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" v& A/ {0 [1 K$ P% p加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为8 W0 E. f8 x1 F( }! `! r# \( l
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
8 m8 K9 o: e3 f& E衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。: h2 Q4 C3 ?; F1 p' g7 m( P
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
9 @5 O% `( \# v; B4 Z9 i$ EBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
# o/ V: g" E# f+ f" F: YPantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：/ D: Q; l7 g' U; t
2024年4月第四次减半4 h. f: `/ `& Y7 ^
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
! y5 q8 [9 a, u7 B" `可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)9 s1 u. n$ {, I/ n; j
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
: `1 H4 F& O$ E+ T( q6 u- Q9 {) K二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务; Q; w3 R/ p- E0 O4 J' x0 j
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。% i. A( @- l9 Z7 l: `/ z
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠# b, y6 s( \" X( N; X( B
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。+ ]: b$ e0 M! T' U0 U w
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁* z+ Q% ?% A: ?, |
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统, f% Y$ O7 e) G7 N9 c$ h
金融(TradFi)产品。. W; w% b% {$ [! w0 F
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨( K/ a/ L! E3 \( P
链桥」的项目。 z% ~( x* s3 w! _5 c0 `! f: G0 x5 m
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
' Q0 H& H; f2 d, z- M) v模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
) b( H$ q7 y0 k6 h等。
5 a' @, p( e6 @+ ~# OPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
/ P+ i+ g( K+ ^' T3 M4 @- U在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。* Q$ j9 M+ W4 s, H
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
6 P" T7 [/ r0 {Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位' e5 c/ J) H A7 t8 X
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
) \2 K$ x8 m6 ZPantera点名了几个项目：
) c6 ~" l2 D+ d6 sHivemapper：去中心化的Google地图" Q( u6 n1 w, ?
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台2 e1 K2 M. I- a4 T! o" n- L
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品- F' A) @! M9 E- Y, w' q; C( Z
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划3 G6 }1 o( G% @% c8 t7 j1 K4 _
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游
1 y& }* y! p# W0 }; B六、小型公链需专注特定应用1 ]1 `& u9 W& X7 }) d
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
% O8 g* h" g$ U至能直接与L2竞争。; {4 `! s4 n* e, }' \3 X7 \ I
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
u, b9 {- _4 ?& UPantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
# v: ^/ |( O# Q) L# B0 m. y成为「应用链」。
; e+ }% E/ y/ v. q. H& t9 t事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
- [1 \9 q% o, l' }; L, ^
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