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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
2 w# b+ q( ~7 Z& g" ` G$ n$ b/ s 2 T9 b d" J6 F$ Y% s# W& @
平手中水,主队有利
2 `7 C- G" w+ n5 ` 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。) k% T4 w; O; j1 V8 [$ B
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:5 i1 U& _8 X }/ a. j! Q
英超主队4 F: ?5 ]* h. S6 H1 C7 H5 s' y
胜:13场 48%
: y* A( H; V2 O" |9 T9 i 平:5场 17%5 h" a+ N1 x9 ]
负:9场 35%
* f x, m/ O9 ]8 ~ 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。/ ?; I4 z9 n% |4 Y0 w4 v F2 [7 m
+ p$ E+ u) U; E 一、初盘阶段
2 {; X: @) X6 D; S3 @ 具体到水位如下:
6 _# h- a- ?4 X' \9 n) Y. C 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
! S4 A- c- l8 i8 n 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
' e8 [. G/ A/ {9 O' Q 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负: u# r1 b( M2 V' ?& q
9 ~0 `+ L0 h' w7 c 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。 n* k( k0 F W9 U5 ^6 V2 u" x- B
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。0 S7 |$ P# r- Q1 _6 b. H1 m
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
) \% O3 _. j" ^& E " S5 s- u0 {$ D6 X3 \( z
二、临场阶段
9 R, ?% F: D- N S $ c7 l8 m/ W8 a8 P) [2 a7 } `7 b9 w
具体到变盘和水位如下:3 }7 p$ {* |/ t! ?7 W- |0 J
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
9 ?& r( f/ \' A8 Y7 k# h 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
8 I+ m0 y+ Z6 X% W8 v5 {* y
' P X2 F8 N! n9 v7 w6 d 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
^ [- X! M/ \( j$ Q 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:3 l. k( D. i3 }: \
' m4 E7 a' P2 l: Y4 m. p! _2 y7 m 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
; _6 `: [8 h6 L# k! s 初盘:0.82平手1.04
5 I) m+ f4 [3 W, z# n 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85) ]/ {- N! D# f. I
- p: F- N6 {0 s5 } N$ z8 C5 t# w 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
" K/ i: `! b# I( W | \+ |0 ^ 初盘:0.76平手1.108 C9 f# ~ ]/ J- a. O) i1 M+ y
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.912 E- ^$ {9 |; h' ^! _$ L1 r
) `( M' T l% T( ^+ d8 j' h/ H 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技6 m& O5 S" B- }# Q4 R# N
初盘:0.82平手1.04: b% m* b: A1 e+ a2 e, S1 G1 ~
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
7 `& {0 _. C8 C% _9 g' f; S , }! s' y9 z/ X" p6 T4 \
伯恩利2-1西汉姆% K$ u% w# B o. t$ }! b# H
初盘:0.88平手0.98
5 |4 V! w1 f' @9 T% q 终盘:1.12平/半0.74+ |0 f8 [& ^/ ]: ^; s7 v4 @) x9 t; H/ d
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
: `% B- m p- ` n& A 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。- D/ [) u- f2 O- ^$ d( b" i
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
# z3 `4 b, z S$ v) x* K6 T) ` : y, J* d" Q6 z3 t0 I1 E7 U+ z
三、球队表现
" X. I a# e3 j5 Z: {: h 8 P0 B7 A7 B! x9 |1 {
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
* V- P9 W T& Z/ e2 ? + v5 Q1 L( Z! r2 N; r
四、投注要点
" ~. {! L f: s9 \* Q 要点1:平手中水、主多不败
[( w' K- V% x 要点2:平手降盘、走两头
$ M) ~0 b7 U! ^, P5 C 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败! ?+ P# [5 Z. I1 E; h
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大% N4 x0 U" y2 W: c
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任2 ~0 E: ~; s7 p# k
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大$ c5 j$ u7 }7 Y, b. N9 Y9 z
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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