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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 3 m- w$ I+ O, u( o# b

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3 \( `: x9 w' Y  n8 R+ Z" ~: {只跟踪一个联赛
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，/ ~$ a+ H( y7 M* m" \0 Y- h0 ?
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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$ Y% a0 ~  m0 L方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）. N/ B4 p8 a' y3 n- e3 S
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，  j( b, v/ i- J
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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2 c  i- }& J$ R6 k4 z% u当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目6 J  }6 j9 {% T3 ~) j' n
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9 n7 d! p8 h0 \  \; r; o0 Q2 I9 S2 |  s
亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
. y3 ]# W+ T3 z- p/ u( D9 q7 e( X! J% |5 {8 p/ }  S! F
而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，$ Q7 B# o& p% v6 `

- G( u# `8 x) A* C. e- M但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。$ p5 G' F2 n7 _; V& E" k
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) c/ g4 T3 a+ ^. ?. w& a% }* S理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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这比买国债存银行合算。
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，! h7 r, C1 h: G3 p0 E3 |
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。9 Q7 J' @8 T4 t

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2 Y: i: n7 [- x9 Y( h6 j常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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* i5 E" o6 m3 w: R9 u放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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就是回避了大的亏损，' l% x3 y9 r4 X) C) l0 W; E
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
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0 V$ V; p! ]5 ?回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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3#
学习一下，天天进步

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4#
顶起再慢慢看

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