×
Array
(
[fid] => 6728
[description] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!
[password] =>
[icon] => 7c/common_6728_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[digest] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 0
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 1
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 3
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 加精华
[action] => digest
[fids] => 6966,6903,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] =>
[rules] => 1)发布主题帖+1经验+1活跃币,回贴+10华小分
2)Lv.1及其以上级别会员可以发布主题帖,Lv.1及其以上会员可以回帖
4)转帖请在主题上标明
5)禁止发布与本版块无关的主题(违反,帖子转移到相关版块,并扣50经验)
6)禁止回复与主题无关的帖子(违反,帖子删除,并扣10经验)
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[137] => 体育菠菜玩法规则
[138] => 体育菠菜心得方法
[139] => 体育菠菜问题咨询
)
[icons] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 81 83 84 87 89 90 91 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8 92
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] => 足球,篮球,体育,规则,打法
[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[sort] => 0
[orderby] => 2
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 5
[imagewidth] => 200
[imageheight] => 150
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 900
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6831
[type] => forum
[name] => 体育知识讲座
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 5
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 2735
[posts] => 23139
[todayposts] => 0
[yesterdayposts] => 0
[rank] => 113
[oldrank] => 113
[lastpost] => 125127 升降盘理论 1741350473 france89
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 1
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 0
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 0
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2772 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
一、我们先假设一个抽样数W={W(ij)|i,j∈N}, W(ij)就是比赛的进球结果,i,j分别表示主客队的进球数。
' s0 W$ W7 [+ W7 _4 y: w$ p* r那么,平局、主胜、客胜就有以下表达式:
% v8 `* l& _4 S& K. nA(d) = {W(ij)|i=j, i∈N, j∈N}1 e1 F, Z8 [& B3 `9 v! S* A/ g* x& k4 l
A(h) = {W(ij)|i>j, i∈N, j∈N}" |7 c( a G; a3 I% c. O9 `
A(a) = {W(ij)|i 接着我们引入一个符号P(i)表示平胜负的概率,P(Ai)∈[0,1]:. F) s1 K! `/ o4 _! P# c- e7 G g/ Z4 H
P(i)=P(Ai), i∈{0, 1, 2}5 {+ k, z9 m2 F9 u, } t/ p
二、首先来说说平手盘(即0:0Handicaps或我们经常在国外上看到的(Moneyline)
" @# w6 _- i# l$ `: h l: Z9 q5 h假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:
: |# p* L" E1 s" @4 d% {2 V: u{b(h) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生& W9 z6 F0 \. v
R(1)={O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
. W( ~# d% D$ d1 k# m{0 , 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生( u, p; {1 O1 C: V
以及3 I4 u5 L" C" b! ^, ?. S
{b(a) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
' G; W9 k7 [4 HR(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生/ Q. i1 u" M4 o% l$ @- y
{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的A(a)结果发生& G6 \& q' A) @. |5 P! j( I
如果O(h)表示平手盘下的主队赔率,O(a)表示平手盘下的客队赔率
* ~; T& k" i3 a- B那么投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
2 n7 E. n: [* N& WE[R(1)]=P(d)*b(h)+P(h)*O(h)*b(h)=b(h)*[P(d)+p(h)O(h)]' D1 i. x$ G; a; A
E[R(2)]=P(d)*b(a)+P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*[P(d)+p(a)O(a)]' K. @+ V6 }# ~, {' d" Q
按照真实赔率(暂不包含庄家优势),我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等
+ ]) A2 @" u- S$ Z$ ~E[R(1)]=b(h)*[P(d)+p(h)O(h)]=b(h)
