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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
/ G+ t2 h- t) r0 Z9 |' Z     4 k4 n# ~8 _) l0 ]& r
     平手中水,主队有利
# V* g, X# ?9 d/ O7 Z& d     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
' f1 O# ^2 Z3 W7 {) n1 U     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:! B  f7 R' b4 p  \' p. w
     英超主队
2 S+ J* p' B9 Y9 i* G     胜:13场 48%0 }! {4 o& d2 E1 D. {6 Y* f
     平:5场 17%, I# ^# A( a4 }2 [" B- ~/ i% J
     负:9场 35%2 M$ G8 `! J3 E8 Z
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。. R" i$ c$ G9 Q" G
     4 z/ _" E% B3 T! f/ `$ z; }7 H
     一、初盘阶段& m( e+ E) F. t- f
     具体到水位如下:
3 C6 Z8 _$ T5 x% q     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负/ _3 P5 J6 c2 v- ?; X% R
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负( W+ M& G  x7 [3 ~
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
6 o1 G: d) ]1 _! {- s     
  F1 G& [% M" a. f# d, C     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。$ @7 n, |2 H: T0 `+ h+ K
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
8 u! |6 e' B  T3 b6 R# ~! m: T: y/ `8 Z     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
7 a& H, \: J! d0 o; \- V* {     . s' _) ^/ j, P$ X* i: L
     二、临场阶段/ H9 }' S6 l9 B4 ]8 }5 L7 F
     . J$ ~- t& s, A2 w
     具体到变盘和水位如下:
, @, k! K1 K9 L- V/ B* B1 S     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负) h! d$ f  z' V% j2 v
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
+ b7 o* W8 z( {' F7 B. {- W     
0 b9 J; o( g7 z2 }1 M5 ]6 u     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。& f$ l5 ]! l" [& p# f7 M$ I3 [, A. a
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:$ m' e4 u/ \" @# x7 j# }
     
. n: R" T2 Q. l6 j) M$ B* `     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
, M4 c, z8 C! ?/ M$ X7 U     初盘:0.82平手1.048 ]- ^! t' i- z  i! x
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85) S' @  g) \; ~0 ~; D5 C3 w' D! K
     
  S2 {) c% H& Q- ~     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
0 R* }& f' F/ H: H; R     初盘:0.76平手1.10+ ]9 [7 e3 k$ W1 @
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
) R4 @  T/ q7 }& m     , _1 f5 m- v. d  B7 Y
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
, Z9 `" j3 }( d8 w) v     初盘:0.82平手1.04
# v+ _) q" h# u+ K; \) ]     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
- j6 ~2 ?6 a: t5 f$ J     
, S" \% X7 A) L) i# |( B     伯恩利2-1西汉姆0 Z4 Q2 B! T2 y2 E6 ^, p1 t0 [& [
     初盘:0.88平手0.98* l/ B* X& \+ x3 F' \) a( g
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74) m! @& b2 x8 ^/ k& s: A
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。6 O+ M% U# Y" b4 y& P* r5 P
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。/ g1 Y, A# [0 s, v5 `
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
, [3 R% b& P& H7 ^0 R" v4 |     
1 h/ ^2 F' t8 }( ^  R4 N' a% X- P     三、球队表现  A$ A4 o% d( d" L9 A+ o  Z" I9 O
     
: h" C* e$ ^4 L: ?9 ?1 P     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
; a0 f! @5 G% H6 n( Q4 O     . U! s4 N5 _" e
     四、投注要点! r2 J" y  u- i& [
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败! e% k) ?6 s5 ]) v- H* x
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头0 O8 n5 L0 }. I
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
6 f8 c# E, w% |4 o+ h. i     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
$ p! N" x8 @% Z% \: |7 q     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
# @- }. h  G3 d& w; |7 v     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大8 N, Q* Q% T6 R
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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