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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
: {( x: T4 Q! a* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c' I9 {6 K: o8 E
凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
8 T2 i. M7 M0 W7 p7 F, B3 `: k. R( b1 N! K. o
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)" M" [8 s# N- f4 C0 j" v, [
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [7 V, S5 [5 a) q a' P3 {
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既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
! N! m6 l# e/ B7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s/ r" V) G, T% l4 ]5 O& W
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `3 @+ x9 G' H" I8 d ?0 r( i) K _/ @
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d. Z! u& Z3 j% ]' B' |1 F9 O
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
; Y# [, B1 L! A3 ]
$ h o9 \. P; ?9 g+ o(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 / Y, K# L6 W7 S9 e7 y, ^. b1 D
) C) ?9 o8 g# q q8 i(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t) f4 u( U% C! t
& Q% C3 r! }) m# J8 W
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
0 C {+ t4 W3 Q+ h4 i- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
) E+ Q" ?/ i, j/ U+ Q& L9 `1 A0 {我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 ; t [( _/ T" |( u
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
& A. `0 m: f" p2 I9 A: e0 e. cS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
* F7 \& E& O3 [6 N0 q* ?9 Y/ ^: s7 ]
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 6 o$ _. s% ~8 m, ?0 s9 {
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s+ ^+ N: ~% t+ ]# U. K1 P
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 8 @! G' A, B9 o
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
; n; [5 p. p3 A! x1 M. a8 R% m2 jS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
0 U$ q4 `3 Q. {- G E* \( K) f- c; @8 w8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
. ^. v3 T/ e, J0 M/ |# }) ]1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
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1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l$ j8 @# J0 H: ^
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1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q; ]9 Y9 U5 G! ?. w( h
: W( T9 p4 T0 T* C, f* k. |
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
8 F+ C) ~! J5 K% K: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r2 ]5 @$ b) {# B K( t2 c# S
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T7 B9 ~) g& a* {; P
3 K. u4 Q# t/ g$ S& k" h1 I. U0 [% Q类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
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& Q; @* N0 V4 s4 A2 C5 oS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
4 E$ V. ^- c+ p0 ]" ^ P Y0 b" x% H F' C. Y. v" W, m0 [
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s" P' [3 Y, _: }+ \% l
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S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
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?3 G9 l! ]; T, J1 u( ~S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 , Y' D5 o1 m6 b) b; K0 f- p; N9 [7 E
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
2 i, A3 o- q2 t. A3 P6 O' G(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o z0 ]/ O8 {$ O6 ^7 @
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
; }" u. j) T! T& s7 W g# R好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
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B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
% }! |2 U# o. Q4 i( x6 a, `2 X+ q9 s. c2 F
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
- N) c5 g* {% d
- {+ ~, z0 R& t0 S; F7 N( d4 ?6 F于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
4 C/ }3 r/ b! f6 X4 m( f% {/ H4 i9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {. |9 ^, z& Z& X( w {
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
/ e1 [; U2 A6 R; P6 l6 f$ I' E+ D$ n) P# X# M
# d+ N" v' c. yG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 0 Z. `$ |+ |! u5 t6 k; @- h7 L
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G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
7 U; Q8 s1 X; ]: V/ r: j5 q- E# W/ J- W, c/ H o
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \9 Q8 a3 r) k9 J
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i# P# S, e7 f$ z% H) w. n. I
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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