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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。 ! Y0 B& d$ C" R' R
以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因. Q' {! R: v& n% H- j
此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。
! ?! `; q5 w. C. }9 d- R1 Y8 _9 e以太坊基金集体亏损
8 O! H8 z" h, e( ]4 E, @+ X根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。 % J+ N B( z5 I
与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。
1 L8 S4 x4 m( Q9 b' e与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。
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编辑切换为居中
9 Y/ |* b3 N. `3 B+ k流入/流出加密资金(按资产)
6 I. h4 I r6 _8 r+ n8 ]& K: p这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。
; m# d5 o- k; v以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。
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; R: ]2 O/ S; Y" r3 P" X6月5日的TVL以太坊 , B+ P1 f* C4 G
但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。
. W6 I: ]5 X7 a# R3 o宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。
M8 X! f9 V' f- o男性讲述金融时报:
& Y& Z& k: K0 |8 o$ c$ }0 [3 a“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
. U5 g k4 D$ [5 s! j呆滞的技术面
; z+ v- V* q1 O; A. t6 h/ E. N自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。 " u2 l! P+ d/ V$ }, x3 r
具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。 J; [, `7 u, S s
根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。 6 Q+ A$ n+ C/ }4 L3 m( Z8 |% `
! K$ x! X7 I. H3 G8 S( s$ y O编辑切换为居中 ' O6 R2 \" {3 `9 N' ^: {! ]
ETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置
" V. z2 y, j8 b. U. ^如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。 - C3 k. S6 i- c7 c3 p
交易所的ETH储备正在增加
( z5 }6 h8 R2 ~CryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出. 8 \8 ~( O1 x% \; X, v$ e9 J
自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。
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编辑切换为居中
* ^: s6 L4 M, Q以太坊外汇储备 : K+ X, G& W" i! l0 U" d
通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。 3 a# g6 W' E" w; `' t) h; [% L
来源：金色财经 |
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