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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 : w2 C6 A$ M0 D' d# R
2 ^- @1 o8 Z; ]+ z其实原文标题不是这样的
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' v7 d/ O2 T6 G+ M' n& o; t& H; t这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...5 g( K1 z* C5 ?2 i `9 G
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。) C* T. u8 ~. w# Y0 Y0 Z
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「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。( `. M6 |4 I8 T6 q1 C1 v7 I
; k& p$ ^) X+ p& d8 q6 W 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」+ X! T5 S) X5 u; c' B" X. }: }
- r( g, r: N% f( E0 n4 Z「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 . j7 T4 O" s9 A1 ^; W9 H
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
# F2 y: s0 b" Q: _0 W- V1 K* g- x8 d9 L- o
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
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. U' D- j" R$ G( S7 @$ a) t接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，, v! ^0 X& u# V/ y" m8 _
因此铜板较容易出现正面。
* `5 w2 i" Z3 J- C8 o5 |长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 * b7 C& V6 J) t0 X' j& O
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
! [/ @& [. I8 V' U* N T b/ r心想赢定了。
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3 ~; H- h: m e1 I! j( A没想到开始不到半刻钟，! c8 P" X5 T% ]$ T% }" w" Y; s
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」8 { u9 n/ U7 m9 Y. _( i; g7 Y; J; n
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赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，! D1 l. f! }. E5 D/ p) r
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。. g% H: A* C. h9 |
4 g9 j) |9 Z6 W, S赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?) s+ e9 g5 Z5 h3 S# l
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
' F& ~0 {, _9 @; ]; d
上帝回答道：
! a# q* B: T' _1 y0 W「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」% I8 @9 R1 S, G$ n w
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
$ h8 J0 R- F4 b: ~1 N「而不是先发生在我身上。」1 H% A2 F$ s! Y6 H
6 L0 u7 O: V7 ?0 W
赌徒恍然大悟，
8 @! j: ^( J7 I I1 T' o原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
1 f, k1 U, t7 K竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
! E7 _# U3 E8 k5 \$ S/ U; |「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」& z# J! l0 C" m$ a
上帝说完便不见踪影。 * o/ H- |9 \! H& ^# `& z- T4 I. [3 g
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
) k# g( n/ y9 Y8 l6 P1 [; h若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
7 u$ m" J% d: e S) e% Q3 N9 u* p4 U1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
( j; t$ e# y# L' T# H1 d& G+ @对赌徒十分有利。/ J/ Y4 m* H! @/ u' X# I7 J2 \
. f; j. Q/ G+ K- L
但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现， Y. y' M1 Y' [2 M' v
在还没掷到1000次之前，! M* R4 p# F/ m0 `* r3 s, D
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
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! u2 P: S6 W/ A- Z8 d1 p& }% d 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。+ S% j6 _2 z3 d& I2 m3 z
8 e r& ], v/ s, Q/ M 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
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市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，( ^3 S$ U; @8 Y) M& [
) ?: ~ A2 V# Y: t6 A
永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
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