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[lastpost] => 2810805 Arthur Hayes：每一次中东战争，都是做多比特币的机会？（转） 1772472724 caoch
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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+ i8 r+ {# ?1 U. e ^2 E3 s v 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。( z1 r5 @. w6 q% h. F- H
+ F8 u. L- X" V: K 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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; m: t8 I8 R6 b( v0 E 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。/ h2 I! G4 B$ {2 l0 \
" g# h& y5 l( C# Z4 |5 ^% Z/ z6 v 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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~# y$ U) t9 k2 t 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测， H3 {! j4 w P: b& T* c! i( r1 Z
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价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。
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“从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。” Q$ V. e7 N; D) y6 `
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+ ^3 K' s. j0 o3 f. S* c% A1 L 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。; W; a ~0 U0 _% R" n
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“$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在2 ^9 F0 J. d* w4 I
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”) _. M7 G' `6 j W! e
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) U- @( G0 T$ S 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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$ e3 Q0 ?2 b* U* v 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。- v) m: @2 F% f' u; W+ l4 m
9 r" t5 w+ ~, c. S9 { 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。9 e% s: N$ ^6 m |% d3 p! J; t2 f
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9 Q4 k4 B W, E5 X5 o( Z 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，
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8 v/ h: ]! L1 ~3 P/ @8 o; E+ \9 i# U市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”# V6 z3 o6 I' R
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