1 f. d( f8 j6 V* W2 x" P: sP(d)+p(h)O(h)=10 ^- V& ]! M7 I3 z" q0 E2 H
O(h)=(1-P(d))/P(h)-----这里就得出平手盘下计算主队赔率的公式
: p; q& @2 ?9 @+ TE[R(2)]=b(a)*[P(d)+p(a)O(a)]=b(a)- r8 X9 l4 \' I3 X, x
P(d)+p(a)O(a)=1
* |8 d8 i K! d* b5 Z& ^3 HO(a)=(1-P(d))/P(a)-----这里就得出平手盘下计算客队赔率的公式
- v$ X, g: D8 `. [) I0 u6 B9 H在极端情况下,可以认为平手盘亚洲赔率(或moneyline),就是在不发生平局结果条件下(就是公式中P(d)=0),主胜客胜概率的倒数# `% b$ ]% r6 S
三、半球盘的计算描述
/ |6 A: H' s5 h& i- M5 M接着我们来看看主队(HOME TEAM)受半球(1/2:0 Handicaps的情况)6 I' K/ i$ T$ S& o4 M
还是假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:7 S, J, i S+ f7 _9 K* U
{O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
' C/ w" U" j) ]# WR(1)={O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(h)结果发生: c3 s: P9 X4 J) f* X
{0 , 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
# m+ l8 I; E" \5 `0 B以及* p! Q, F4 g; c, F2 m
{0 , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生3 G0 t* R' Q1 k% x( a% p
R(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生) [* T! w; e9 g3 I
{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
1 c/ ~% l2 ^ R' f" b如果O(h)表示受半球盘下的主队赔率,O(a)表示客队赔率0 _. k) ]! |: x% o) D: ?' x
投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
8 B6 f7 S5 N6 e7 g% p# BE[R(1)]=P(d)*O(h)*b(h)+P(h)*O(h)*b(h)=b(h)*O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]# y8 }8 V' J z
E[R(2)]=P(a)*O(a)*b(a)& o% e" c/ b, o9 [& c9 n* T& p6 Z
假设实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等
" D; h p$ d# J7 Y% ^8 ^2 |E[R(1)]=b(h)*O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]=b(h)) N7 ?# Y" Y' K/ [7 ~; L( v
O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]=15 q$ r0 j1 e6 J8 E" M
O(h)=1/[P(d)+p(h)]
& z3 l8 C0 J7 a; j2 w8 C* \/ [E[R(2)]=P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)
: z+ x9 ?2 X& Y: w* IP(a)*O(a)=1
4 i5 Q8 @3 }) u: gO(a)=1/P(a)4 D) `2 D0 n- I# r( m# u
同样道理可以计算让半球(0:1/2 Handicaps)的亚洲盘赔率1 M/ f* o, ~$ ^( ]3 K; F
O(h)=1/p(h)/ i5 |) Z; {; Z
O(a)=1/[P(d)+p(a)]8 Y) c6 m6 O# @& ?) ]
四、平半球盘的计算描述( I$ F0 F. b/ v& E: X3 u
这个稍复杂一点. w( Q! b2 C, w2 n
接着我们来看看主队(HOME TEAM)受平半球(1/4:0 Handicaps的情况)
6 T& N3 }# s1 U' { J/ q还是假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额计算:
) O2 i/ o1 v R: E# c{[O(h)+1]/2×b(h), 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
3 h+ W! J0 W+ S4 b) DR(1)={O(h)*b(h), 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
( K7 m6 H$ W+ I{0, 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生 X$ j1 @" m7 ^7 ^3 `
以及* ]# u7 V% K# N9 k4 P1 B
{1/2×b(a) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
+ _; e% J3 x- X" p9 _$ z2 jR(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生6 I6 {" Q" l# k4 M1 N' k
{O(a)*b(a), 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
' k# N; p: m1 n9 i投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
4 w% L: m! O$ c1 kE[R(1)]=P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}×b(h)+P(h)×O(h)×b(h)=b(h)*(P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h))
/ Z4 Z, n8 v' FE[R(2)]=1/2×b(a)×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*[1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)]
) e: c8 F0 n2 n) N+ }4 V和上面计算过程相似,得出:
3 \1 g3 r7 m. e- h# q' U# ~E[R(1)]=b(h)*(P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h))=b(h): [9 V9 m) s4 s5 }7 T3 A
P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h)=1
