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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。; I5 [7 s' V1 d
; R, i% P3 z& B: }, G! h! i 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。( K7 d3 O0 n0 L7 L7 J
' W' n2 M2 h% [9 R" W4 e1 J 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。6 V: r4 |) l" Y5 S% C: w6 G
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针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。% m0 d4 g7 N7 z4 C. M2 j& Z- l
$ H; u" E9 A( H1 G4 l* }8 A 知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，/ k/ G# o4 r B4 y/ i! s
3 z1 M$ z3 ]2 ?( m价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。
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“从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间- B+ U4 _" r+ ^2 A
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”
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" I8 P! G( J% ]; c% P 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。8 u3 h# c- @7 U& K' t5 S
* P+ _% P4 r9 d& {, b p6 @ “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”
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6 Q4 T' T6 I* a/ ?* M& S2 U" u 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。7 o1 f7 z% Y: g, l+ y
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势' x$ l9 p1 A1 \
7 k0 q+ a* D' ~& A 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。+ R3 h+ N7 p9 M
) Z/ |9 u' z+ Y" I' S1 H3 \ 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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& I! \" I% q% | 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，& U: k( G3 W( ^" D0 v% t7 Z
$ v0 V* E4 z, J' E/ W9 [市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”
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