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[lastpost] => 2797541 随着美伊紧张局势加剧，比特币或将跌破 9.6 万美元大关（转） 1768666218 叫我十三
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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。
# @$ i1 G; V7 y$ Q, ?4 |以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因. $ [% z, @0 H; P3 ^6 Y- V
此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。 5 x4 X( g/ ^1 m
以太坊基金集体亏损 $ p( I. M4 `( q4 J- R
根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。
9 J5 b+ ]+ Y: y, s与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。 $ x7 v) n! E6 M' ^
与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。
9 g4 W+ x0 [/ `# x6 g
9 I) ?! [# M: R) b6 Y; F* H4 F编辑切换为居中 1 z# Y7 m7 ~- G s& j! _
流入/流出加密资金(按资产)
$ c- E( n- K" J' B- f2 J这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。 % O; D1 D# W0 L+ m; W& g: y
以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。
, C' x* Q' r" V& \7 V1 Z/ T
8 C4 R! ?( H+ y! x4 {$ S编辑切换为居中
; B: z5 g2 U1 _1 Q# i2 F! N6月5日的TVL以太坊 0 N) d9 Y3 k4 v! F8 `8 k# ]
但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。
/ c' F$ m G8 q( ^宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。
% m$ X% Y0 t N男性讲述金融时报: 9 R# I+ o* O, C5 _- A* _/ d
“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
+ ~ |2 H! ~+ V( q+ q" W% Q i呆滞的技术面 " K& a- ^! f. j: r9 s+ i# B' \) |
自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。
$ `8 J! u5 F- v7 b+ ^具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。
; E% Q% s* \& P; |根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。
. S8 b4 I$ m: ]1 Y
" g( q& @" P5 z% u, ^+ G* T编辑切换为居中
' c7 s& Z6 E2 C4 g( w+ tETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置
* e( b. d( v7 J# A+ A- M如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。
, Q4 H$ W# ^9 [3 D% x交易所的ETH储备正在增加 ) F% ^6 c; ^9 W. o T
CryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出.
4 M, m* l) \9 F. c" \自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。 ( u. n+ k2 k1 U, R: j
: G! k9 x, X: f) c2 s$ v' M编辑切换为居中
8 T; F$ V$ x& J& g以太坊外汇储备 ; ]. I7 x8 U- @; e. e
通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。
7 v) s {$ T2 i5 p+ P7 ?5 W- F9 ^5 _6 K# N来源：金色财经 |
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