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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 1 b- Y$ v' K" m' w8 n5 m
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其实原文标题不是这样的
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这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!* j% n5 a; `2 x" b" K
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
- |2 h2 O. l7 x. }" v他希望能和上帝来场赌局。! {1 A/ w P- A. Z8 b- k0 y
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「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
9 k7 \9 d* k, [" Y# R9 z: y, F% | _1 K* m6 j* V
「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
+ g5 W8 q, o! N
: M* L' M/ ~4 x! F% x0 {* n「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 ; N- H5 i& D! _
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」2 W4 x2 t4 _' n- S2 G4 k: S
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上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
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# I8 T3 m3 N5 l+ H J! F接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，' w! T. l9 V' }7 z9 G
因此铜板较容易出现正面。( ^* }6 V' S! u/ E. s& i$ y7 T/ S
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
% E. _6 h, j3 o E7 X# ~" R; [因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
$ A1 u- u' f0 I3 ?$ v& i心想赢定了。6 l1 E( k8 C8 N# f1 P4 y' f8 y
8 H1 j" A% q6 g0 C0 q没想到开始不到半刻钟，
+ o" N0 s' ]+ O3 ^; N赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
. X+ [9 I O9 @- h0 E6 R3 K 3 M$ U8 h( V6 T1 a8 r% s- {/ C
赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，9 P) Y1 L0 g; B
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。' G! K+ t8 L: V# @. G
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赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
& a |( `0 j% j7 V; r他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 - V1 P }& I& m4 l, x+ a# ~' t
上帝回答道：
8 o7 E5 a8 G3 L! t「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」 e9 @, Z* @, B9 s
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
& l* I5 G$ F; {8 g8 j" z「而不是先发生在我身上。」4 O; N0 ]" B& J/ o' i% V/ j
- g$ }0 `* J; F 赌徒恍然大悟，3 X# t# w# _3 O, c7 f
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
7 g" d- n0 H+ ~# O4 [6 q. p. a8 K竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！+ u* F& j) H" l6 O
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」) K; ]7 E( m1 ~7 E
上帝说完便不见踪影。
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一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
+ V/ a* _. [ v% E- }+ S/ F7 c+ S若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，5 x& Y# h6 t" [5 n" ]
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
! H. K9 i$ C2 i# T! _* p对赌徒十分有利。
* p; H r* D; a8 M( V 1 i9 `4 H. w T" L2 C
但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
4 |! P U5 @ I- h1 ?" j9 u在还没掷到1000次之前，/ b ]& i7 P2 R9 D, V/ K6 O& c
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
6 x$ w* u0 Y; o5 {, ]5 m P3 J; I% Z0 Q# P+ |
赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
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/ @9 h# o# P" K6 U% S 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。% H7 U% B1 z6 J I% y8 x
' E3 w3 e+ Z0 r3 z/ C 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
" b3 s0 n" `% n4 O
* Y, s0 G; @4 k3 d+ _ 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
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