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大小球盘本质上就是与全场入球总数相关的盘口,计算它的依据就是进球数的概率。1 k& ?5 t8 Q$ U J% ^* T' x: k' V: ~+ ~
我们先引入下列符号:
) ?+ T1 c {$ L5 g9 b$ \6 hPn(n=0;1;……;x)表示在一场比赛中可能出现的各个进球数的概率。
* |+ Z$ X# E; J* z$ o2 L' G" H即:P0=全场进0球的概率;P1=全场进1球的概率;……。
' u* ~6 J' Y) j1 Y6 p那么 ∑Pn=P0+P1+P2+……+Px=100%。8 H! n" g3 K) L( j- n, f
Bo表示大球的投注总数,D表示投注大球的回报总数额,O(Over)表示大球的赔率。" M' ^2 R) `* O8 |: j
Bu表示小球的投注总数,X表示投注小球的回报总数额,U(Under) 表示小球的赔率。: Q2 l& `: d3 D& Z5 [
0 T+ q9 k! P$ w/ X! F4 l
在一场比赛中,我们以G表示大小球的盘口(G为任意数);K表示全场入球总数的结果。+ V- }1 E1 T) x: |+ Y3 M- L
在任意盘口G下,全场比赛会出现如下3个结果:/ Y9 j) a3 P& v: R4 z4 y9 W% Z
1:K>G 即出现我们通常所说的大球。
, F/ H8 }3 q% I! _2:K=G 即出现我们通常所说的走盘。
6 v$ e6 v6 \% p n6 O4 d3:K<G 即出现我们通常所说的小球。
Z3 S5 y; b) c! G) |: x, @
; e) u, l, E/ H0 d! W2 o& x+ P0 B那么在此盘口下投注大球的回报总数额为:
# \& Z( h) _" k* D" T4 I6 fD1:(K>G)={Bo* O 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。7 i, ]6 \5 V& f2 _# s9 l7 n
D2:(K=G)={Bo 即走盘退回本金。
9 V/ A* `7 e7 WD3:(K<G)={0 即输盘失去本金。
& C0 r+ r+ l( J3 r# F3 S: d& i+ a: q6 h$ Q) W! i: b& j% \' A9 o4 y
同理在此盘口下投注小球的回报总数额为:& ]3 T8 j) \ L* \2 k9 I4 H7 a
X1:(K>G)={0 即输盘失去本金。
7 c9 p; o- K$ d! d! O0 DX2:(K=G)={Bu 即走盘退回本金。; X' b5 @2 |8 j; h3 d1 k7 ?5 L
X3:(K<G)={Bu*U 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。
9 m7 k3 E' D' z! }
- P: S q: o$ V6 ?下面分别描述大小球盘为2.5球;2.5/3球;3球;3/3.5球时的大小球盘赔率计算方法,其余盘口可以由此类推。
: M! t+ R& }: r# F6 w
4 e& d6 X5 V: e: ^. r1 C. \! ?1:大小球盘为2.5球(G=2.5)
% U6 @# {9 c% h& `! ^4 I
6 A( P/ x9 `8 _; E7 t0 O! q在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:) @* J9 ?0 t$ R
K=0 D0=0
' I* J# i2 K/ y, |7 ?, ZK=1 D1=0
1 m9 ^3 T8 |8 ~2 q ^; K6 oK=2 D2=0( s" C: ~! o7 p1 i) `: m: E
K=3;4;....x D3+= {Bo* O
5 Y( n! E0 a" j
3 {# q# @- m1 D7 {1 z, V投注大球的期望回报总数为:∑D=Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2)=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2)
$ a& [/ @- u' I' q) y. B" }在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
- X: E( I/ C) ]6 @. _( ` ∑D=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=Bo
: t. i; e4 e+ J+ G J O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=1
8 A$ B$ [9 L0 m/ _( v1 I 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=1/(1-P0-P1-P2)
) |+ \0 f. A6 ]5 | 或者表述为 O=1/∑Pn----------(这里n=3;4;……x)
1 b' S P9 |# {* p8 D; q. V3 q3 Z* b5 L* l7 f! G2 L6 P
在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:
9 P# g2 Z1 I& p: c: k/ QK=0 X0=Bu*U $ m! R+ t( r6 [& c; \
K=1 X1=Bu*U ) S! T; T3 _. F; o* Q9 s8 @1 \
K=2 X2=Bu*U
8 m1 c, d- D& W- G) H- a- pK=3;4;....x X3+=0, J, e" n, `4 M2 x; H4 R3 x6 e
' H) K# H3 }+ K' y7 j% ^5 Y投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U
- K' g6 ~0 d8 n# S4 |) c在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。! f9 M7 X. g1 r; s, I& |# y. Q; h
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U=Bu8 e s" v0 b v r( z
U*(P0+P1+P2)=1
; }5 W% Y6 N) ? 在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=1/(P0+P1+P2)
2 c( Z' h$ v2 |
2 p2 g7 G! M1 \' J% i2:大小球盘为3球(G=3)
