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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。4 L0 r& z2 s: x. p& }% K1 ^

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# E+ Y* g& P3 c$ p8 P- R, f: p西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率+ c, z: i0 A! a' @

$ m8 }; V3 Z% [; x+ @# I2 `以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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. w& j; v3 N$ U* ^, R- r皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?7 F/ n6 [$ B$ X5 q$ O4 n7 J
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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4 g* c# x" P* s  j以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?2 y4 l- h+ l  g) R( q3 g
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盈利可能性
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9 `; T3 ?2 Y# `! ], K5 W9 O9 ^对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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0 D2 G. m+ a* I0 c, g增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?- c; s. j+ m5 ]; X  W" h

3 H2 n) I0 [$ I; F: J2 l: ^a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 : R; f) s7 L9 m4 O. {4 L
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么. W  f" @4 [- y

/ j7 _* d! F8 Q9 ?0 U. B1 N40%的机会你会收到150元的利润- B& u1 D6 W9 E" B* R
60%的机会你会一无所有
& P+ V1 l& h, B$ {( w预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 ) T7 A3 {2 B* q9 w2 F( E1 ]' i
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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  V8 L0 W2 H. T6 l! {基于增值的投注# L# f, M- c9 ~

4 e/ Q8 ~! f% h, b: K4 E0 A凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。) k# o, \- k: Q# C! A: S2 Q
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)  A; `  h5 ]' T! O) }( q3 B

0 u  f* e3 ]% |6 Y" |+ SA=博彩资金
$ P5 f; A* `$ g6 y: UP=获胜机会" }) P9 v, w$ {$ a( G6 f+ e4 ]  I& V* w
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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+ i8 g* C( ~! F$ E/ l- t1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)- ?+ k1 I+ [% I8 w; V

4 W* p6 v; ^$ t/ kA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)4 j# ^0 \; `$ `! Y

# s7 E4 D  b& l/ n9 A8 U9 Z3 fA=03 e0 D( _% U5 v( I9 G
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢- z  m; y. k. S  N: v

' m/ h) d% J( {/ Q( C+ ^2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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: g; }% \: M  M" H7 k, ], W  fA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)) d6 {( q; `$ J  e

9 S$ X/ C% W0 G; P" h* NA=0.12 ~8 Z/ Y( a5 B4 E5 ?
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去, L7 x, H0 U) I' p

' m1 a7 D4 p/ L: @* J; M3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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+ a: U/ u) H1 e/ lA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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, X! }8 O6 ?4 C- O2 f4 aA= -0.2 5 \" X: p. g0 z6 R' D

" [1 m, i% N  b# l$ t结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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