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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌,黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束(转)
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时,BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地,遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。' r; X# q# ~; I- [! e
. l4 D5 B, ]/ }# F8 R4 K但你看不到的是,比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大,罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标,还是说这将是它的终结?
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开局艰难,但历史看好牛市) j% X( U+ d ]# P( j$ U+ z
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说,这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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来源:Alphractal
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15年来,只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%,胜算仍然对比特币有利。, Q7 T$ r1 s7 F+ N: |3 f2 O8 ^
) I1 \5 Y! L! R1 {5 K2 a尽管开局不稳,但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨,保持这种势头。
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事情变得有趣了' d. @# R6 o9 v( Q
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。% [8 L4 y; b& l4 r
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来源:X5 [* y# o r! _" ?$ ?8 [1 g/ ?
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根据最近的数据,该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平,而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右,从历史上看,这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。. \' j+ Z' i3 a4 S
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说,该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。, C8 v; |* o6 l9 M1 x: H4 H2 T
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随着黄金价格处于高位,而比特币出现触底信号,风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币,而不是传统的避风港。
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力7 r/ t+ F- i/ C5 |. W$ d( u U
经过几天的持续抛售,截至发稿时,比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。8 m V- E+ |7 e) \" z. r: {
8 V$ q( ?; ], a, y, x7 J* }+ T来源:TradingView
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱,RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时,MACD 图柱趋于平缓;如果买盘活跃,则可能出现动能逆转。7 C: N& m) E4 l+ f& A
3 {' t+ F/ V' E' Z0 _1 `然而,BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA(20、50、100),整体趋势仍看跌。# I3 \( r! P( F. ^% B
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏,但在此之前,有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。8 L0 N6 A! r3 W5 Z) P8 ?6 |
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十月才过一半别急着下结论,比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠,但老韭菜都懂,Uptober还没完呢 |
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