, l, i' {+ s! U6 ?. @; \# @8 W% l: l
" Y1 ]. B( n3 U" Q2 F& y+ a在大小球盘为3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:- [1 j& T1 Z! s! c8 v
K=0 D0=0 & E }) m8 _5 r3 n) S% {: `
K=1 D1=0
N. w2 S4 j9 ]# J" u; m n n0 X- wK=2 D2=0/ n Y, r! q' C; }1 y. F9 L
K=3; D3= Bo
! y+ a6 U Y# A. P, `9 a& aK=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O
3 ]# d; |! R" A0 M/ g% s0 {# h! ~. ?8 X5 j+ n; Y! w8 Q
投注大球的期望回报总数为:+ v6 M0 A8 N/ d
∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)= P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)% u* @& j3 m5 d0 H' x
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
. i3 v8 d) q; ^' | ∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo ]9 T5 x" V9 W0 Z3 g/ Q+ m8 R7 D
P3+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1
! `4 G/ ~ m* Q- S- s; x 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)3 f# |9 i( S1 W7 }
或者表述为 O=(1-P3)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x)3 `4 y2 U# ?5 c# o& T2 F3 o5 @- B
4 \; J) \' L) p- x! ?+ z$ Q
在大小球盘为3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:
! ^3 m! f' O) D7 J" K8 PK=0 X0=Bu*U
r) T" E! o5 X& l# g) W* s4 }K=1 X1=Bu*U
! `5 M4 o! o3 w8 m! K; e; ^0 bK=2 X2=Bu*U " E# {4 D# ]9 i- V( d/ Z- x+ Z
K=3 X3= Bu
& t# | e2 i, \J=4;5;....x X4+=05 Z. E9 w. i& K" f1 w$ S
. D, Y' Q; r7 B2 H, c& k
投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu
" o' U0 n, S( K7 Z2 g在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。5 p7 C! a7 @) }# m
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu =Bu
' o4 @+ r. ]; M" @* { ~ U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3=1
. H, [; [9 x) |: z0 x 在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3)/(P0+P1+P2)
6 I, K4 C; K$ T: V4 M: l! F$ e3 g y2 y
3:大小球盘为2.5/3球(G=2.5/3): `$ A) w: e0 [6 D
6 h, |* `6 B- R6 T$ l ]
在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:) a3 S) L2 ~! }8 H. Y, U
K=0 D0=0
5 m* x* r+ D7 e& TK=1 D1=0
/ u% g1 H& ], B3 v+ u8 V; uK=2 D2=0
" j% L1 i1 `0 i4 G, v. R9 o sK=3; D3= Bo/2+ O*Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘赢盘)
+ G$ Y9 q7 m" P+ `K=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O 2 j l: O x/ I
% @- J; C- g9 g" I0 c t
投注大球的期望回报总数为:
) I( @" q$ M+ _+ ?% k% T z. @ ∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O*Bo/2+Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)# i& v4 n( K% i8 a1 v
= P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
" U8 A2 M" R4 i2 b% Y在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。- ` S% g& C2 Z4 G) p9 ^
∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo
5 J3 K% u* q. q( s, k P3/2+ O* P3/2+O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1# A/ O' Q# \1 @
O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3+ P3/2)=1- P3/2
5 m2 N; A$ X4 A$ l* p% E" W9 e 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3/2) 9 k+ X3 l# W! t# t1 c
. E, Y6 I* J& M2 D4 s% R在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:5 V/ R' q, X' C: l3 t4 [
