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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>


6 }: ?: k# _! ?7 l8 d賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
3 o) K. k" V0 W; K  P, o8 Q- m: ^10A234567896 P6 n9 M, B1 i5 m# E  i
-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159: P* n& w# @  u& [4 A
-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146
! {2 o* d) f) g+ ^8 M-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.1337 x3 ?" M4 `) s/ Z& q- r
-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120: F* [$ ~# z5 L9 {
-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108
: S2 @# f7 G8 n3 c-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096' T5 K! L  C- N; c2 [
-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085; i* O5 o  z3 G2 U4 c/ C3 y
-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074
2 o/ E) h+ _( {" Z$ C( y& H# w7 ]( F0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064: t8 m; X; Q8 {# E
1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054
) G* V. A' A4 X2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045. t) [' A2 @" K# E# ~' U# }
3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.036
1 Z: G+ X( y  B7 V4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028  S) z! S& d- m8 D4 C- c. H
5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020
% Y$ Y2 b* l0 |# e6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013" M. z2 F7 E: |0 h. p
7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007& ]4 N/ Z# N$ m4 q' W
8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001+ J7 L7 Z! D5 e$ z) m
9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.9963 R+ h# k, g3 e3 h2 y$ m: r" \: }
10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992  ]; v" [! m8 G( g  j8 H
11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988
# B/ I( m* M9 r8 e& }; m' o; R- k12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.9859 g; V+ |) U0 v6 h7 `* L* L
13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982
. h7 O, C* l5 M0 n0 I+ y( }  {6 A14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980
! r7 d4 q5 U' a1 @3 R2 A, F15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979
# v  @9 B: ]+ u9 U& j  U16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.9793 E* N# {/ c6 ?. l
17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979
6 k- T% {! V8 L: a18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979# ?# h5 b: W$ `* i# L8 Q/ Q* ^
19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981
: G3 k, F) l: |) B9 ~# w  B, z( R20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983
& c( w2 _0 [+ ^: a( l9 R! G' B21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986' f# S9 C/ Q" c
22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989
( c! g6 ?9 |4 J* v3 ?; ~23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
4 k$ r6 l0 ^2 e  g7 A+ r" O24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997
( E. `$ h' r1 Z25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002* M) c6 E& o/ A- V5 L" s# d5 B( ^: d

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。

$ ?, M. k+ A0 t/ W& I; ^( [- t; Y
表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類8 F: p! C6 c& {$ D- z6 t  O! H
10A23456789
/ h& c) m. w6 b0 ]& `& ~" Y-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.0952 q) [# `4 t: y
-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082
  F+ G/ |% o7 G; N-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069' L& V/ V6 z+ b2 i+ u/ D4 S/ m
-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056
! Q$ t7 m" a) d7 ?  c-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.0447 }$ x+ G4 {% l* V. p4 A, i' r4 F' ~
-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032
0 @- j. k0 M: E- z# T6 |-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021+ g/ z' k4 p7 K8 y. v8 P% a, c
-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010
5 k# |- Y/ u( u9 X4 ]( ?! S+ m00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0001 T' W; C0 q* L2 s# v8 X) k
1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010, a, q+ b3 @2 }, W
2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019
( {, Z7 u. g5 j3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
% O; b/ u/ ]6 {# t; D4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036
! Y9 B- d  X8 r" \5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044: q/ `- V- v9 x: e7 P! x1 x
6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051
% c  y! d- }, S4 z1 t7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057% D* Q9 K7 t3 [: S
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.0633 G% s. f! M, s, t9 i
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.0687 t, X+ _. b: f' W+ y, i
10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
+ D( ]0 |, o( e8 y# T% z0 m11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076% P+ w4 i6 N0 A. o7 G- V- X$ Q
12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079
6 W" I( J* F7 q13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082+ y9 Y7 f5 c. q. U
14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.0847 ~% C$ b) ^2 R! t9 c. _
15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.0851 l7 m2 x; X% b$ ]+ S+ {; s) _# ]
16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085
5 g- G3 F! q" ~5 b7 |5 K/ j17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085
6 c% a. I. Q# t) c! O* e! b& f% v18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085
, K* W& X" D- T* R* g+ v$ h19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083
- G& j. }( h2 {20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081# g+ `2 A, T. f0 t* o
21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078
% `/ V% b/ E; U) P* L9 p4 u6 E22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075
- L2 e1 @# P9 h23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071- H: V8 B" i: h$ H
24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.0673 W) P+ D- o) p
25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062
: [9 m+ h% _% w; n

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。


& K( u( C& i. X! x% ]3 n+ X押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類5 s" S/ ]6 W% |* T& J' N: r$ n
10A23456789
$ j5 i4 R5 ~8 Q, w, m-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122
; x# l. ~" n* b1 z* T# _; [-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137
. ~7 G: D& ^& `4 l3 m-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152
: p- P  O' \! F4 e2 U" @-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166* L- T. p5 |7 B5 P( Q
-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180' h5 p" x9 Q, f2 Z2 D' y% Q
-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193" f% o$ s- C' y7 T4 z. M* A
-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205
, `( y% L  Z5 O% _% @% u- L3 }-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.2175 H: H6 P2 t0 g3 ~; n% ]
0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.2287 R4 d) d3 k7 n- f9 t
1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.2399 d% G8 Y7 K; T' H- s; E5 L( J
2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249
/ T* ]- ^* |: l. Z1 p. `) L3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258: t5 N) i1 L. `) Y% @
4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266
2 t/ O+ O' m( p8 R5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274! H) N: `  @' Y% K8 I
6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281
% r1 _0 F# c0 q! P7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287
. r* Q7 d% N7 I! A; _9 @1 w/ l8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293$ M. V. G. o; V  L3 D1 X
9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298  ^. A+ C' q- q
10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302& _  u, B" A2 z
11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306; n0 E; q" b' L3 o* F
12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308* ~/ o4 Y" R' F3 K% T. [
13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310
: K3 R, v' y. q8 L4 h% s  j  U+ \! y14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.3117 i0 {; p+ K0 V8 b# v" E& U
15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.3119 ?* b# l" Q0 a2 p
16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311: w  c) C7 B6 V3 T# Z
17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310! ?. f$ b4 Q# A) w7 d8 E' H6 t; T- V
18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308
1 `( ^1 T% A# G4 O5 u19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305
. c" [! B& g4 L. [! l20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301  _6 e& t  w% L7 _, r  F- M8 Z0 T
21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297
' |7 H4 ~$ Z' i, y3 Z9 r/ u22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292
5 X/ |# n  x4 ^9 {& N23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286
; k: o1 p, x& n, [, T: M( ?24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279! P7 m) Z/ w& p% A  g9 j" \
25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272
& s! R; @1 s0 t' T+ ?# \

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
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:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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