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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。; }9 Q8 k+ Y+ D4 q$ `' g. }9 \
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。8 C) M# z) G* i6 q) m# Y. r8 Y
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
4 r% W6 f, a8 G# V! h2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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来源：Alphractal
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; w# s( _ \4 I. F9 E5 N, ^15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。3 L* Y( D# X8 \# m" P( `
4 p0 S$ c6 C9 s尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。9 D# r+ s( _* ]3 y6 [+ P9 ?
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事情变得有趣了
0 P2 ?6 j" M: Y7 o$ p& kBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。3 E9 w" @, o1 _ L3 w9 z8 h4 c
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来源：X6 e6 n/ b' v7 H/ p! Q2 y
: k1 \0 N' {) G根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。% X' M" q/ V; b0 ^
) M& b6 e2 e1 o( n$ sBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。3 L/ X, d( M& O+ O& _
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。* r; x5 r. k9 ?( W1 V7 Y3 \
2 R, D m$ ^: N! k, O随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。+ h2 ]( M; H+ h
, Z7 \/ |" U/ \& o) M( @! Q空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
" N: m* z0 y) Q1 {' s/ k* Y2 [ q经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。. v5 s! @; ?5 Y! n w* R2 y1 ~
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来源：TradingView/ i! \( t8 q! u$ T# W
1 A2 q& E" @3 |/ y( @7 c. i6 b6 a日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。" p' `. H: p% @; S. a) o
) Y8 @( P8 ]$ @2 p- J然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。7 ~$ w; T; ?& m5 |1 ?
# w( R. F9 p- M3 b) o突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。0 n% s& q1 C2 B8 G9 N- z3 m
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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