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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
* o1 f6 j9 S) x: V1 C& a9 l) w8 A$ ?: V% D2 Z
其实原文标题不是这样的7 O" O! h8 P" ^- }- x9 S! c1 x
1 d& T2 j* F4 m% t6 s. {/ }这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
7 A" X+ t& F; j) L7 N! C- S; [1 K- r( l N; w/ e" n5 K. Y% \
6 U* z3 `1 p* T( |
有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...( r8 z& |3 ]; m( q
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
$ F7 X# c2 n! O& C1 R5 |! a# l& z8 d
「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
0 c2 a. K' O) k2 s; _1 e- O( H4 j$ q0 I1 u; a; r6 I- { d( ?
「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
. |# ], t+ q- Z8 m$ E1 w( D
, N* h- @0 s6 ~. L) x+ g3 r「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 / P8 _' S4 q* f! I
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」, [& K# q2 W6 A, x. W8 j
- ~' i5 D4 x( b [' s) L" q0 }1 j
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
; H( _& j: l$ {; O
5 W, b5 y; W1 u! m, {3 c* I4 k接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
1 k0 S) n# T4 w% c& g因此铜板较容易出现正面。2 E- o% _* `, m+ x; b' L1 M) \
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
! I* I+ l q. y/ ~9 S8 g因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
- G# M2 Z( l& y- E ~. F1 V心想赢定了。
3 B- `' T* j5 W/ d1 l; M + |9 }( V5 n3 w. J0 X ?" R
没想到开始不到半刻钟，
+ G2 h8 |+ y8 }* E& J$ a赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」- |0 K2 I6 v2 o3 n J
{: O, Y+ P4 w. T7 n- G, y' e赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
+ a8 b$ y3 `! q. s" b但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。* `9 e( L* a& N3 X& T0 U
+ ]* u" Z( |% q. _# d7 g$ k8 Q赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?: ~. c4 f+ x& v. b6 v0 X" V, \: @
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 0 e4 b. E3 f5 ^8 d6 S8 `! k
上帝回答道：# w) |3 ?% g* y1 H- }1 [
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
/ L' g$ \/ z+ b+ R% c$ ^「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
: i" e2 v2 y2 h$ B1 w( Q( |( a$ C「而不是先发生在我身上。」
+ E+ d* a) s$ J$ U1 z2 T- e! K$ n7 S3 T- S: M0 i
赌徒恍然大悟，
- Q3 @* A4 M9 y% R3 f原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，: N |5 ^1 j9 U$ R3 z& i
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
+ \( c3 |$ h8 M; g4 _1 h「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」6 t& o3 Z9 p/ v4 E: M) H7 u. o
上帝说完便不见踪影。
$ K" I$ j8 o" B0 f# I
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
# F O7 Q( I2 o若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
) B2 x. B1 }# S0 \1 o7 ^1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，% a# a5 L0 Y( u3 Y! }; v: h
对赌徒十分有利。
; \) a3 E$ V R; x8 _8 H$ e. r
( _8 g. z/ @$ W/ n但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，! F, x& R0 N& G7 d. r+ j
在还没掷到1000次之前，
6 ~; \% S2 s* I1 G仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。# b, E# U: i2 d/ x1 N
2 l! u _( N) N- x( M$ y
赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。% M! |+ N) @% [/ {3 D7 e
1 @+ |, C. x+ m$ f) C6 w 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
+ k! l; p8 h: O2 Z) P5 {
7 C; ~8 I8 s$ G) J: x 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
0 b r( n* ]% g+ d( Y6 x- O
/ f0 [: T0 C/ k/ M 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
6 i6 M& X: N& p% x4 m3 m
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