K=0 X0=Bu*U . G3 `3 Z' W- h7 Y9 d5 c, |
K=1 X1=Bu*U
1 {! P* h* a* [3 X( d1 Z# k9 ?K=2 X2=Bu*U
9 b8 Z5 e" u* NK=3 X3= Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘输盘)0 n2 u7 r' ~& A* f
J=4;5;....x X4+=0
, r- y1 c: a [. [4 H* @: Q
* k9 @$ l8 N- Z( k投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2
2 [( d9 C5 D/ ^4 }# i在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。6 G& R g9 f" F" n5 |
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2 =Bu6 h) L M$ b; N% c" j3 z
U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3/2=1
# `8 B# a; e" P' u0 I 在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2)5 e7 c# o0 d' Z C. ~
- R; f1 W0 @4 K8 I6 g4:大小球盘为3/3.5球(G=3/3.5)
4 v" o( f; l8 Y' E* l/ z8 f
' W! l- {) b8 _$ n: v+ Q( n. T在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:
; @4 Z, p5 o" F: Q/ H" {K=0 D0=0
- k# b6 E. {. C( nK=1 D1=0 ) W& M- x$ t, T' L& p6 o
K=2 D2=0
/ p K+ y) {% S" p* u P5 RK=3; D3= Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘输盘) F4 m) d6 ?" U* G# W) G, L
K=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O
" z) r1 M: C0 r, | E. n& }
. ?7 \: M2 r; ~" W7 y6 Q# a投注大球的期望回报总数为:
7 i1 f7 J5 }9 g" x1 b/ V2 F ∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)
& i4 y! B$ z8 x6 V = P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)- c, _8 D2 D/ r% V, C0 H8 a; p& z+ ]
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。/ \! F4 H% T3 @& g5 y
∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo
' s' Y3 B/ [; W' c, Q3 V P3/2+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1
9 ? C2 o/ {2 y O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1- P3/2' C3 c3 a6 s7 Q- f0 c. R
在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)' d7 u8 S3 a4 q! ^ y/ M* S
或者表述为 O=(1-P3/2)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x)# G- A9 W, {7 k
* V$ |& Y b1 C" ]4 d. M- S在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:; A% w0 D. p4 \' l9 H4 R, s- n
K=0 X0=Bu*U
7 N' s. U, I) I, [* BK=1 X1=Bu*U & N% O% L. V7 T% p
K=2 X2=Bu*U
8 D7 G" q# |0 d# d$ l) \9 F8 ?K=3 X3= Bu/2+U* Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘赢盘)
* z" m3 J$ k8 @4 E" R/ l$ wJ=4;5;....x X4+=01 G4 U1 z3 H( Q
& e' P, Y4 y& j- ?4 j8 I2 ~" o
投注小球的期望回报总数为:
2 l& S8 \# ?; [( x1 ]- U0 q, u0 a" {. \ ∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/2
2 s! W1 ^: o7 F在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。" @, S; P/ R" c# T) B8 \* f4 C" Q! l
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/2 =Bu. k0 U: i* h7 G0 q( [
U*(P0+P1+P2+ P3/2)+P3/2=1* C m& ~9 E3 i+ ?! w. ?/ ]
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2+P3/2): v M; k" z8 W) W
% S _# e' K5 n- m9 X/ {, \7 y- o7 a
; Y0 j' a: ?* T5 }+ O. a+ S
一场足球比赛就是以主,客进球数最终是多少来体现其结果的./ f4 P4 t0 Q7 L, k% R
大部分博项的赔率都可以通过进球概率这个基本数据实现互相转换!+ {% ^5 l1 \# B7 f; S
. I& Y3 O4 @& u8 e- r. u3 `' ]P0 P1 P2 P3 P41可以由统计函数生成,也可以由开盘赔率计算得出,比如用波胆赔率计算。(这种方法计算出的Pn值有一定的偏差) |
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