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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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7 s0 \7 E$ Y1 g3 M- @- G+ u( \2 J' V2 L, q9 a/ f/ }- V
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率& G5 V+ @: A+ A. r
" h& Z# ?; l1 L3 D) Z7 _
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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, }3 G& T$ B, [, n$ @皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 8 [! K) s0 N6 a& R
; k+ u+ J l0 U0 N很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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8 [/ t3 E) |& E! G5 I答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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$ N% W) ^$ j. P8 h2 o w+ f& h1 b/ _" g9 @- p/ J; c; a
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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% K/ Z3 g8 W: g( M8 S( P盈利可能性3 v" n9 s. ^+ @4 v
6 H- {3 C9 ~( S) t# U8 n# D对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值7 k$ k* P2 P% |; ~5 E0 P$ F& l4 D( L
3 U4 X8 E0 e! K' ^: U许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。( m9 u: a( d2 X6 s5 x; [$ ^" z+ i
5 P: r5 F# c. t; r# z! U
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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0 j- Y5 [# `7 m6 k, Ta) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 * f) h4 Q" z% O* t* F- k+ \
0 w8 B- }9 e, F: @% m4 J1 h* |/ |
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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1 D9 j8 L6 x& O! U: N+ S% T40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
3 I2 o/ b- C/ L* |60%的机会你会一无所有9 z7 ^, D4 L2 [' z& [" j
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 / {* e3 G1 e, f- x
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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# F: F! v% J' v7 z' h增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注6 D& s, N) ~: ?( ^1 Z
2 `8 E# k; l. X( v2 A+ q, p凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。2 x6 @& |+ I: ^) @2 D) W" q: w
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)1 u* [6 M. {# P1 h# U* g t
6 i: b l+ P# gA=博彩资金6 W% K Q0 z8 N
P=获胜机会, T; A% w2 ?2 y
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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, R: e( Z; {: V- `% k6 F好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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# o) R L, v+ T( d9 z* V& \1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)+ @; C; q9 J+ P Q# Z( J$ O
. C. L! w( Y( @2 yA=0" n# ]# j' z' f: O8 W6 V$ [! z w& h
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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& S n! d/ v! X8 [5 CA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)4 c* B" |6 A$ ]( [7 o( f
( }: D/ x4 X- _: m5 k% k- bA=0.11 H7 g# Q7 p% i; ~
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去$ I+ U" H! ~) E0 @
4 g/ a s ~4 L2 z" X O' q' Q3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2): {0 e: l) `. V. D* ]# h
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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7 ~" P7 e" [( q" T1 |A= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好5 d0 z6 X: v' ^' L/ m! U
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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