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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
8 T9 [7 n2 A# }; o, K' g余勋也不例外、
4 ?+ M2 k! m0 t- s其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 % I; {$ F3 X3 V# Z8 E3 ^
是保经济的重要决策！ 9 J2 C- n# {7 L( d
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
- w7 r" M& D, r% i) A' ^低点26700-32400、
# E( N4 u+ I0 W6 s' K7 K. z反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 & M& A4 m4 W/ T. ]( J) a9 C
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 ( \$ }3 u. O; Y3 q+ p: c: T
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
8 \8 B# t: m3 @( }, @, [& l涨幅就已回撤过半！
5 G% j1 ~& M0 x, E M. B所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
( x! r' S6 r* H不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 * H' {6 i/ d: Q j; ~1 Z/ f& w* y' [" A
其次、
. B6 P) F- ]# Y1 B缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 ' }5 \; f2 w; \2 G
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
( C) v$ p1 H/ @" O- H! x# u等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 " A5 F* v( [- p7 f4 h2 `3 o$ F
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 m* Z% H; T! k# F! U, b2 q- P
但回到币圈、 - s# p+ W7 R$ R/ P
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
& [- x/ I! p; I' v6 ~1 y, |2 `& P4 g在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 + D: _ F. c0 x# U* q, y
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 * l1 ]% [: }; ~% }/ L- m
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
# k5 a x3 l' E! t2 @' ]缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
7 w1 Q! h2 i- |+ r+ d' \. A# c6 N0 a2 s对当前的底部、影响有限。
8 G5 b! X( `0 i+ o3 z' x/ ]0 Q最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 . c- `/ i. |; X% B# v0 X/ F0 v
所以27000、即是 1 A* _8 r5 q0 l$ B6 a. {. W( q
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） 7 y- X4 \, M) k+ p4 {+ l9 A0 Q4 X \
同时还是去年放水初期低点、
4 I% i5 U" z% J也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
" ?& p1 D9 @1 w2 a# m$ |由此得出的结论是、
$ A5 n- X" l# s, h加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
6 \$ ?3 P' p u7 h点位不会出现太大偏离。
& V4 S- f: V7 b' Z4 @综合以上、 : w7 u* X& t7 A6 e _. @, T8 I% }
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 . p5 k1 s0 i; K2 ~% |
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 9 e6 T$ {6 M( a0 s; ? G: B
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 ; ?( h$ I! R7 v' F
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
5 q0 A7 R& m9 Z: r9 M9 Z0 j那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
5 T3 g6 p% d" x& V+ E1 ^- v即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
- N" L$ d1 u" r) C$ ]" Y美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
% ^0 h# \$ ]: u8 E" a; ~, ^( K夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 - h2 P N/ `. ^5 K7 U7 ?
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
/ D, n0 X7 g1 U5 e J0 y I逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
, Z0 M6 C. \( ^/ b8 E$ P: Y* T$ A高空需至31700-32000间布局、 9 Z7 i' }0 F Q" A. j
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
- j# F9 P) K, S; j得不偿失。
+ \6 g" s1 [2 J2 M9 {来源：金色财经 |
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