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[lastpost] => 2796271 比特币价格在 9 万美元至 9.4 万美元之间波动——一场大行情即将到来（转） 1768281881 whywhy
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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
. G3 d' }6 L$ y2 ^; Q; |. P0 A. m余勋也不例外、
4 h5 [2 |( S8 D, e: V; ]0 x* X/ F其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 # p2 D! t+ k: \
是保经济的重要决策！ , ~/ [- T' E$ s3 b8 H
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
* R6 w" q. G, P/ b2 n9 H9 W+ R# {低点26700-32400、 1 ~. }3 m" W5 x, V
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
) \2 @- ~- {8 A" u% T9 z" F但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 3 ?# i$ K. v4 ~4 ?( T9 o$ b& `) ^
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
8 P' z8 @' Z S: c0 |3 ]涨幅就已回撤过半！ / |) w1 n- n- Y' o2 `* ~& M) v5 P) B
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 1 T" s( A5 f6 y4 q5 d
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 0 j+ R( L% D& [9 a* @9 H5 D
其次、 1 Q* ?+ Y/ M# m {
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 8 q! B% [$ X' w% m( s; O% l
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
& `1 B$ q; u& L6 I1 v/ p等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 / V; Y6 t9 q$ i; h: t4 t
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 - s ^$ ^) d8 W, k
但回到币圈、
# r' X" }' g9 L0 ]7 \: b$ v3 F. \% c去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 - c, }( K4 x: h/ J
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
5 ?5 i; h$ W) i2 ?6 l9 b8 n/ ~而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
$ A! j! z( H* d! j& R个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 " v9 g0 q: Z# r' x+ {/ L6 j
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
$ g+ j4 u; P, N对当前的底部、影响有限。 % X: W4 u' c6 S7 q
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
/ l& k9 A4 S+ m6 ~: C; }& a8 j所以27000、即是 1 ^3 ?, ?; W8 a) K! }/ S
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
7 g) u0 J0 D. E/ j" T r( e+ E同时还是去年放水初期低点、 " K7 ?& ~, }& L7 V) J
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 . C! L# ]) K1 H4 `5 Z9 m
由此得出的结论是、 " G8 k9 y( @6 v, d* U/ S/ C d/ f: Y7 r
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 & _" i1 J' E7 `# v1 d
点位不会出现太大偏离。 % `* g. V: p+ p' I7 B
综合以上、
# d! r) ~4 z9 n: d) R! i9 b5 O' y( J美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
$ B$ {2 ]+ a! |1 X在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
' h; F8 t$ C6 E2 K那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 1 X2 g5 s, U4 [3 M1 Z
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 " L( U+ T" K7 {& v
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 0 m" p/ C+ k0 z9 E
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
0 k! c, P; L+ B8 B7 W* r7 V. i* p美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 & \9 D! B! [7 j+ U% N. R
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
0 ^( n1 }3 [& V% ]1 h1 h: m6 M大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 0 |% ~ u/ j" ], U7 ~ C6 K
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 1 e, X+ h9 [& x K% r4 m: y
高空需至31700-32000间布局、 7 d' M# K$ p2 l$ o2 X0 F& K
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 : z f, X& X* t0 x1 k
得不偿失。
7 I1 O1 W5 u0 } `: }' u3 O来源：金色财经 |
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