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[lastpost] => 2802885 比特币从低点反弹7%，但加密货币在美国贸易中仍面临压力。（转） 1770052481 人生如赌
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币兑美元暴跌：现在抄底还是继续等待更低的价格？（转）
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两年后，当比特币价格跌至 40 万美元，以太坊价格跌至 2.5 万美元时，你打算如何感谢特朗普先生造成比特币价格的这次历史性暴跌？
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. k% G) y" ?, Z7 A9 X0 a我们确实需要印更多美元。根据 99Bitcoins 和 Cowen 的分析师预测，美元价格下跌的时间点如下：
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9 ~6 u( n: ^1 W比特币价格走势：为什么全世界都在恐慌抛售？1 P% \1 y2 i: S, T: w
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市值
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, z. @ ]; R4 x! E$ ]$ u( T24小时 7天 30天 1年 所有时间
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结果是，加密货币领域充斥着太多骗局、山寨币骗局和无用项目；我们需要一个新的架构来构建未来。
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, K. u0 w) J }# O在他的框架下，市场目前的表现已经像一个熊市周期，在没有散户狂热的情况下触顶，这可能会延长周期，并使反弹在即将结束之前显得很有说服力。5万至6万美元。7 N3 ^. _- P$ ?
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（来源：Facebook）/ d: Q( G+ `2 }. ~
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对于任何问“我们什么时候买入比特币？”的人，这里有一个明确的结论：你要寻找的是投降区域和确认水平，而不是感觉。- |! O. D: X0 i' e% p% ~! q6 t
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> Benjamin Cowen（Into The Cryptoverse）：“最有可能的结果是比特币……至少会跌到 200 周移动平均线。我认为低点很可能在 10 月份出现……那时我会买入。”" X8 k6 J# e0 ^ V
. b8 W2 v, l& X* q科恩还提到，到了春夏之交，他愿意重新审视这个论点。
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+ K3 @8 Z5 x; v( s9 C z/ r5 O买入区域地图：挥杆前需要注意的事项
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考恩的“买入窗口”逻辑基本上分为两类：( k( O9 l8 Y7 y
- E$ V% ]* X$ v% T战术性逢低买入（风险较高）：价格扫过之前的低点后，出现反弹并触及阻力位（通常是 200 日均线区域），这可能形成宏观上的更低高点，并带来另一个卖出机会。结构性买入（风险较低）：夏末至第四季度的情况，恐慌情绪高涨，波动性很大，价格正在测试长期成本基础水平。# C- @5 L, W: O; ^: N9 D
& U( g; \2 e, A1 F' M1 X8 w就我个人而言，如果我要买入，我希望买入的感觉是不舒服的，而不是像在商场看到“促销”横幅那样。这通常意味着在杠杆和信心都被消耗殆尽的情况下，试探性地在深层成本价位区间进行交易。, q$ y, z; |- h; O; E; u" R. y8 o
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Glassnode 将这种结构描述为“脆弱的”，其上涨行情容易受到抛售和供应过剩的影响，而不是一种清晰的趋势体系。
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* R/ D4 y' R+ {- _& ^为了追踪这一点，许多交易员通过 FRED 的美元和利率系列来观察贸易加权美元指数和政策预期。
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, p' B m3 O) e3 z一个简单的决策框架：逢低买入。市场此刻正在告诉你什么6 j4 D- b6 k' X1 v( `
+ E% N8 w c! A8 x3 j如果你想要一种基于规则的方法，而不是沉迷于无意义的滚动浏览：
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激进的进入策略：只有当抛售势头疲软时，才在主要成本基础支撑区域附近（想想“真实均值”区域）扩大规模。保守派的入场思路：等待持久的转变，例如周线强势重新夺回主要移动平均线水平（考恩使用 50 周逻辑作为市场机制过滤器）。无效化以示尊重：如果比特币在每周收盘价上重新站稳关键趋势水平并守住，那么“中期熊市”的论点就会减弱；现在可能是最佳买入时机。, O, o6 ^! G( [% m1 B" n3 z" F, @
/ V- e6 s' J3 g8 t( R, Z" [- S当然，最稳妥的做法是逢低买入，而不是试图抄底。少量买入，如果年底前股价创下历史新高，你就不会亏损。
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唉，这市场真是让人捉摸不透，感觉抄底和等待都挺纠结的 |
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