" |, |9 Q+ F+ f3 `; h- E8 YO(h)*[1/2*P(d)+P(h)]+1/2*P(d)=1
$ _3 w! f* u8 E1 j1 c, nO(h)=[1-1/2*P(d)]/[1/2*P(d)+P(h)]=(1-P(d)/2)/(P(d)/2+P(h))
# R% s5 x; G# e) d( G, M3 e: fE[R(2)]=b(a)*[1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)]=b(a)
, l% h. F+ x9 D1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)=14 s" C% X/ C& s. e. z
O(a)=[1-1/2×P(d)]/P(a)=(1-P(d)/2)/P(a)* O3 g9 G/ S0 L, o- f4 ^
同样主队让平半就分别是
* c9 d* C+ _6 V9 K, _O(h)=(1-P(d)/2)/P(h)
/ y2 s+ C1 K, }5 D7 L4 XO(a)=(1-P(d)/2)/(P(d)/2+P(a))
' z- g6 q+ o( c2 Z五、一球、两球等整数盘(这里先暂时说主队让1球的情况,0:1,Handicaps,其它可以类推的)- E$ Y0 k) a u9 N7 m/ W1 [: F
可以采用类似公式,在(一)中我们分别用A(d)、A(h)、A(a)描述平局、主胜、客胜事件的发生。现在改用另外的符号代替,如B(d)、B(h)、B(a),同时除了平、胜、负概率P(i)(i=d,h,a)外,还需要引入一个一个概率值P(hX)来代表主队赢一球(X=1)、二球(X=2)...的概率,下面来进行演算6 k2 Z$ x, i% G" @8 A
B(d) = {W(ij)|i=j+k, i∈N, j∈N,k∈N}
& r9 F" @% N g: I3 RB(h) = {W(ij)|i>j+k, i∈N, j∈N,k∈N}( X" z0 s: K q0 `+ L+ S/ Q
B(a) = {W(ij)|i i,j分别表示主客队的进球数,k代表让球数
* u, t) t' d6 G7 J3 \接着,假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:' F& h) `" E8 `! y% Q' h
{b(h)*O(h) , 即上面所述的B(d)结果发生
7 z# q3 w7 p$ C; e ]) l x' W- TR(1)={b(h)-O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的B(h)结果发生# Y" Y8 ?0 x& _& b; G6 N
{0 , 即上面所述的B(a)结果发生
& b+ I% W7 F8 ]) h1 [2 j+ w以及* A" }, }2 E( f0 g
{b(a) , 即上面所述的B(d)结果发生
5 o- ^0 m5 X) k/ X! pR(2)={0, 即上面所述的B(h)结果发生1 n1 w, r0 K) W- B+ G! [% ^* \ e
{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的B(a)结果发生' E# h) @5 ?9 D. ?* ]
投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
1 s: J+ @* ^0 r5 c* b2 L: HE[R(1)]=P(h)*b(h)*O(h)+P(h1)*(b(h)-O(h)*b(h))=b(h)*[P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)]
" e8 `. K9 X/ D; x6 g/ J" O* B! mE[R(2)]=P(h1)*b(a)+(1-P(h))*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*(P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a))% {$ f+ r1 r9 P. s9 h* f: Z
假设实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等
5 Q8 I6 V) B/ _; OE[R(1)]=b(h)*[P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)]=b(h)7 n# U" }* ?' K6 G6 }/ B: J7 w. d
P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)=1
7 b' G! L5 {& f0 G& FO(h)*(P(h)-P(h1))=1-P(h1)* B- Y$ i5 P7 N) }0 \
O(h)=(1-P(h1))/(P(h)-P(h1)), R2 Q3 @. t6 R3 L
E[R(2)]=b(a)*(P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a))=b(a)
; }! s; s G; HP(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a)=1 s' M5 \* w. O
O(a)*(1-P(h))=1-P(h1): N* N4 v3 o/ x
O(a)=(1-P(h1))/(1-P(h))
6 r( e" N D9 R& h* E$ [# ^以上(五)部分是让一球的情况,让两球以上整数盘和反过来受让整数盘是可以同样演算的。
4 D2 e+ L l2 e( S" F1 O简单小结一球或整数盘,其实理论的演算过程不难,但是如何准确计算赢整数球的概率(P(hi)就是其中的难点,这已经涉及到如何用相对动态实力差或球差来计算各种赢球概率(是指赢1、2、3...球的概率,也可以说是赢球比分概率)的问题,使用自己数据模型里的数据来计算。 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 8046 小时
本月在线: 7 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 59 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 91 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 105 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 1426 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 1116 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 分钟
本月在线: 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 4844 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 6295 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 5136 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 1814 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|