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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑0 C% G2 H% m/ {: I" |
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0 D" m6 O! L4 N$ g7 _凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
( J6 ~& \" _% k$ n6 m. O) |! d" P, j! s. x/ \2 i
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
1 f, j; ?6 [6 o" S什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [) H- X9 Q) Q) U. y7 ?
" N2 D8 H0 w! g, @" ~& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h. s9 Y( I/ J# b& ~6 D4 G% M
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
3 @0 q4 ~8 U$ r7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
; n6 x' l, `* x4 k做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `2 T7 P) V7 d5 z
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
3 a4 f( t# K+ b9 [" F3 z5 `( D(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n3 a" ^4 O8 ]4 |! |& j! ]
9 @" x6 q0 h; ~& z(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 3 J% E8 b& D+ ~9 F+ C
7 X7 Y1 z4 |% f" I, l4 g(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
5 ?5 L" I+ I( ~) |: {* m8 W+ C) T/ B
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 8 n5 ^- _8 D1 s! v# B+ {$ ^
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _9 Y' a- g" q6 t# }, }7 E1 `
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
6 l; a# P0 R1 J; v3 d5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c, |" O( O( w1 j' ~
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
7 o$ o w; N% Y2 E0 Y# t, ~) q1 f- Y$ g) P
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
$ B! j* ]8 b/ D. k; i. y3 x% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
+ ]+ _2 q8 _$ C4 r8 V; AS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 * O) k9 l+ g! ~ k6 i( i
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j0 P% w; b/ l5 m' M- J& c
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \/ m0 K" F2 P9 z8 l8 Z0 C
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v/ h/ M8 h8 S+ N9 K$ u5 i6 X* z, ^
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
+ ^8 C* x& a7 K' Z6 `3 J& ~% d& z; _/ T) D0 e1 E
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
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1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
4 ]' x8 {6 ^" x4 e1 w* A* W8 g X: I& H( F/ f. c7 z4 Z3 } k
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
9 {, H8 [( `7 Q/ V2 u5 }9 D: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
$ }0 V4 N5 o& ~. yS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T* {' ]% C. |0 C5 L6 @# H9 S
! Y( d# ?: n, ?% V& O8 ] a" g
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
2 T" i5 N/ O; a: L9 S+ C, }- q- N: s/ } T9 w9 R
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
/ j# c% j1 s+ A
: A# V% X5 `* ES2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s( A0 |) C. X/ `. Y; I, s1 J: X
; m' V% T, u, P% O/ Y- h' l; C7 d/ l% h E! S
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
3 V% Z$ U, T1 z9 m8 K I8 A6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a# y( \ @' c7 {# J
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 * a* p* o" r1 Q* {
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
" v6 c1 D/ y8 z3 K3 K(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
) p2 ~& w2 y: a, L* W5 k) o- t* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \# r) i9 a% N$ e4 ?0 D. ]7 I1 g0 B
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
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, S- s7 |, c+ Y! b4 v. xB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
; u; e( _7 D0 P$ z" g5 U1 D
, T S! c$ I! p. J3 m5 zF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
+ z! b, m; J( _% d+ O9 s( ^3 a8 S! P1 x7 ]8 f% }
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
( L+ Q+ F, F; i/ B. F& n3 ?9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {' \7 {! `1 Q- q
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
: z6 B# ?8 n8 V' h+ D$ n) P# X# M
- v5 ?. l1 [9 IG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 2 j8 R5 K e( @$ L4 m! h1 Z
3 I% }1 K8 M% k7 \( ]G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]/ e% J$ n& X* v; w' U1 u
- P3 x- L4 n% Q M. v* x
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
* c5 p3 o/ i! [) I+ \6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
) j* V0 o3 j/ s! m0 L. X7 r通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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