ x; s) z6 L7 T* \K=2 D2=0
k Q; f3 F3 K* D& G; ~4 s) aK=3; D3= Bo/2+ O*Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘赢盘)
. L5 ^7 K% n7 n( \/ E, P$ K. uK=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O % a- d+ s! W/ q2 G' d/ O& m8 I
8 |/ p; ?' V' Q f
投注大球的期望回报总数为:
, J8 b/ f# c. g) N ∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O*Bo/2+Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)
, h# b8 g3 q$ h' w- m = P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)% T. _( M6 f/ l; A
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。3 S, x' r' r9 u
∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo6 \" j( R8 _" ?
P3/2+ O* P3/2+O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1! {4 V+ J" r3 [. a
O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3+ P3/2)=1- P3/2% W; H" ?1 z8 k9 y& O+ O
在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3/2) P* v- a4 R; E
2 ]# m, I6 ~# A3 M; B) d2 W3 Y在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:% O9 y x$ S: z* ?
K=0 X0=Bu*U & F% j4 P7 M5 F; [3 w
K=1 X1=Bu*U
6 g. ~5 k6 }4 LK=2 X2=Bu*U
, N5 L, w/ {4 i4 N5 T' ]K=3 X3= Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘输盘)
8 g. R) l8 ^9 G8 `J=4;5;....x X4+=02 @$ C$ |! Z/ D5 G6 b
% B7 p V4 j& D% R投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2
8 H5 i8 ?, q% n( ^7 _# L+ ] D在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
8 `' h# e' R, ~7 E' ~ ∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2 =Bu. @# p4 k( f! W* W" f; k
U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3/2=1! e3 o; E' x6 ~- i. u0 y; n
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2)
9 x, s9 f" \/ H, M! E( S, q4 g. u0 y5 U5 o
4:大小球盘为3/3.5球(G=3/3.5)
. D, R" v! Q0 P8 l$ s/ _) [8 q4 b, ]
5 _3 o+ ?0 W9 W, V在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:
6 A" ^. h; }$ Q$ l( LK=0 D0=0 . q: D) L G3 b8 M0 i
K=1 D1=0
5 U; O' F8 F( SK=2 D2=0
, R; q+ e+ h2 H, n" u7 [$ a' Q- aK=3; D3= Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘输盘)8 p. \" v. J2 @7 ^, M
K=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O 0 |( p2 v, l# B* r9 s
7 \% G8 @9 e4 U2 p
投注大球的期望回报总数为:
* t2 D$ D7 @5 U4 V) s( p! r" m ∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)
2 w. Q: r, s# v% k1 | = P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
# y! ?0 H0 X2 S0 u" S2 G* z在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。5 z2 _0 B# B9 {* ~
∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo
+ K& h+ z! y5 n9 K' a+ B4 l P3/2+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1
3 u% h3 T, J, n8 c O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1- P3/2) }" p8 I& [& b: `9 _
在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
$ Y) f" ]7 E0 S3 u# J m 或者表述为 O=(1-P3/2)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x)3 u: d) J4 G: w* _8 n
0 c2 k2 o* H+ M; P! d, q在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:
2 R! H: R6 a0 Y/ R5 f- rK=0 X0=Bu*U . H. p, p# o# k; k3 e9 K6 y
K=1 X1=Bu*U ( M1 [/ W4 u8 l2 r6 B
K=2 X2=Bu*U
) {/ ^9 ^" w0 @. WK=3 X3= Bu/2+U* Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘赢盘)5 W+ x) d5 J, s) x6 Z
J=4;5;....x X4+=0* e6 H+ u- y+ e. N, s2 T9 t
4 y9 \, P/ ]$ _投注小球的期望回报总数为:- K& \7 s% x! ?( {0 {
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/29 H! a$ c/ ^0 I$ q0 z" Y$ [
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
0 k W1 f: D# m1 P" O% q ∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/2 =Bu
- u. u0 T+ C) L0 b' N+ L! a4 S0 K$ ^ U*(P0+P1+P2+ P3/2)+P3/2=13 `3 j" K# N( e4 F4 r# I* N' h6 k
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2+P3/2)- A0 Z5 [, @- ^
# Q" G2 ^5 u. d4 g! v
2 u5 l8 M2 @) h p" n5 o+ D一场足球比赛就是以主,客进球数最终是多少来体现其结果的.3 m6 Y+ ~$ v9 A7 k, V
大部分博项的赔率都可以通过进球概率这个基本数据实现互相转换!
; j! W5 D) b. C! U6 \3 g8 r! e% y" @) `) a% i
P0 P1 P2 P3 P41可以由统计函数生成,也可以由开盘赔率计算得出,比如用波胆赔率计算。(这种方法计算出的Pn值有一定的偏差) |
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