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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
$ l3 g- B( M5 k9 Q. b: X3 W! H/ x* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c5 i" F' e- \ G
凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k+ \8 B e9 W0 W: ]7 J# B
& ]/ F9 c8 a' k. GG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
$ _2 S: o4 A1 h' e2 Y什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
" `! m% ]# N! I6 S, T+ u
4 U1 ]) d$ } f, F: y" |7 ?& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
# |2 B: L- s3 I3 I/ k既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
6 |7 N* _; [7 o& ^ r1 F& g7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
2 T" y4 L4 G' u做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `' w- l7 }+ a, I: o) B
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
! h0 ]2 ]8 B7 z1 W% j. R# D(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
& l, K1 @' Z+ r! G4 i- `, z4 y6 \2 m3 v- {2 K
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
& z: f7 P8 Q4 g' T
5 ]. a4 U& j3 P(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
2 Q/ j# b- G2 f+ a! `/ z. _5 r9 a- G: s8 K# X$ e
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 1 ~& M: ]) d4 M, M- `8 V
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _' l1 V+ {& Y* _" a0 o
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 1 J& k3 W. J- R: j
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
v6 H& r) {4 l% n7 OS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
7 P: k1 ?6 w) R: F2 i/ R1 `
$ x$ U! Y/ X5 x& ? w0 H1 ?S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
( m1 e. f5 ^: {5 @' S' Y) q% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s- _' H. n' Q# V& y: n2 I
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
! B5 {; j5 Z& q0 b1 I9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j6 ]' e) E5 X6 B( V/ `3 g% ?
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \* [6 c ~" X% Q% Q
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v( K0 r- F9 X" M6 `% b8 T
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 : L! Q& W7 d K
/ j( G {# k3 M" _/ f9 f
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
2 P( a4 |6 h' R' @/ D
& o" x8 e1 A1 M9 i1 H! K8 G( T1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
# A. ?" ?! _# t3 n
* V2 d, U( o! i* B1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 8 a6 n }: X2 g! r+ m) f3 {
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
6 X, b5 l; d& V& lS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T( f6 }) _& q8 ^. |6 Y3 [
( a& J, A8 E8 F% u( ]类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
* B+ h" K! f# s1 Q( Y* Q# L9 `4 n- i: n
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
$ Z$ z$ B* i" d
: C% x7 w# _6 X* h# [( mS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
6 O+ r% T* p6 U" w( F; m' V% T, u, P% O9 q5 x ^7 d; F6 w0 e: ^/ Y G2 o
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 * J7 [) F: ^( T6 v; e
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a P6 w& y& W) Q# Y+ L
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 5 ~- N ~; [/ } M% u8 d8 m
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~4 Q. I% H. G5 y8 @- l
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
/ q& L- d0 ~4 j4 b7 `3 A* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \5 q+ F M! h9 y! K
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 1 l/ i5 I) G+ Q6 L: m5 m4 [
) q( ], k9 L T& t# k$ c% R' P$ A* z E
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 - Z- i7 \) K, z& m5 s
$ G0 u5 p+ `- W- N" H+ VF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 3 o8 B) n) [# `4 m1 r' z
3 ]- s2 A& M: E* N1 M于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?* `9 C+ N' E# W( [! W2 @$ a. c$ b
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {4 Q* x. ]. _7 c* W& ]) D
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
& W- B( Q( ^% G' a% e7 j6 b! y+ D$ n) P# X# M; a$ l( I4 P8 a8 R# b/ C
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 ! g0 c2 |0 h. W8 g
$ d. l3 z. J* s
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
! `1 N5 ]7 z# u4 M5 V, |) z0 S+ A& W7 P9 L& Q1 M6 ?
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \+ I( i* {1 ^/ C2 y
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
% X) y' `, g v' h; c/ }& O通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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