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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。4 S! [8 S& E2 \& {6 J" E
) l5 j) S2 Q/ U# Q2 o! G/ Y/ H# U3 Z. b* j1 g, Y' |( l# c
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
! v' Z- p6 S' y8 A( ^; v0 i; [+ J* }8 v' m% a
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 5 o$ o8 g1 p1 g: t
3 b$ |# {. V# ]很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?$ d4 p6 O: R5 o6 \9 y# n6 R
& y G. Q: z! P+ `8 U7 G答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)9 b I# ^$ }; ?/ S5 f
t$ G: w+ n( T1 U! ?: D0 G" @# M; T( F) K( i! ?
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?5 U6 w2 q& R; y/ @6 q1 |' h' w
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0 \, f+ z/ F: l( e) O$ b盈利可能性3 C1 l, J) I$ [4 L; p/ \; n
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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6 W- q( j1 A+ l- [: R6 @增值. b Y6 [/ d# C$ M0 N+ H
' ]/ P) {6 b" O) T; d* ]: m许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 2 V) O$ b. i5 c& E, J
) v; G( Z5 M, W- e# V正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么! d. u% i j O& G8 x8 u5 k$ a
. s! ?4 Z" Y2 U8 u4 \40%的机会你会收到150元的利润1 O6 T% C$ V: @; O: S5 z% }. d
60%的机会你会一无所有( r/ Q8 ~4 B8 B* d( _, [0 x
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
" o$ c5 S u/ e) Q) e& M由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。$ f. e& H( L* N7 x/ h9 ~
0 A+ K5 T: x3 q) m% t o4 t: s8 Y% [4 D
增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。+ W: ~9 ]" w4 c
6 G9 ~; P; C5 R5 \3 ]
基于增值的投注) V9 W( V) X6 ]4 m- A8 L
( |, I. ?) ^) D" b
凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
# A2 j, d% G1 k2 @
" `. c r6 n" ^1 I3 x. i6 N+ _* a: T公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)6 b8 f; ^3 l5 L7 N" J7 J
! w& W6 P# ~8 U* A$ G: R8 ~ @6 {
A=博彩资金
) ]+ d3 T4 F9 F# ^% S6 {2 V9 p+ LP=获胜机会1 N1 `7 [. C- M$ [
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)8 N! ~1 d2 G( N- o% a4 l
# B+ e5 F7 v5 O, {: m+ w. X首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。) j+ j: l6 \: _# M$ P4 Z7 h3 o$ i
$ `" [4 |" i. G+ l7 _好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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; o1 T0 n4 ~; X9 o, j2 Z. b) ?3 A1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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5 e; |3 @0 I4 c, U/ yA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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2 J" ~% ]; L' mA=0% f1 J; |' v* A
$ c4 K ^ G6 s2 i$ {) t. G结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
/ W0 O0 S1 d0 ~: O I1 c9 ?- x: c/ U6 Q W# R) Q; J
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)) m2 z/ ^3 {. D+ s) G
/ b3 o# r2 c, a% R! \A=0.19 @; g" {+ m7 r. R. N I
7 G% J& a3 W% d6 K6 F& H结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
% X: V* E4 W+ v+ _0 W6 ^5 e5 ~9 n
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)! Z$ ~# S3 D" R9 F$ M
; C8 t$ T: X$ g% F. \- HA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
% X- R8 F$ W* i/ J; ]) D) e) L+ B+ c: n7 L4 c5 y
A= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
) v9 I$ }1 v+ J0 ~0 e0 l: J
0 z, A3 v' Y0 ]) y5 J第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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